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Planes para el adiós al euro
Bancos y empresas se preparan para afrontar la salida de uno o varios países de la moneda única, e incluso para su desaparición
Miguel Ángel García Vega 10 AGO 2012 - 20:47 CET
Plans for the euro goodbye
Banks and businesses are preparing for the departure of one or more countries of the single currency, and even for her disappearance
Miguel Angel Garcia Vega 10 AGO 2012 - 20:47 CET
The euro is at risk of cracking, and Spain is at risk of leaving it. Depending on who you ask, is attributed more or less likely, but no one can dismiss. The big banks and corporations have played mess battle and articulate and formulas to cover their risks disaster. In our country, major listed firms try to answer a question whose very utterance sounds like a threat: if we leave the single currency, how I can protect my assets, my balance, my income?
Faced with such uncertainty, prepare "contingency plans" for responding to the various options. These range from the creation of a new currency only for the countries of northern Europe to the forced departure of any member of the euro area through the complete disappearance of the currency or the creation of a strong and a weak euro. Any of these possibilities has enormous commercial implications, tax, financial and even the reputation of companies.
They are the major operators, financial institutions and export companies protect those most backs. Signatures draft of IAG, owner of British Airways and Iberia, or Barclays have announced two separate contingency plans for what might happen in Spain. Or the bank ING, which recently cut 6,200 million euros in exposure to country.
Among those who have taken similar to the situation in Greece highlight the giant U.S. consumer goods Procter & Gamble, the British Lloyd's, the world leader in insurance, Tui Travel and Thomas Cook, the two largest British tour operators, banks Crédit Agricole and HSBC: Diageo, the British firm more potent drinks, and Dutch brewer Heineken. Swiss banks, so sensitive to their funds, are in a state that one expert calls "high alert" against any occurrence of the Eurozone, and many already have teams dedicated to analyze contingency plans.
IAG, Barclays and ING have contingency plans for Spain
"Quite a few firms have spent months studying Spanish this stage," explains Sara Baliña, International Financial Analyst (AFI). "It is not new or surprising. It is an element of responsibility and good sense to do so given the conditions we are experiencing. Although the risk of leaving the euro Spain is very small, "said the expert, who puts this possibility below 20%.
In line manifests Juan Iranzo, director of the Institute of Economic Studies (IEE): "Spain will not leave the euro, but I understand that companies want to cover that risk." He adds: "If I were one of them would try to keep the money out, sell assets before depreciation and capital have in other currencies."
If the peseta was devalued after a hypothetical exit from the euro, the Government should ensure the supply through imports, at current prices for the products are not too encarecieran. So, intervenirlos as happened during the dictatorship with gasoline.
With this background, the concern extends like a balm. International Financial Analyst (AFI) has made several of these plans at the request of several listed companies. None of them want to be identified publicly to protect his image.
The Ernst & Young has a team of 10 people dedicated largely to this activity. A charge is Velilla Assisi, partner financial instruments. The story of this expert reveals that companies have contingency plans in Spain are preparing for the abandonment of the euro bloc by Portugal, Italy, Greece, Ireland and Spain, and the creation of a strong and a weak euro .
How did it come to this?
Fear of Spain has had a course that can be drawn. First came the multinational companies with subsidiaries in this country which became concerned about their investments in case of leaving the euro, after concerns came to companies with foreign investment funds (especially American) sitting on the boards , and now has moved to the great Spanish listed. The latter is what they want "a generic photo the risks to bring to the board, and depending on the results, or not to take action," reveals Velilla Assisi. "Well, the break can also be an opportunity to buy low-priced competing companies."
Also prepared for the worst Spanish large fortunes, grouped in the main family office in the country, although their particular interpretation of what is a contingency plan. Your way to protect, explains Juan Esquer, GBS Finance partner, has been open accounts in euro countries safer estimate (Luxembourg, Germany and France), in nations that operate near but outside of the euro (United Kingdom or Switzerland) or go to more distant territories (USA). In this situation, it is not surprising that until last May has left 163,000 million euros in the country. Yes, Juan Esquer reveals, "there is increasing compliance problems, that is, justify the origin and destination of those funds."
The Spanish fortunes are also prepared for the worst
Consultants, analysts and companies have a long year designing contingency plans if euro breaks the partially or fully. These jobs have run sotto voce by various boards and give many a huge headache. "Only that require legal changes are a nightmare," admits the legal responsibility of a large Spanish listed.
Although Jean-Claude Juncker, Eurogroup chairman ensures that the output of Greece is "manageable" and that experts like Claudio Ortea, chief investment officer of Lombard Odier, pointing out that "the debate is not whether it will, but when "The Lisbon Treaty provides no mechanism for abandoning the euro. Before the rules need to change. And despite the complexity, analysts agree that a country that leaves the euro need to introduce new legislation to ensure that euro-denominated contracts remain valid. Neither will be easy to discern whether these contracts are backed in the European currency or in euro. In fact, be so interpreted that depend on factors such as legal jurisdiction, the location of the assets or the place of payment.
For example, if Greece would leave the euro, would first have to leave the EU and then re-apply, but admission to the European currency. "The Eurozone was designed as a lobster pot, 'says in a note Simon James, partner at law firm Clifford Chance UK. "To the members is easy to enter, but once inside there is virtually no way out."
However, in this scenario where the unthinkable has become almost real, as some have suggested how it should be that complicated output. British consultancy Capital Economics last month won the Wolfson Prize for Economics with Leaving the euro test: A practical guide (Leaving the euro: a practical guide). It outlines the roadmap of abandonment, really, scary.
The authors propose that countries abandon the single currency introduced a new currency that has parity with the euro 1-1 from the first day of departure and that all wages, prices, loans and deposits are again called in relation to that ratio. In addition, banknotes and coins for small transactions continue being used for no longer than six months. The country would leave the eurozone immediately announce a plan to control inflation monitored by an independent, prohibit wage indexation and issue inflation-linked bonds. And to prevent leakage of funds, following the announcement, the capital markets would be closed. Corralito to Europe. All this practical guide is intended primarily for Greece. And Spain? "Same arguments are valid," confirms Jonatham Loynes, chief European economist at Capital Economics and one of the study authors.
So in the case of hypothetical Spanish yard, the music sounds like this. "The Lisbon Treaty to restrict the free movement of capital for reasons, for example, of public order. Therefore, if you get to this situation, I do not think anything is possible-established exchange controls to prevent the escape of money. This rule may be applied before, even, that Spain will leave the euro. Something I do not think, "Inigo Berricano shells, managing director of the firm Linklaters.
And across the Atlantic? The seismic wave of concern came while the big Wall Street banks. Firms such as JP Morgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Citigroup and Bank of America are covering their backs against a possible euro break renegotiating contracts they have with their European customers, while using unpaid insurance, like credit default swaps (CDS) to reduce their exposure to countries with greater difficulties.
Among racks, there is an effort to avoid that if Spain or Greece leaving the euro these banks do not receive their loans in drachmas or pesetas devalued. For now, their exposure to Ireland, Italy, Portugal, Greece and Spain ranges, according to figures compiled by the Financial Times, among the 5,400 million dollars (4,400 million euros) of Morgan Stanley and 20,000 million from JP Morgan Chase . "These figures limited, showing the great speed that have cleaned up their balance sheets peripheral debt," said the director of a Swiss bank based in Spain. Of course, "nobody wants to be paid in a devalued currency, because it is losing money," delves Soledad Pellon, analyst at IG Markets.
Finally, as noted by Douglas J. Elliott, former vice president of JP Morgan, three scenarios with their probabilities in this whole nightmare. A "gradual resolution of problems (10% chance), things go worse before they get better (65%) and that everything falls apart (25%)." If outright collapse, "Greece may be forced by circumstances to leave euro and probably also other countries. Europe would fall into a deep recession, the U.S. on a smooth growth of nations like China would slow down considerably. The only real winner, if this happens quickly enough, it may be the Republican candidate Mitt Romney, whom a sinking U.S. economy could give the White House. "
Nerves on Wall Street
Sandro Pozzi
Wall Street sees the eventuality of Spain or Italy leaving the euro as remote. Another thing is that some of them have to end up asking for a bailout, as did Portugal and Ireland. But in the case of Greece there are two clear sides. On one side is Citigroup, which already talking about a 90% chance of that happening next year. At the other is Goldman Sachs, which is considered out of place and goes for a rebound in the European currency.
Greek elections in June were a kind of test to refine the contingency plans of the great titans of the financial sector. Special teams were established offices in New York, London and other European capitals to respond in time and not make the mistakes that occurred during the collapse of Lehman Brothers.
Whatever happens with Greece, the fact is that large U.S. banks are taking steps two years to address instability in Europe and limiting their positions. In fact, some of the weakness of the euro is that companies operating in the area would be changing some of its assets in euros to dollars as part of their contingency plans.
A small economy like Greece leaving the euro ends is reason enough to unnerve Wall Street operators and their customers. This is a financial and legal when dealing with currency exchange on existing contracts, as indicated from Allianz. It tries to anticipate what Procter & Gamble, one of the companies that has publicly announced its measures.
JPMorgan Chase, the largest bank by assets in the U.S., is the first major company to talk about contingency plans for any country bonds of the euro, to avoid further problems. Its makers in London explained that "the probability that a member leaves the euro is no longer zero", and therefore believe should establish a protocol to guide. This action is based on an internal survey according to which 30% of customers believe that Greece will leave the euro this year and 5% predicts even that might be the case also for a large economy which comes. "If it happens," say in the state, "we have to be ready to segregate assets, put them in different accounts and identify them in the shortest possible time."
There are usually enough resistance when public speaking contingency plans to the dilemma posed by the breakup of the euro, on what will be done if you suspend trading of a security or a bond, on emergency measures taken or the controls on the flow of capital. And the same is true for banks, applies to fund managers.
The financial sector often face such situations with more lead time, because they are the regulators themselves, as the Federal Reserve, who require them to plan. The companies are lagging. The consultants Ernst & Young and KPMG believe that addressing the issue in a very superficial, and are therefore holding seminars.
In any case, write the obituary of the euro and, as agreed from Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan, is premature. And give a technical explanation to support his idea: nothing is happening in the capital market is enough to reach the point of no return and can be easily solved. It's his way of saying that the European Central Bank has room to settle the question.
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