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欧州中央銀行総裁のマリオ=どら着(Mario Draghi)氏 のユーロ危機回避策は?
Todo el poder para Draghi
El presidente del BCE ha logrado teledirigir la política europea de las próximas semanas
Claudi Pérez Bruselas2 AGO 2012 - 18:22 CET
All power to Draghi
ECB President has remote control the European policy in the coming weeks
Claudi Perez Brussels 2 AGO 2012 - 18:22 CET
ECB President has remote control the European policy in the coming weeks
Claudi Perez Brussels 2 AGO 2012 - 18:22 CET
With you Mario Draghi, the most powerful man in Europe, in the stormy waters of the markets and in the Sargasso Sea continental policy. A few days ago in London, slightly arched an eyebrow and markets ran like rabbits. Today, in Frankfurt, Draghi has been used to operate by remote control the expectations each and every one of the important movements of European policy in the coming weeks.
One: Spain is bound to complete all the reforms imposed by Europe and humiliating to ask for a second rescue, a request should come as early as tomorrow if the president Mariano Rajoy wants to avoid a punishment superlative in the markets, while ensuring that it will not to have excessive additional conditions. Two: Italy will benefit from Spanish rescue indirectly, but very, very likely also be forced to ask about the political situation is clarified. Three: the European partners must sign off on those two jackets (not total interventions such as Greece, Portugal and Ireland, but partial surrenders due to the large size of these two economies) without additional conditions too onerous in political terms, with a social climate in Spain is getting worse and the risk of a future Executive antieuro in Italy. And four, if all that happens, Germany and the Bundesbank should be set ultraortodoxias and leave the ECB with hands-free (that is, Draghi) to end the unbearable tension in the markets as and when he wants. In short, all the power to Draghi, a sort of new continental policy Richelieu.
The play has a Machiavellian point. ECB President shakes hands with the bogey of an intervention and used it to investors for their purposes, resulting first in a fit of panic in the markets (which demonstrates the power of his words, infinitely greater than that of 100 plans set) and then the governments, who forces you to do everything you want with vague promises, with the realization that only he can control the situation. With the other hand fights the hawks of the council of government and Berlin, showing that for the time not spent a single euro and it will only be met if the United hose down all its conditions.
The power of the ECB is already far beyond monetary policy. It is politics itself, pure and simple
The power of the ECB is already far beyond monetary policy. It is politics itself, pure and simple. The play has only one problem: still based on the chimeric fallacy that further cutting in the South to trust again, to the Spanish economy helenizándose at full speed, with Italy and Spain with either foot and a half of the markets , with the austerity wreaking havoc on the economy so-called real. And still playing with the fire of the markets, which eventually may become hot (if it is being already) and cause an accident. Speaking of accidents, there are hardly any references to Greece in recent weeks.
Rajoy presented tomorrow biennial budget in 2013 and 2014 which had been committed, and should be much more specific (and therefore have many more problems at home) than I thought. As convening a Eurogroup, seek help from temporary bailout fund (EFSF, for its acronym in English). If you meet all the reforms and measures that forced him the first of the rescues (those 100,000 million for banks that already seem from another era), the only question is whether there is already that second lifeguard, which involves an intervention EFSF in the primary market (in Treasury auctions) or second-hand market, will include additional conditions. Spain is likely to be forced to apply more than the odd cut on pensions or unemployment insurance, according to sources. The Executive would do well to put all its diplomatic machinery in place to prevent such further measures erode the ailing Spanish economy, which is moving firmly towards a deep and lasting recession: that is all that can justify some delay in the submission of a second lifeline. In all other respects, Rajoy should rush to the last meeting the wishes of the almighty Draghi: resist only serve for more punishment in the markets, to have even less bargaining power.
Except try to mitigate the effects of the cuts, Rajoy should hasten to comply with everything the Almighty wants Draghi
Note: The paradox is that a government that is backed by an absolute majority in Parliament is in the hands of the president of a central bank, which is not democratically elected. European policy strives to give more and more power to a supposedly independent institution, and when she uses the Governments now called to account by itself, and end up accusing him of "clandestine central bank." But that's another story.
One: Spain is bound to complete all the reforms imposed by Europe and humiliating to ask for a second rescue, a request should come as early as tomorrow if the president Mariano Rajoy wants to avoid a punishment superlative in the markets, while ensuring that it will not to have excessive additional conditions. Two: Italy will benefit from Spanish rescue indirectly, but very, very likely also be forced to ask about the political situation is clarified. Three: the European partners must sign off on those two jackets (not total interventions such as Greece, Portugal and Ireland, but partial surrenders due to the large size of these two economies) without additional conditions too onerous in political terms, with a social climate in Spain is getting worse and the risk of a future Executive antieuro in Italy. And four, if all that happens, Germany and the Bundesbank should be set ultraortodoxias and leave the ECB with hands-free (that is, Draghi) to end the unbearable tension in the markets as and when he wants. In short, all the power to Draghi, a sort of new continental policy Richelieu.
The play has a Machiavellian point. ECB President shakes hands with the bogey of an intervention and used it to investors for their purposes, resulting first in a fit of panic in the markets (which demonstrates the power of his words, infinitely greater than that of 100 plans set) and then the governments, who forces you to do everything you want with vague promises, with the realization that only he can control the situation. With the other hand fights the hawks of the council of government and Berlin, showing that for the time not spent a single euro and it will only be met if the United hose down all its conditions.
The power of the ECB is already far beyond monetary policy. It is politics itself, pure and simple
The power of the ECB is already far beyond monetary policy. It is politics itself, pure and simple. The play has only one problem: still based on the chimeric fallacy that further cutting in the South to trust again, to the Spanish economy helenizándose at full speed, with Italy and Spain with either foot and a half of the markets , with the austerity wreaking havoc on the economy so-called real. And still playing with the fire of the markets, which eventually may become hot (if it is being already) and cause an accident. Speaking of accidents, there are hardly any references to Greece in recent weeks.
Rajoy presented tomorrow biennial budget in 2013 and 2014 which had been committed, and should be much more specific (and therefore have many more problems at home) than I thought. As convening a Eurogroup, seek help from temporary bailout fund (EFSF, for its acronym in English). If you meet all the reforms and measures that forced him the first of the rescues (those 100,000 million for banks that already seem from another era), the only question is whether there is already that second lifeguard, which involves an intervention EFSF in the primary market (in Treasury auctions) or second-hand market, will include additional conditions. Spain is likely to be forced to apply more than the odd cut on pensions or unemployment insurance, according to sources. The Executive would do well to put all its diplomatic machinery in place to prevent such further measures erode the ailing Spanish economy, which is moving firmly towards a deep and lasting recession: that is all that can justify some delay in the submission of a second lifeline. In all other respects, Rajoy should rush to the last meeting the wishes of the almighty Draghi: resist only serve for more punishment in the markets, to have even less bargaining power.
Except try to mitigate the effects of the cuts, Rajoy should hasten to comply with everything the Almighty wants Draghi
Note: The paradox is that a government that is backed by an absolute majority in Parliament is in the hands of the president of a central bank, which is not democratically elected. European policy strives to give more and more power to a supposedly independent institution, and when she uses the Governments now called to account by itself, and end up accusing him of "clandestine central bank." But that's another story.
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