スペインの不況は2013年には さらに悪化し、スペインの景気はまだまだ酷くなる
HUW PILL | Economista jefe para Europa de Goldman Sachs
“Para España lo peor está por llegar”
La recesión española se agudizará en 2013 y aún no se percibe un punto de inflexión
Alicia González 21 OCT 2012 - 00:02 CET
`HUW PILL | chief European economist at Goldman Sachs
"For Spain the worst is yet to come"
The Spanish recession will worsen in 2013 and has not yet seen a turning point
Alicia Gonzalez 21 OCT 2012 - 00:02 CET
Huw Pill (Cardiff, 1968) knows the intricacies of the European Central Bank (ECB) which, until just over a year, and was deputy director of the Monetary Policy Analysis. In passing through Frankfurt still has a deep knowledge of the German mentality and his family, who still reside in the city. Your post sounds like that "blood, toil, tears and sweat" of British Prime Minister Winston Churchill: the Spanish economy will get worse before rallying.
Question: What do the think the Moody's decision to maintain the Spanish debt rating?
Answer: I think it is good news for Spain but I do not suppose a turning point. Probably gives a little more time but it is crucial that the extra time is well used. Many of the real economic risks have not changed, some of the financial risks of short term have been mitigated but not gone.
P. So it does not prevent the rescue, whether in the form it is?
"The idea that it with the threat of intervention is a utopia"
R. It is true that the word is a word rescue very pregnant with meaning. Our expectation is that Spain asked the rescue to the European Financial Stability Fund (EFSF) and the European Rescue Mechanism (ESM) and that activated the purchase of debt by the European Central Bank (ECB) and we believe that to happen sooner rather than Then in the next month or the next six weeks at most.
P. There are those who hope that the end is not necessary if the risk premium remains at current levels ...
R. Spain has a primary fiscal deficit (before interest payments on debt) means that the government spends more than it takes in and also many of the upcoming maturities are held by foreign investors, who are not likely to reinvest in Spanish debt. Neither can change investor sentiment from overnight or correct the fiscal deficit overnight. That also would be counterproductive because, as recently said the International Monetary Fund (IMF), there comes a point at which austerity deficit causes an increase, not a reduction. Those two factors will not change for quite some time, which means it's more a question of when, not whether to produce the redemption request.
P. What are your predictions for Spain?
"I think the amount of the bank bailout will prove insufficient"
R. I think not valued all that the country is making all the effort and the suffering that is going on. Our forecasts suggest that the recession will accelerate in the coming quarters. In short, the worst is yet to come and we see no turning this trend around 2013. It is clear that Spain is going through a major adjustment and that is obviously painful and expensive, something that should not be underestimated, but this adjustment was desirable and inevitable. One of the things that impressed me when I come to Spain is that, not only political and financial level but also among citizens, seems to be a consensus that this adjustment was necessary. What to ask European authorities is to be as efficient as possible.
P. Do you allow the conditions of the bailout?
R. I think it is crucial for Spain, and for the euro in general, that the aid is compatible with the market. Follow the roadmap laid so far and close the Spanish capital markets would be a very expensive strategy. Once you close a country's access to markets is very difficult to return to reopen and Spain is too big and with a significant amount of debt and to operate in an environment without market access. Spain, Italy, France and Germany are the countries through which it passes the future of the euro and the important thing is that the precautionary credit line that is designed to Spain, the intervention aims to promote the stabilization of the market, not to replace . Our base, and I think the European authorities, is that the use of the financial resources of the EFSF and the ESM by the Spanish government will be relatively limited. And that's very important, because everything has pros and cons, this crisis has taught us that there is no free lunch. For example, if the ECB purchases in large quantities and short term, may cause some chaos among the holders of long-term debt and shorten the maturity profile of Spanish debt. Which raises the question of when the ECB will stop buying bonds. But will have to intervene. The idea, perfect from the standpoint of the ECB, that the mere threat of intervention stabilizes the market, eventually leads to a rebound in confidence and credit is simply a utopia.
P. What about all warranties offered by European authorities in return?
"I do not think the ECB can or should guarantee a specific differential"
R. I do not think the ECB can or should provide, explicitly or implicitly, a guarantee of a certain debt spreads because that would invite speculation and the ECB could embark on a repeat of what we saw 20 years ago in Europe in relation to the exchange rates. I think we should not go there because it would be relatively easy to try to push the boundaries of the entity with massive purchases of debt in a short period of time. And honestly, I do not think that neither the German government nor its citizens to be prepared for that.
P. Still pending disbursement of the bank bailout.
R. A liquidity Spain to help solve some of their problems. But the issue is deeper. In our opinion, has drawn a red line running from the Pyrenees to the Alps. Europe, as a whole, is self-sufficient financially, only needs to allocate resources where and when needed. Now, as Mario Draghi reminded [ECB president], the private capital markets are highly segmented. If the ECB injected liquidity south of the red line, just invested funds sooner rather than later on in German bunds, French, German corporate debt ... That takes you to have very favorable financing conditions in Germany, while in countries harden like Italy or Spain. So initiatives like bank recapitalization programs or debt purchases by the ECB are an attempt to restore confidence in the health of the financial system. Without them, the situation would be much worse. But from our point of view, bond purchases only serve to buy time.
P. What does that mean?
R. In the medium term, it is surely necessary to clean the balance sheets of Spanish banks and probably significantly reduce the size of the Spanish financial system, with deeper capital markets to reduce excessive dependence on bank. But if you try to do it very quickly hone and deflationary pressures that threaten the Spanish economy. Are sufficient measures adopted in the process of recapitalization? In my opinion and not the amount offered for that process also think it proves inadequate. So I do not think we're witnessing the end of the match.
