メキシコの経営者のカルロス·スリム=ヘルの欧州危機に対する面談記事、欧州の福祉社会国家は、財政破綻に直面,財政的に効率良く長続きするために福祉の効率化·合理化を促進
“Más que una crisis de Europa, vivimos un cambio de civilización”
El magnate mexicano opina que “Europa debe vender activos e invitar al sector privado a que haga la inversión que el Estado ya no puede seguir haciendo”
Vea el ESPECIAL EUROPA completo
ENTREVISTA. François Hollande, presidente de Francia
ENTREVISTA. Michael Bloomberg, alcalde de Nueva York
ENTREVISTA. Guido Mantega, ministro de Hacienda de Brasil
ENTREVISTA. Cui Hongjiang, analista chino
TRIBUNA. Desde la otra orilla. Por E. KRAUZE
Salvador Camarena México 17 OCT 2012 - 13:00 CET
"More than a crisis in Europe, we experienced a change of civilization"
Mexican tycoon believes that "Europe must sell assets and invite the private sector to make the investment that the state can not continue"
See full EUROPE SPECIAL
INTERVIEW. François Hollande, the French president
INTERVIEW. Michael Bloomberg, Mayor of New York
INTERVIEW. Guido Mantega, Brazil's finance minister
INTERVIEW. Cui Hongjiang, Chinese analyst
TRIBUNE. From the other side. By E. Krauze
Salvador Camarena Mexico 17 OCT 2012 - 13:00 CET
At 72 years old, the richest man in the world makes an argument against early retirement. Carlos Slim Helu has a busy schedule and not over a meeting when they are gathering around the table those invited to the next. In this interview on the European situation argues that in its current model built the welfare state in Europe has become unsustainable. He explains that, among other things, adjustments are required to ensure that those who are unemployed receive job training linked to new needs. Also calls for establishing a higher retirement age including a scheme where in recent years work less, although longer, workdays.
The honorary chairman of Grupo Carso (America Movil) offers his advice to exit the crisis sooner than: "What Europe must do two things: sell assets to lower its debt and deficits, but also invite the private sector to make the investment that the state no longer have to keep doing. "
Question. You recently stated in an interview: "You read the numbers and the numbers tell you what is going on." What the numbers say Europe? What's going on there?
Some recessive policies that are being followed to make the problem more acute settings
Response. It is a combination of numbers, concepts and is also about even with the history and evolution of things. Past 10,000 years, technology companies have been bringing the progress of civilization: the wheel, the alphabet, navigation, mills, everything. This progress has usually been gradual, continuous. But suddenly there are major technological changes, technological revolutions, causing large changes in civilization. Happened to industrial society, especially in its second stage, in the early twentieth century, and now with the technological society, advanced, accelerated. After passing through a postindustrial era we are living this new civilization in which the paradigms are very different from those of agricultural societies, where power was monolithic, had slavery, had no human rights. Today we are 180 degrees in reverse, this new civilization is about democracy, freedom, human rights, environmental care, competence, productivity, globalization ... This major technological change has many implications. After World War II there has been a great development in Europe, strong economic growth, population growth as well, but above all a great growth of government fiscal impact, making a substantially higher revenue and domestic product, besides that, have deficits. Then taking a large part of the GDP. And the main reasons for what is happening is that after World War II, the state governments and established a welfare state growing and became untenable. It is necessary to make some adjustments to the welfare state established. Structural changes are needed, you see that they are doing, and are turning to the traditional recipe adjustment fiscal deficit through tax increases or spending reductions. In the welfare state people are retiring at age 60 in some places, when life expectancy when someone reaches 60 years probably is 85 or more years, and is expected to continue growing. There is universal health programs, which are very important but often inefficient and open to tourists. Then begins to have health insurance that does not obey normal causes, but tourists take advantage of these conditions to make use of medical services, access or prosthesis surgery going to the country that provided free. The most serious is going on, and there they speak numbers in a relentless, is the large number of unemployed, especially young people. So from the standpoint of social, economic and overall is very worrying for Europe. And is not that the solution is thinking about it. It is not important if the GDP grows a point or two or less two. Anyway, the per capita income levels remain high, there will be a regression to levels of underdevelopment. The trouble is that as unemployment levels are very high, and that some recessive policies they are following adjustments to exacerbate the problem.
P. What structural changes are needed to the welfare state?
R. The retirement age should be increased, because in the past were much physical labor societies, in industrial society had to be in the machine, had to work physically and had a great wear. Now are service companies, where what matters is not physical force or physical work, but the experience and knowledge. In a knowledge society, is a sadness that the best age of man someone no longer busy when at age 60 is at its best.
The current welfare state and became untenable. The retirement age should be raised
P. Do you already be retired?
R. Oops, long! That is absurd. In a knowledge society, people with more experience and knowledge is wasted because you lose your job. I think there should be a much later retirement. I would say at age 70 to give a figure, thinking that people are going to live 85 more years when a person reaches 65 or 70 years life expectancy is higher, life expectancy can be 75 today or 77 when he was born, but already delivered the first 70 years of life can go forward. When they arrived at that age one is greater hope. On the other hand I think you need to look of course universal health continue, more efficient, better maintained, regulated, preventing abuse, smarter. You must also have social safety nets to an appropriate level and that retirement programs are paid by people trained for retraining. That is, I have no job, then rather than give me $ 1,000, yes, that's giving me, but I have to go to such a time at such an hour to train in X number of activities in which there will be demand for labor , where no request is no longer working. It is very important that governments explore, and specialists in general, where it will generate new jobs in the next 5 or 10 years from now train people for those jobs, and promote activities which will create these new jobs to make room for new people being sued. In addition it should also make employment programs, especially in the case of Europe, working with formulas of three or four days. Instead of five eight-hour days at work, that work 11 hours three days. The remaining three or four days would be a break that allows reading, entertainment, family life, access to culture, education, travel ...
P. It is a cultural change.
The nervous system of this civilization is the information technology
R. We are experiencing a complete change of civilization, with new paradigms and what we have to do are the structural changes that this requires. You have to make the changes. You can not think that there is a 50% of unemployed young people, or 30% or 25%. You can not think that the welfare system continues to grow by reducing the age at which people retire. Plans unemployment insurance or unemployment must be linked to a retraining for person who is unemployed today, which was engaged in some activity, is prepared for other activities, otherwise you will never find a job in what you know do have to learn to have a moonlighting capacity, which has the capacity for various jobs. The more prepared you are, the more likely it is to be a better deal and more easily used. Four decades ago, Alvin Toffler spoke of crises that cause changes in civilization. What is happening in Europe, and the world in general, change is a crisis of civilization. Increasing productivity, being more efficient, to globalize, to stop being competitive for the production of certain goods, start provoked such problems before they have to make fundamental changes to address them. Speaking of numbers, the numbers are not enough to sustain these programs. If the numbers are how much the current value of the retirement of the economically active population employed and unemployed, is unsustainable. Then you have to make those adjustments are and, of course, offer something in return, people work longer and work fewer hours for probably the last 15 years, or 10 years or 20 years. It is linked to work longer and probably fewer days, fewer hours and that also allows a fuller life. Because ultimately what combat poverty is employment, satisfactory employment, further dignifies the person, the job is not only a social responsibility, but also an emotional need.
P. From the eyes of an investor, where are the opportunities now in Europe? In what areas?
R. First it is very important to solve these structural problems. I see difficult that once countries have reached back to underdevelopment development, no substantial signs of it. Yes there are signs that others advance more than them, that advance ... Europe will some tough times, but there will have to find solutions and continue its development. Some activities will be more job-creating activities that are going to be more intense and extensive in its operation. One of them is the information technology are attractive fields, with a future. Health course will be very important as investment, education, entertainment, care of the elderly, tourism ... At the moment things are corrected all these activities are going to be generating employment. Many who go in that direction would be interesting investment for people in Europe and in the world, anywhere will be increasingly demanding, with more investment, more jobs and more economic activity. It is a society, should be clear, the world of services.
I think making corrections Europe remains an area with great potential for development
P. While everyone is worried and pessimistic, you are making investments in Europe is it symptomatic of what was already waiting recovery?
R. No, no. But I believe that investments in technology businesses are very capital intensive, and there is very rapid technological changes and has always been one of our principles remain at the forefront of modernity and technology. He who does not invest, if you are in business, quality service loses, he loses the option of offering more services or lose market share and customer care. Customers will choose companies that have investments that allow them to offer cutting-edge services, customer preference in general are linked to, and that is very important in this sector we make these investments. The nervous system of this civilization is the information technology and we are at the beginning of its development. Although what we have seen in the last 10 years is huge and very important, we are at the beginning. The investment potential and activity in these areas we believe it is very large.
P. Their investments, as recent telephone companies in the Netherlands and Austria, constitute the beginning of a more aggressive strategy for entering the European market?
The euro exchange rate is so high that it takes competitiveness to Europe
R. We are already doing, because the goal of entering into a minority is to support the administration and enterprises, mainly to increase their investments in order to have better infrastructure as late as possible, and encourage investment in these companies.
P. Are you discounting that European leaders will have to reach an agreement very soon?
R. I do not see why it should be a joint decision, each country should make their own decisions. What they need to do are the structural changes and each country must make and correct. When a European country has a very large tax collection and also has a deficit, I think in some cases more than half the domestic product is handled by the government, including the budget deficit, and apart from having a large tax collection, has also because debt has fiscal deficit, for how can correct those excessive fiscal deficit? Supposedly rising income, ie, raise taxes, already high, or lowering expenses which means recession, or sell assets. I think what Europe should do is to sell assets. The State does too many things. What you must do two things: sell assets to lower its debt and deficits, but also invite the private sector and there are these great resources worldwide, by loose monetary policy is in United States and Europe also , and by low interest rates, to make the investment that the state no longer have to keep doing. One of the paradigms of this new civilization is that the State is smaller and civil society becomes larger. The world is behind in this regard. There must be greater promotion of civil society, become more involved in many activities of government, but also to invest rather than everything having to invest the State, for example on motorways. To the hospitals and schools can be funded with private money and with that the State takes pressure off your financial needs. It needs investment so that there is economic activity and employment there needed economic activity.
P. You see resistance to enter that model?
R. No, do not know why it is not. I think it's inertia. Inertia. Because we are also seeing that the medicine that is being proposed is the traditional, is applied to developing countries for many years. Earlier I said that crises in developing countries and the consumers paid in developed savers. In developed countries simply went down the interest rate and consisted everything. But so many excesses that have been basically a problem of excess, that you have to sacrifice now, the saver with negative rates, and consumer recessionary policies.
P. What is your position on the future of the euro?
R. I think it should survive. Fiscal policies should seek to compliance. All I could see is that a euro exchange rate very high, with a dollar that has devalued searched all coins to make some corrections of commercial and current account, is of such a high level that takes away competitiveness Europe, then in many ways causes that Europe will become a kind of closed economy, where only those who are around the euro can trade among themselves, but that costs them export to work elsewhere or be competitive.
P. What is your plan for medium and long term in Europe?
R. We are not going to the circumstantial, which we are investing is a long-term concept. The investments we have made, and our approach is long term. We are not investing because worth 100 and go up to 120 or 200 and sell it. Long term that's why it becomes very important investment, capex call there is not it, to have capital investments leading companies in the markets where they are.
P. What European leaders have lacked imagination, creativity, boldness?
R. Would prove more leadership.
P. What about the Mexican experience of dealing with crises reminds what's happening in Europe?
R. For example in the banking system would be ideal formula a little American preferential capitalization repayable, minimize payment of society, it is more a kind of temporary capitalization, eg sanitation. Another thing: governments are heavily indebted. Does the debt's Who? Private. Well, look changing debt assets, reduce debt, eliminate fiscal deficits, lower them. I have argued that under the external debt crisis of 1982, and the Washington Consensus, we turn outward, more export trade openings, flexible exchange rates to export best devaluations, openness to investment , privatizations sanitized the tax system of our country ... For several years I think it is very important to our utmost to support the development of the domestic economy, the domestic economy. As will be closed foreign markets is very important I think our utmost in our country, without losing our trade and our external activity, to develop much domestic activity. That would allow more activity, more jobs, raise the wage bill significantly, that will be the solution you will find China, we have to see how much does China do to stop exporting what is replaced by domestic consumption. What Europe should do is fix your problems, make the fundamental changes that have to do, beyond its economic weight in the short term decreases or remains. I think making corrections Europe remains an area with great potential for development, which can be at the forefront in many ways, especially if you make corrections and anticipates many of the things you have to do, and what we talked about the retirement age combined with days of work, and that capacity to work other people, because right now the important thing is that the machines work 24 hours and that people are those who work less.
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