経済研究機関は、スペインの2013年の経済成長率(経済沈降率?)は、ー1'5%に、政府はー0'5%と予想??
Los servicios de estudios creen que la economía caerá el triple que el Gobierno
La cifra de consenso de los analistas triplica la caída del 0,5% que espera el Ejecutivo
La nueva proyección es cuatro décimas peor que la de julio
Jesús Sérvulo González Madrid 23 OCT 2012 - 12:14 CET
Research services believe that the economy will triple the Government
The number of triples analyst consensus of 0.5% drop expected by the Executive
The new projection is four tenths worse than July
Jesus Gonzalez Sérvulo Madrid 23 OCT 2012 - 12:14 CET
The pillars that underpin the budget of 2013, which was discussed Tuesday in Congress do not seem very strong in the eyes of the main services of private studios in the country. Economic forecasts of 19 centers of economic analysis concluded that the economy will shrink by 1.5% next year, according to the panel of forecasts for the Spanish economy released yesterday by Funcas. This prediction has been used three times to the Government (-0.5%) to prepare the accounts next year. Poor prospects for Executive met since the forecasts of private analysts expected revenues in the Budget would be overvalued and underweight expenses.
The situation is not new, but aggravated. When a few weeks ago the IMF published its growth forecasts in concluding that the Spanish economy will fall by 1.3% in 2013, government officials downplayed these calculations and emphatically defended their best estimates. "What the IMF says it is not written in bronze," he said then Economy Minister Luis de Guindos. But the executive will need more than a chisel to exceed analysts' forecasts. 10 of the 19 studies analyzed by services Funcas their forecasts have worsened since the last report in late July, when he predicted that gross domestic product (GDP) of Spain would fall by 1.1% next year. "The forecast for 2013 has been cut four tenths to 1.5%," says Funcas in the document released Tuesday.
"The review is of a more negative for domestic demand, which is now estimated to fall by 3.8%, although part of this decline will be offset by a greater contribution of the external sector," he adds.
moreThe Bank of Spain says that GDP continued to fall in the third quarterGuindos defends the stability of the economy "in the negative"The government deficit to September was 3.9%
But in every storm there is a ray of light. Analysts have slightly improved the rate of decline of the economy this year. Estimate that GDP will contract by 1.6%, one tenth less than its previous forecast of July. "The decline in GDP will be somewhat lower than expected in the last panel," warns the Foundation of Savings Banks, which justifies this improvement because "the available indicators for the third quarter point to a decline in GDP not much more intense than the the second. "
The decline in GDP for next year is mainly due to the sharp drop in domestic demand, which will decrease by 3.8%, according to analyst estimates collected Funcas panel.
The unemployment rate is another indicator for which there is no consensus between the government and private analysts. Although the calculations expected to close the year are similar (calculated study services will reach 24.7%, versus 24.6% of the Government), the forecast for next year show large differences. The average analyst forecast Funcas analyzed by the unemployment rate will rise to 26.1% of the labor force, compared to 24.3% expected by the Government. With respect to employment growth, Funcas expected to drop 2.6% next year, compared to slight decrease of 0.2% forecast by the Government of Rajoy. In addition, analysts forecast worsen their six tenths from the previous report.
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