スペイン国立統計研究所:INE(Instituto Nacional de Estadistica)によると、2012年4月ー6月の経済成長率は,
政府の財政削減·緊縮政策と失業増加による家計消費の減少でGDPのー0'4%で、年間ではー1'3%、経済沈降
Los recortes y la caída del consumo llevan la caída del PIB al 0,4% entre abril y junio
La recesión de la economía española arrancó tres meses antes de lo que se creía
Economía no espera una recuperación hasta comienzos de 2013
Cristina Galindo Madrid 28 AGO 2012 -
The cuts and the fall in consumption are the fall in GDP to 0.4% between April and June
The recession in the Spanish economy started three months earlier than previously thought
Economy not expected to recover until early 2013
Cristina Galindo Madrid 28 AGO 2012 - 09:02 CET
The recession that is trapped in the Spanish economy, the second in less than three years, is worsening. The government's austerity policies and the collapse of household consumption caused the gross domestic product (GDP) fell by 0.4% in the second quarter, a tenth more negative than in the previous quarter, according to the National Statistics Institute (INE). This is the fourth consecutive quarter in red and the government acknowledged yesterday that it expected to fall to correct the first quarters of 2013.
The Spanish economy faces a difficult year. The national accounts data published on Tuesday, explaining the reasons for the fall of the April-June GDP advanced a few weeks ago, show that domestic demand remains increasing the country's wealth. The household consumption falls by 1% quarterly rate, which not only represents a major swipes of the crisis, but also comes after several quarters of sharp declines or stagnation. The high unemployment rate (nearly 25%), difficulties in obtaining credit from a bench waiting for a ransom of 100,000 million euros and distrust in the future of the economy have retracted the Spanish consumption.
Another element that is passing a bill to face cuts growth are carried out by the Government to meet the demands of public deficits in Europe. The government spending fell 0.7% and uses his fifth consecutive quarter negative. Investments fell another 3%. "Domestic demand increasingly contributes less to growth, both private and public, by falling household consumption and fiscal consolidation to which the government is being forced," explains Juan Rubio-Ramírez, Foundation Applied Economic Studies (FEDEA). The expert warned that the second half of the year will be "worse" because "the regions are very delayed in the process of compliance with the deficit target" for this year and will have to tighten their belts even more by December.
Rebound in exports
Overall, domestic demand subtracted 3.9 points to growth in the second quarter, seven points more negative than in the previous quarter. In return, exports made it out of the break in the first quarter, and have again become the only source of growth in GDP between April and June, up 1.6%, thus maintaining their contribution to Quarterly GDP at the same level as the previous quarter (2.6 points). So, in annual terms, GDP contracted by 1.3%, compared with 1% drop announced by INE in its advance to the second quarter. This difference is due to a statistical effect caused by the downward revision of 2011 data released Monday.
The government said yesterday that it is still "early" to know whether the target should be reviewed GDP of the year (now forecast a fall of 1.5%), for his foresight is recent. "We believe there has been a stabilization in the fall of GDP," said Secretary of State for Economic, Fernando Jiménez Latorre, in a press conference. "We are at the peak of fall and there will be a correction from the first quarters of 2013," he said.
The past, in review
With an eye to the past, the data also give much cause for optimism. The economy recorded a small contraction between July and October 2011, according to the INE unveiled after revising downward the growth of 2010 and 2011. "The result of this update and in regard to 2011, the first quarter showed a negative quarterly growth, although small claims was third, not the fourth, as initially estimated," according to the INE.
"The data indicate that the recession began in the third quarter of last year," admitted the Secretary of State for Economic Affairs. Thus, according to the INE revision, GDP and a slight contraction in the third quarter of 2011, when it had previously calculated that had remained frozen at 0.0%. Moreover, in the last quarter of 2011 the GDP fell more than initially calculated: 0.5% instead of 0.3%.
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