スペインの信用金庫の投資機関のAhorro Corporacion は、スペインの2013年の経済成長(経済沈降?)率は-1'5%と予測
Ahorro Corporación apuesta por valores defensivos para 2013
La previsión de la gestora de las cajas es que el PIB se contraiga un 1,5% el próximo año
Estos expertos ven un potencial del 7% para el Ibex a 12 meses vista
Abertis, Almirall, CAF, DIA, Ferrovial, Miquel y Costas, OHL y Tubaces, sus acciones favoritas
David Fernández 25 OCT 2012 - 12:39 CET
Savings Corporation committed defensive stocks for 2013
The forecast of the manager of the boxes is that GDP will contract by 1.5% next year
These experts see a potential of 7% for the Dow to 12 months away
Abertis, Almirall, CAF, DIA, Ferrovial, Miquel y Costas, OHL and Tubaces, your favorite stocks
David Fernandez 25 OCT 2012 - 12:39 CET
Savings Corporation (AC) has been the company's early-morning in presenting macroeconomic and stock for next year. The investment company savings banks provides an economic recession in the Spanish economy. Specifically, predict that GDP will contract by 1.5% in 2013, down significantly greater than expected by the Government in the Budget (-0.5%). "Domestic demand will drain 4.7 percentage points to growth, concatenating six years of setbacks, due to job losses, the necessary fiscal consolidation and lack of investment. External demand will contribute positively again, both by increased exports as imports fall, "Marisa EXPICA Deck, director of strategy for AC.
Among the few green shoots that are the experts in the macro picture is the fact that finally begin aa corrected the imbalance in the current account. "Spain will present surplus will not need additional funds from abroad and begin to reverse the trend of deterioration in the net international investment position," says Deck. Although external debt maturity (estimated around 300,000 million per year) will require renewal by foreign investors, experts believe AC generating domestic savings will generate more confidence and maintaining trends.
In chapter public deficit from AC not believe that Spain can meet the objectives due to recessionary environment in which we find ourselves. Specifically, estimates the general government deficit will amount to 5.8% and 3.1% of the IB in 2013 and 2014, respectively, failing therefore the targets agreed with the European Union (deficit of 4.5 % of GDP next year and 2.8% in 2014). This investment company would be reasonable to believe that "flexibility" austerity policies to boost growth somewhat.
In story to the possibility of applying for a new bailout Spain, Deck thinks everything will depend on the discretion to grant the Government markets. "The petition for financial aid will depend on the difficulty that the Treasury has to raise capital in the markets "he says.
In this economic environment, the market forecast for 2013 AC not to brag. Its experts estimate that the Ibex 35 may close next year at 8,340 points, a level that is located approximately 7% above current levels to the selective index traded. "We are inclined to midsize companies with competitive advantages clearly identified and specific niche businesses listed at attractive levels," says Irma Garrido, director of AC analysis. The Spanish equity portfolio that company recommends for 2013 consists of the following values: Abertis, Almirall, CAF, DIA, Ferrovial, Miquel y Costas, OHL and Tubacex. In short, a very defensive portfolio for a course that is equally complex boasts 2012 from the point of view of investment.
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