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ドイツは、欧州中央銀行がスペインやイタリアの国債を購入するのに、冷水をぶっ掛ける
Alemania enfría las expectativas sobre la compra de deuda del BCE
El Bundesbank cree que se “sobreestima” la capacidad de Fráncfort contra la crisis
Los expertos creen que Draghi no reactivará la adquisición de bonos
Luis Doncel / Juan Gómez Bruselas / Berlín1 AGO 2012 - 12:06 CET
Germany cools expectations on ECB debt buying
The Bundesbank believes that "overstates" the ability to Frankfurt against the crisis
Experts believe that Draghi not reactivate the acquisition of bonds
Doncel Luis / Juan Gomez Brussels / Berlin 1 AGO 2012 - 12:06 CET
The Bundesbank believes that "overstates" the ability to Frankfurt against the crisis
Experts believe that Draghi not reactivate the acquisition of bonds
Doncel Luis / Juan Gomez Brussels / Berlin 1 AGO 2012 - 12:06 CET
Whatever you do, it is almost impossible to achieve Mario Draghi on Thursday to leave everyone happy. The President of the European Central Bank (ECB), one of the most difficult days of the nine months he has been in charge of European monetary policy is forced to walk the fine line that takes you to avoid the collapse of markets anxious to hear good news but not thrown too powerful arm to Germany.
The monthly meeting of the ECB Governing Council will decide the action to give substance to the now famous phrase uttered Draghi last week. "I will do everything necessary to support the euro. And believe me, it will be enough, "said a week ago in London. But experts consulted considered unlikely that the Eurobanco will immediately reactivate the program to buy debt-standstill since last March. Germany pressured to not do it. The German central bank president (Bundesbank) Jens Weidman, expressed his opposition Wednesday.
Experts do not trust the ECB to step forward to give short-term bank tab to rescue mechanism, a move that would give him unlimited power to buy bonds of countries requesting this form of covert rescue. Germany again. "Chancellor [Angela Merkel] Finance Minister [Wolfgang Schauble] and I agree that the license can not be our way," said Deputy Foreign Minister and Economy Minister Philipp Rsler.
Germany these days has an eye on their financial capital. Frankfurt is the tower of the ECB and only a couple of miles north stands the headquarters of the German central bank (Bundesbank). Its chairman, Jens Weidmann, is one of the leading opponents to the ECB to repurchase debt in secondary markets, as it believes that it is an indirect form of financing to countries in crisis. In an interview on Wednesday suspended the website of the Bundesbank, its chief cooled expectations of those who expect a solution to the problems of Spain and to a lesser extent Italy. Weidmann warning of the risk that politicians "overestimate" the chances of the ECB.
more informationBerlin cools expectations on the ECB and rejects strengthen the bottom"The ECB will endeavor to support the euro. And believe me, that's enough "What rescues Spain may ask?
The issuing bank's mandate is to maintain price stability, remember Weidmann, who, as German central banker, sits on the ECB's Governing Council. He warns that the Bundesbank "is not just one among the 17 central banks" that make up the monetary union, but "the largest and most important." Although the interview took place several weeks ago, before the London speech of Draghi and that leaders of both weight and Angela Merkel, François Hollande and Timothy Geithner U.S. would support the Italian initiative to save the euro, the content reveals differences between the two central bankers. After the euphoria of the market by the words of Draghi last week, investors have discounted these days that the meeting of the ECB can not give the expected results. The Spanish risk premium fell on Wednesday at 536 basis points.
Germany continues the discussion with palpable tension. Leaders of the parties of the center-right coalition headed Angela Merkel, curtly reject aid which, believe, can help relax the reformist zeal of governments such as Spain. Berlin signals Draghi warm support. "The purchase of bonds in secondary markets is not inconsistent with the mandate of the ECB," said the German Finance Ministry.
Analysts at Goldman Sachs in a report published today point to the European rescue fund (called European Financial Stability Facility or EFSF) as the main instrument that may contain tensions. But for this fund is released to buy securities is imperative that the recipient country's request. And since it is unlikely that Spain is going to make that request these days, analysts predict a bank's negative market reaction. President of the Eurogroup, Luxembourg's Jean-Claude Juncker, on Sunday defended a joint venture between the ECB and the EFSF. Goldman's report considers that this possibility could calm concerns, "especially if there is a request from Spain to the rescue fund in the coming months."
But if Draghi does not display all the artillery on Thursday, what can you do to prevent the Spanish risk premium is triggered and then almost inevitable rescue the fourth largest economy in the eurozone? Analysts like Joaquin Maudos considers it essential that the debt purchase program is imminent. "An announcement credible medium-term intervention may have effects on the markets right now," said the professor at the University of Valencia.
One decision that seems most likely to relax the guarantees that the ECB calls on banks so that they come to your window for fresh money. Analysts see more distant a new cut in interest rates since July, which are at the minimum level of 0.75% - once proven its limited effectiveness in reducing tensions.
Time is running out for Spain, more and more difficult to find investors in Treasury auctions. Thursday's meeting between Italian Prime Minister, Mario Monti, President Mariano Rajoy and can be a good occasion to announce a joint action. "Germany will only allow the purchase of debt when you see that the collapse is imminent. But if the ECB does not give a clear signal now, the market may sink the next day, "summarizes Santiago Carbó, a professor at the British Bangor Business School.
The monthly meeting of the ECB Governing Council will decide the action to give substance to the now famous phrase uttered Draghi last week. "I will do everything necessary to support the euro. And believe me, it will be enough, "said a week ago in London. But experts consulted considered unlikely that the Eurobanco will immediately reactivate the program to buy debt-standstill since last March. Germany pressured to not do it. The German central bank president (Bundesbank) Jens Weidman, expressed his opposition Wednesday.
Experts do not trust the ECB to step forward to give short-term bank tab to rescue mechanism, a move that would give him unlimited power to buy bonds of countries requesting this form of covert rescue. Germany again. "Chancellor [Angela Merkel] Finance Minister [Wolfgang Schauble] and I agree that the license can not be our way," said Deputy Foreign Minister and Economy Minister Philipp Rsler.
Germany these days has an eye on their financial capital. Frankfurt is the tower of the ECB and only a couple of miles north stands the headquarters of the German central bank (Bundesbank). Its chairman, Jens Weidmann, is one of the leading opponents to the ECB to repurchase debt in secondary markets, as it believes that it is an indirect form of financing to countries in crisis. In an interview on Wednesday suspended the website of the Bundesbank, its chief cooled expectations of those who expect a solution to the problems of Spain and to a lesser extent Italy. Weidmann warning of the risk that politicians "overestimate" the chances of the ECB.
more informationBerlin cools expectations on the ECB and rejects strengthen the bottom"The ECB will endeavor to support the euro. And believe me, that's enough "What rescues Spain may ask?
The issuing bank's mandate is to maintain price stability, remember Weidmann, who, as German central banker, sits on the ECB's Governing Council. He warns that the Bundesbank "is not just one among the 17 central banks" that make up the monetary union, but "the largest and most important." Although the interview took place several weeks ago, before the London speech of Draghi and that leaders of both weight and Angela Merkel, François Hollande and Timothy Geithner U.S. would support the Italian initiative to save the euro, the content reveals differences between the two central bankers. After the euphoria of the market by the words of Draghi last week, investors have discounted these days that the meeting of the ECB can not give the expected results. The Spanish risk premium fell on Wednesday at 536 basis points.
Germany continues the discussion with palpable tension. Leaders of the parties of the center-right coalition headed Angela Merkel, curtly reject aid which, believe, can help relax the reformist zeal of governments such as Spain. Berlin signals Draghi warm support. "The purchase of bonds in secondary markets is not inconsistent with the mandate of the ECB," said the German Finance Ministry.
Analysts at Goldman Sachs in a report published today point to the European rescue fund (called European Financial Stability Facility or EFSF) as the main instrument that may contain tensions. But for this fund is released to buy securities is imperative that the recipient country's request. And since it is unlikely that Spain is going to make that request these days, analysts predict a bank's negative market reaction. President of the Eurogroup, Luxembourg's Jean-Claude Juncker, on Sunday defended a joint venture between the ECB and the EFSF. Goldman's report considers that this possibility could calm concerns, "especially if there is a request from Spain to the rescue fund in the coming months."
But if Draghi does not display all the artillery on Thursday, what can you do to prevent the Spanish risk premium is triggered and then almost inevitable rescue the fourth largest economy in the eurozone? Analysts like Joaquin Maudos considers it essential that the debt purchase program is imminent. "An announcement credible medium-term intervention may have effects on the markets right now," said the professor at the University of Valencia.
One decision that seems most likely to relax the guarantees that the ECB calls on banks so that they come to your window for fresh money. Analysts see more distant a new cut in interest rates since July, which are at the minimum level of 0.75% - once proven its limited effectiveness in reducing tensions.
Time is running out for Spain, more and more difficult to find investors in Treasury auctions. Thursday's meeting between Italian Prime Minister, Mario Monti, President Mariano Rajoy and can be a good occasion to announce a joint action. "Germany will only allow the purchase of debt when you see that the collapse is imminent. But if the ECB does not give a clear signal now, the market may sink the next day, "summarizes Santiago Carbó, a professor at the British Bangor Business School.
ドイツは、ECBの債券購入に期待を冷却する ブンデスバンクは、危機に対してそれが"誇張"フランクフルトへの能力を信じる 専門家は、ドラギは、社債の取得を再度アクティブにしないと信じている 2012 AGO Doncelルイス/フアン·ゴメスブリュッセル/ベルリン1 - 12:06 CET
何をするにしても、それは、誰もが幸せに残すために、木曜日にマリオドラギを達成することはほとんど不可能です。欧州中央銀行（ECB）、彼は欧州の金融政策を担当してきた9ヶ月の最も困難な日のいずれかの社長は、あなたが心配して市場の崩壊を避けるためにかかる微妙な境界線を歩くことを余儀なくされてい良いニュースを聞くが、ドイツにも強力な腕をスローしないように。
ECB理事会の月例会は先週ドラギを口に今有名なフレーズに実質を付与するためのアクションを決定します。 "私は、ユーロをサポートするために必要なすべてを行います。と私を信じて、それが十分になるだろう "と、ロンドンで一週間前に言った。しかし、専門家Eurobancoはすぐに昨年3月以来、負債停止を買うためにプログラムを再アクティブ化する可能性は低いと考え相談した。ドイツはそれをしないように圧力をかけた。ドイツの中央銀行社長（ブンデスバンク）イェンス·ワイドマンは、水曜日彼の反対を表明した。
専門家は、ECBはメカニズムを救うために短期の銀行タブを与えるために前進するために彼の秘密の救済は、このフォームを要求する国の債券を購入する無限の力を与えるであろう動きを信用していない。再びドイツ。 "首相[メルケル]財務大臣[ヴォルフガング·ショイブレ]と私はライセンスが我々の方法ではないことに同意、"外務大臣及び経済産業大臣フィリップRslerは述べています。
ドイツ、これらの日は、金融資本に目を持っています。フランクフルトは、ECBの塔であり、唯一のマイル北のカップルはドイツの中央銀行（ブンデスバンク）の本部が立っています。それは危機の国々に資金の間接的な形であると考えているとして会長、イェンスWeidmannは、二次市場での債務を買い戻すためにECBの主要な反対派の一つです。水曜日のインタビューで、ブンデスバンクのウェブサイトは、スペインの問題およびより少ない程度で、イタリアへの解決策を期待する人々のその最高の冷却の期待を停止した。政治家がECBの可能性を "過大評価"というリスクのWeidmann警告。
詳細については、ベルリンでは、ECBに期待を冷却し、底部を強化する拒否"ECBは、ユーロをサポートするために努めてまいります。と "十分だと、私を信じて何がスペインが求めることができる救助？
発行銀行の任務は、ドイツの中央銀行として、ECBの理事会に座ってWeidmannを覚えて、物価の安定を維持することです。彼は、連銀は通貨統合を構成している "わずか17中央銀行のうちの1つではありません"と警告しているが、 "最大かつ最も重要な。"インタビューはドラギのロンドンのスピーチの前に、その、数週間前に開催されましたが、重量とアンゲラ·メルケル首相、フランソワ·オランドとティモシー·ガイトナー米両国の首脳はユーロを救うためにイタリアのイニシアティブを支持するだろう、内容が明らかに2中央銀行の間に違いがあります。ドラギ先週の言葉による市場の陶酔した後、投資家がECBの会合が期待される結果を与えることはできませんこれらの日に割り引いています。スペインのリスク·プレミアムは536ベーシスポイントで水曜日に下落した。
ドイツは明白な緊張との議論を続けています。アンゲラ·メルケル首相を務めた中道右派連合の政党の指導者たちは、ぶっきらぼうに、信じて、スペインなどの政府の改革の熱意をリラックスすることができます援助を拒否します。ベルリンでは、ドラギ温かいご支援を通知します。 "流通市場における社債の購入はECBの任務と矛盾するものではありません、"ドイツ財務省は述べています。
緊張を含めることができます主な楽器として、欧州救済基金（欧州金融安定ファシリティまたはEFSFと呼ばれる）をポイントして本日発表されたレポート内のゴールドマンサックスのアナリスト。しかし、このファンドは有価証券を購入するリリースされたためと、その被援助国の要請が不可欠です。そして、それはスペインは、これらの日、その要求をしようとしていることはほとんどありませんので、アナリストは、銀行の負の市場の反応を予測します。ユーログループの社長、ルクセンブルクのジャン=クロード·ユンカーは、日曜日にECBとEFSFの合弁会社を擁護した。ゴールドマン·サックスのレポートには、この可能性は、懸念を静めることができると考えている "今後数ヶ月の間にスペインからの救済基金への要求がある場合は特に。"
しかし、ドラギは木曜日にすべての大砲が表示されない場合は、スペインのリスク·プレミアムを防ぐために何をすることができユーロ圏では4位の経済大国をトリガして、ほぼ避けられない救助されますか？ホアキンMaudosのようなアナリストは、負債の購入プログラムが差し迫っていることが不可欠と考えています。 "発表信頼できる中期的な介入は今の市場に影響を与えることが、"バレンシア大学の教授は述べています。
彼らは新鮮なお金のためにあなたの窓に来るようにECBが銀行に求めることを保証し、リラックスする可能性が最も高いと思わOne決定。緊張を減らすのに一度証明され、その限られた有効性 - アナリストは0.75％の最低レベルである7月以降の金利でより遠く新しいカットを参照してください。
時間は、財務省のオークションで投資家を見つけるのがより困難、スペインのために不足しています。イタリア首相、マリオ·モンティ、代表取締役社長マリアーノRajoyとの間に木曜日の会議は、共同行動を発表する良い機会になることができます。あなたは崩壊が差し迫っていることを確認すると、 "ドイツは、債務の購入が可能になります。 ECBは現在明確なシグナルを与えるものではありませんしかし、もし市場が次の日に沈むかもしれない "サンティアゴ炭、イギリスのバンゴールのビジネススクールの教授はまとめています。
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