経済危機での430'000'000(4億3000万)人による欧州議会選挙
Examen a una Europa en crisis
Más de 400 millones de europeos dictarán un veredicto retrospectivo de la gestión de la crisis
Candidatos a presidir la Comisión Europea
Un nuevo liderazgo, por José Ignacio Torreblanca
GRÁFICO Orientación política de los gobiernos de la UE
GRÁFICO La economía europea: crecimiento y desempleo
Claudi Pérez Bruselas 27 ABR 2014 - 00:00 CET
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Consideration of a Europe in crisis
More than 400 million Europeans dictate a retrospective verdict of crisis management
Candidates for president of the European Commission
A new leadership, by José Ignacio Torreblanca
GRAPHIC political orientation of the governments of the EU
CHART The European economy: growth and unemployment
Claudi Pérez Brussels 27 ABR 2014 - 00:00 CET
Elections as a court of last resort. The EU is mired in a devastating economic crisis , hampered by ineffective governance that fails to reconcile divergent national interests , overwhelmed by a steady trickle of immigrants who do not know how to absorb, stunned by a democratic deficit that leads people to consider what serves the policy if elected decide little ( that " can not choose " President Rajoy on cuts ) .
The race of the 25 -M , which will carry 413 million voters to issue a retrospective verdict on the management of the crisis, and also to explore the political calls to trace the path in the next five years . The Union needs courage after the first faint signs of recovery, not hide nor the fierce social unrest in some countries or doubts about the credibility of institutions . The parties aim to turn at least a few degrees , the direction of European transatlantic in big (economic, foreign , immigration) policies and the devilish details : how to manage the Greek restructuring , dealing with Germany's refusal to Eurobonds , how regulate the banking stuff.
The election manifestos of the major parties seem nuanced : popular insist reforms; Social Democrats emphasize more growth than austerity. Competing proposals for powerful games but with fewer options ( liberal , green , left) and the strength of populism . Gone are the days of the decisions behind closed doors : the treaty obliges to consider the election results to name the president of the Commission , but with the usual European and estomagante ambiguity. These choices are really : "If the president is not one of the front runners will be difficult to tell people that their vote is worth something ," warns a European source .
Economic policy: Austerity and growth, growth and austerity
A secular stagnation on the horizon, a strike at maximum with peaks worthy Great Depression , a problem aggravated by excessive debt deflation risk . The vital signs of the European economy collide with my optimism Eurocrats . But the electoral programs show that the crisis is still there, very much alive : the economy is the backbone of all the manifestos of the parties, after five years of austerity " turned into a thinly veiled euphemism for the death certificate of solidarity as a value EU inspiring " ( the strategy of discomfort, José María Ridao ) . Popular and Social Democrats voted the same 70 % of the time in the European Parliament ; It is not surprising that their programs seem. " There are differences of nuance , but the two major parties consider markets have calmed down and that the crisis is over," writes the German economist Fritz Scharpf , Max Planck Institute .
HOME
The manifesto of popular demands follow austerity to return to growth through reforms and more reforms , a linguistic whiplash cited 33 times in the text and in many cases can result in cuts. The social democratic program , full of ambiguities , uses the same language of wood, but with a different accent, focuses on growth and even promises to raise spending policies against youth unemployment , always with an eye on the fiscal hole . "We must reduce the deficit ," says the document, which tiptoes on the restructuring of Greek debt , or eurobonds . Their leader, Martin Schulz , has gone further: consider nonsense mantra zero deficit and commitment to balance public accounts , but without forgetting the growth stimulus through infrastructure and a less orthodox monetary policy (Europe : the latest opportunity ) . Schulz is in favor of giving more leeway to France for the deficit , unlike the popular Jean -Claude Juncker ; that will be the corner stone of European policy in the near future.
The French socialist government has just taken a turn in the opposite direction to that proposed by Schulz , with the freezing of pensions and salaries of officials. " Commission and ECB spent years demanding reforms and supply policies, disaster when the problem is clearly in demand. Now France adds to the madness . European economic policy in recent years is the story of a mistake, " said Paul de Grauwe , of the London School of Economics.
La bet liberals is strengthening the single market ; Greens promise stimuli with energy policies and infrastructure . The United Left is the only party that openly speaks of "ending austerity programs ." "They saved the banks and destroy society : pure barbarism. Must convene a summit as 1953 , which was canceled 60% of Germany's " debt ( Southern asked for the floor , foreword by Alexis Tsipras ) .
All training , without exception , are committed to strengthen regulation of the financial system , primarily responsible for the crisis, and advocate for getting banks to lend again through the ECB or the European Investment Bank.
Energy: The best policy is not there ( to Russia )
More than half of the EU 's energy supply comes from outside , and that number will only increase, no change , reaching 70 % in 2040 , according to the International Energy Agency . The Union has no fossil fuels and faces a scenario of rising energy rivalry, but has not yet managed to do homework ; not even been removed elements of irrationality and lack of interconnection gasística Spain .
Only the challenge of Russia in Ukraine has activated alarms : Europe now wants to reduce its dependence on Russia and improve interconnections. The parties are unanimous : with different emphasis , supporting investments in clean energy and are committed to diversifying the sources . The Greens are long, the most active and the most ambitious emissions reduction , an aspect in which the major parties have been relaxed about the difficulties in reviving the economy .
Immigration : Policy twitching and fear
The UN estimates that there are 214 million migrants around the world ; past two decades , the rise of immigration in Europe was 40 %. The continent is aging at full speed and requires that tide of immigrants, but fears about from afar : when following the Yugoslav wars began arriving refugees from Central Europe, one of the German parties set around the country with posters legend The boat is full . Today , the British UKIP advertised on billboards with a clear motto: " 26 million people are unemployed in Europe . What jobs are you looking for? "Reads an ad in which a huge index finger pointing to anyone reading that sentence.
Since the outbreak of the crisis, the Eurosceptics have turn the debate toward immigration . France of Sarkozy and Hollande , the British Conservative Government and even Merkel 's Germany spent months complaining about the alleged mass of European immigrants invading them and abusing welfare states . No figures substantiating this claim . The Commission seeks at all costs to save the free movement - one of the sacred pillars of the EU , but the trend in several capitals suggests activation administrative to try and discourage immigrants barriers. The electoral programs tiptoe around, but the ghosts appear in other areas: hard propose several formations asylum policy , the scapegoat for the rise of populist parties or openly xenophobic .
Folk want to strengthen Frontex (the mechanism of border control ) and prevent illegal immigration ; Social Democrats are committed to spend more on the integration of immigrants ; the radical left , however , calls for Frontex remove and prosecute those who employ illegal . The palm is carried by Le Pen and company : "I just Melilla removing illegal health, schooling for their children , social aid ," said Marine Le Pen a few days ago . His National Front took 6.4 million votes in the French presidential .
Foreign Policy : Goodbye, Cathy , bye
The major parties agree on the need to strengthen the outer profile of the EU after a term marked by the controversial work of the High Representative , Catherine Ashton. From Haiti to Syria , foreign policy has shone , in general, by their absence ; its action has been slow , reactive , often erratic , full of problems with coordination. And it has had little effect, despite some very notable exceptions (Iran, for example). The Ukrainian crisis is a kind of clock : brings hope to a dying NATO and EU forces to scramble , even if the big four (Germany, France, Italy and Spain ) are still awaiting profile that temporary subsides.
"We call for a common foreign policy , more as an aspiration than as reality. It remains an intergovernmental policy. How to avoid shows our weakness in situations such as the implosion of Yugoslavia or the Middle East peace ? " , Former President Felipe González wondered My idea of Europe. That question remains open beyond the beautiful slogans of some Europeanism both declarative and unwary . Conservatives and Social Democrats advocate a united action to make Europe a " global player " . But London and Paris have their own agendas , Berlin only now beginning to poke their heads and , among other partners , only Italy, Spain , Sweden and Poland have more regional highlights.
The foreign policy of the last stage was a kind of empty shell with some unforgivable oversights . "When NATO in 2008 discussed a future entry of Georgia and Ukraine , Russia's reaction was immediate : he went to war with Georgia. Far from taking note , the Union went ahead with policies partnership with the East to offer Ukraine an agreement; Russia's response was withering another time , "said a diplomat, " and it is a mistake to think of Ashton rusólogos team . "
Chapter defense deserves the attention of all groups. Popular Socialists and advocating closer military integration , without having to integrate armed forces. At the other end , United Left defend the " immediate withdrawal " of European NATO partners (and its solution) and calls for cuts in military spending. The Greens focus on promoting human rights and retrace some steps already taken : collaboration with the CIA in combating terrorism , for example.
Euroscepticism : Sharp rise of populism , which can make agendas
Disaffection towards the EU has increased exponentially since the beginning of the crisis. This applies to Spain and other countries of the South , but also so-called " creditors " ( Germany, Netherlands, Finland) : 60 % of Europeans now distrust the EU , according to the Eurobarometer . Eurosceptics and Europhobes (and in some cases even pro-Nazi and xenophobic parties) and sit on the benches of several parliaments , and have even become part of coalition governments . In France, polls give the National Front more votes than the Socialists , only slightly below conservatives.
In the UK, the anti-European UKIP also reap 20% of the vote and will be the second force , over the Conservatives. Alternative for Germany , Golden Dawn in Greece, the True Finns and fur diverse parties in Belgium, Holland , Austria and almost all countries, but not in Spain , show that anti-Europeanism is contagious : if the EU fails to resolve your problems economic risks add a democratic regression to stagnation and unemployment . Polls give the Eurosceptics between 17% and 27% of the vote on 25- M: " Its impact will be limited in Parliament for their difficulties ally , but have talent to mark agendas and influence national policy, as has been seen in France and the UK , "the analysis Mujtaba Rahman, Eurasia Group.
Regional Division: The North -South divide and nap ECB
" Creditor countries , and Germany in particular , have imposed their reading interests and moral crisis : the only solution to the problem was internal , social, devaluation of those who lived beyond their means " , writes the economist Charles Wyplosz . In 2008, the Commission published an extensive report to mark the tenth anniversary of the euro : " The coin is a success, a symbol of stability and integration ." Six years later, everything has changed. The North -South split worsens.
In the figures : vs. unemployment rates exceeding 25% in Greece and Spain , Germany and Austria have 5%. And ideas : the refusal of the North to Eurobonds or debt restructuring, no growth or inflation, condemning the South to a painful adjustment where it is arguable that the responsibility he has shown with cuts , Europe has responded with true solidarity . What does the ECB ? " With inflation at a worrying level , napping leads since November," said a community source ; refuses to undertake extraordinary measures despite the financial fragmentation and that low rates of inflation in the prevent cuts North South reap the expected results. "We must build bridges between North and South ," said Juncker without specifying further . "The EU and the ECB can not continue to give back to the fracture ," the socialist Ramón Jáuregui .
Enlargement : the spell of a larger Union vanishes
" The promise of a bigger and prosperous EU is unsustainable ? " Historian Tony Judt asked in an extraordinary book , A Grand Illusion . Against its natural instincts for decades , Europe runs lately tempted to withdraw into herself . Since the last wave of enlargement -12 new members between 2004 and 2007 basically block complaints about the excessive size of the EU - multiply this by the difficulties of governing Veintiocho . Moreover with the worst crisis in generations, with doubts about the validity of the social model ; with suspicion, in short, that the Union can no longer offered or herself certain assurances .
Experience the eastward enlargement made very uneven readings : fear on the right for a few reasons (immigration ) and left for other ( industrial relocation and social dumping ) . The party programs reflect these fears. The spell is over : only the liberals defend seamless expansion as a sign of identity that should continue.
More suspicious , popular rows and Social Democrats felt the enlargement fatigue : conservatives dismiss new revenue in the next five years ; Socialists are more ambiguous , but are on the same line. The CP closes the doors of the club in your program makes clear that a potential income will require not only that the candidate meets the required political and economic criteria , but that the EU retains the ability to integrate . " If the ability to integrate at risk " and that the leaders believe , " will undertake no new additions " summarizes the Conservative manifesto . Iceland, Macedonia , Montenegro , Serbia and Turkey - especially that virtually ruled herself with recent cuts freedoms - official candidates access are thus frozen until further notice.
Leadership within the union : Merkel and Draghi , or who rules in Europe
Run around wonderful definitions of Europe and its Union. " A new city on the hill " (Jeremy Rifkin ) , " The unique program tailored to our world and of our time " (Pierre Uri) , "democratic Heritage " ( Lula da Silva ) , " Unfinished Journey" ( Yehudi Menuhin ) . And less bucolic " Invention under critical failure " (Felipe González ) , " Gentil monster " (Hans Magnus Enzensberger ) and, above all , that filmmaker Wim Wenders Dart : "The idea of Europe has been reduced to the bureaucracy , and now people believe that bureaucracy is the idea. "
If there is no agreement on the definition, at least there is consensus about who 's in charge here : Chancellor Angela Merkel and ECB chief Mario Draghi. " For the first time , France is clearly the number two, and Germany , the undisputed leader ," said analyst Charles Grant. Merkel has ruled with an iron hand the EU until it became what Ulrich Beck calls "a German Europe " with a response to a financial crisis essentially based on fiscal austerity. And much disputed even by his intellectual header : " Berlin has been the catalyst for the erosion of European solidarity " ( The EU crisis , Jürgen Habermas) . Along with Merkel , Draghi is already true European sovereign : the governments has become troubled " puppets in the hands of the ECB, acting in accordance with a strange mixture of ideological and interest of the creditor countries dogmatism" says sociologist Ignacio Sánchez -Cuenca. It is unlikely that the role of Merkel and Draghi change ; Paris through a difficult internal situation ; London tends to its increasing irrelevance to europhobia . " Nobody coughs Merkel at the summits ," said one diplomat, " and the ECB has done nothing but win lots of power during the crisis ," although a different Commission " could turn at least some degree of transatlantic course ."
Telecommunications : ' lobbies ' pressures and delays
Ranks first digital challenges a high level of agreement between the political parties. All candidates advocate safer , cheaper and with fewer barriers to citizen telecommunications. That consensus has not prevented digital projects have been halfway through this term because the members - more vulnerable to pressure from big U.S. companies , have refused to advance in this field.
Europe does not have a genuine single market for telecommunications. And their companies have a much lower than U.S. size . That latter may change depending on who sits in the seat of President of the Commission: the popular Jean- Claude Juncker has said that the Union needs to " rethink its competition rules " , which until now have slowed by potential mergers harm to consumers: music to the ears of big industry .
Parliament has been very belligerent agendas that related to the internal market and civil liberties sector. There are two major remaining tasks . The most controversial is the standard of data protection , which became essential with the outbreak of the scandal of mass surveillance by U.S.. Pressure from Washington and technological giant has delayed the process. With shades , parties advocating hard data transfers to third parties of citizens , and ask tougher penalties for companies who misuse the information . The pressures of lobbies and consequent delays are also the norm with regard to end roaming ( cost of using mobile abroad) and with the reorganization of the telecommunications market . Parties advocate banish the practice in 2015 and prevent operators from blocking services like Skype phone calls .
Trade agreement with the USA : YES majority agreement , but with conditions
With 26 million unemployed and an economic sluggishness looming long , the Community institutions have promoted a trade agreement with the U.S. as a source of employment and wealth for the two territories . The negotiations have been hampered by two factors . The first is intrinsic to the process: the doubts about the hypothetical lowering of quality standards in Europe that would establish a free trade with the U.S. , in addition to the resistance of France in the cultural area . The second is foreign , but has managed to slow down discussions for months : distrust Washington following the scandal of massive tracks in the Union.
Aware that the electorate is sensitive to both arguments , the parties have warned against a deal that otherwise would not have sparked greater resistance . With the exception of the Liberals, who openly advocate signing in the next legislature , the other parties - qualify or reject directly , in the case of the radical left - agreement . Conservatives greet free trade with the U.S. " provided the highest European standards and elements of European identity are safeguarded ." The Social Democrats linked to the fulfillment of social , labor and environmental rights.
With similar arguments , the Greens go a step further and oppose the agreement " in their current form " because it weakens the European protection . Contrary to what happens in other cases, the Commission shall take into consideration the objections very matches . Without the approval of the Parliament can not approve any trade agreement. Beyond the complex technical details, "the covenant requires political push ; now lack will to move forward , "admitted a few months ago a senior EU executive .
CANDIDATES FOR THE EUROPEAN COMMISSION CHAIR
The Jean -Claude Juncker incombustible ( Redange , Luxembourg, 1954) Pilots candidacy popular protagonists of the crisis by its great weight in the Commission and Council.
The president of the European Parliament, Martin Schulz ( Hehlrath , Germany, 1955 ), leads to the Social Democrats. Merkel Critical of this exlibrero say " dissatisfied" with the current EU.
The former Belgian prime minister and president of the liberal group Guy Verhofstadt ( Dendermonde, 1953 ) is the face of the Liberals. His party could exert hinge .
The alluring Alexis Tsipras (Athens , 1974) representing United Left . Their messages , sometimes contradictory , raise passions , love and hate , in and out of Brussels.
The Franco-German tandem of unionist José Bové ( Talence, 1953) and Ska Keller ( Brandenburg, 1981) is the big bet of the Greens .
Marine Le Pen ( Neuilly -sur -Seine, 1968) is best known for a range of difficult groups to label face : xenophobic populist Eurosceptic , Europhobes , fascists, and .
0 件のコメント:
コメントを投稿