スペイン政府は、スペインの銀行を健全化するために悪銀行(不良債権の集合体;銀行の不良債権を割り引いて購入し,それを販売して収益を目指す、できるだけ損失を防ぐ、税金を回収する?)を創設
El banco malo entra en escena
Una gestora asumirá los activos tóxicos de la banca para sanear el sistema financiero
Amanda Mars Madrid 17 AGO 2012 - 21:41 CET
The bad bank comes in.
A manager will take the toxic assets of the banks to clean up the financial system
Amanda Mars Madrid 17 AGO 2012 - 21:41 CET
Alan Ahearne continues to repeat on the other side of the phone: "You have to be realistic." It is the only advice that dares to give Spain the Bruegel Institute economist and advisor to the former Minister of Finance Brian Lenihan Irish, who spearheaded the creation of the Irish bad bank in December 2009 and Teuteló financial restructuring of the country. The call NAMA (acronym for the agency that purchased the assets of Irish banks damaged) swallowed some 74,000 million euros in loans at an average discount of 58%, but still fell short because prices fell more than 60 % from the highs of 2007.
Spain has yielded to Brussels and has broken the taboo-another-in this episode of the crisis: create an asset management company (colloquially, a bad bank) that groups assets of banks with public aid to troubled financial jargon calls or toxic, ie collection difficult or risky, almost all related to the bursting of the housing bubble. "It's great to separate the healthy from damaged credit, but the discount that applies to property loans must be realistic," recalls Ahearne. "If prices have fallen as a percentage, however high, must be reflected, and if there are large losses, banks must recapitalize."
The problem in Spain is that nobody knows what is worthless. The Government has had to ask its eurozone partners a ransom of up to 100,000 million for the financial sector, which is plagued field for entities receiving public assistance: all will have to transfer toxic assets to the bad bank.
At what price? That is a key issue. The bank balance sheets have not yet incorporated the depreciation of the assets in the market: we speak of a discount of up to 60% of the original value, and have covered entities with supplies about 35% on average. Move current market values to the accounts of entities would create a significant hole in the capital and would embarrass many of them, so the memorandum of understanding (MOU initials) that Europe has signed with Spain hopes the transfer of assets to something as ethereal and gas as the fair market price in the long term. The methodology to calculate it based on the stress tests for banks and savings that will end in September. "That approximately 25% difference between recognized by banks and the market price is what many entities will need public support, and those the taxpayer has to bear the bad if the bank fails to recover the sales market ", explains one of the firms that have audited the sector.
The philosophy of a bad bank is: damaged credit takes to clean up the financial sector and is sold in the market in order to recover public money. Since then not much more defined. For starters, it is decided what legal form will this instrument, and who will manage it, and what kind of assets included. Although credit-linked mass brick (problem loans and real estate) is the most relevant, Brussels also argues that incorporate managing loans, although not linked to promoters, resulting from risk, as those granted to companies in other sectors or mortgage loans to individuals.
Only developer risk, banks had accumulated at the end of 2011 about 85,000 million in homes, solar and awarded promotions, and 100,000 million in questionable or default risk. With the bad bank, the State becomes a real estate giant.
The MOU calls on Spain to have a legal framework for this instrument in late August, and the government will approve the bases expected in the Cabinet next Friday. U.S. consultancy Alvarez & Marsal is designing the instrument. The transfer of assets will be mandatory for the four entities that are now in the hands of the state through the bank bailout fund (FROB), Bankia, Catalunya Banc, NCG Banco and Banco de Valencia, and for requiring rescue aid. The aim is to launch in December.
The price will influence in attracting private investors to the bad bank. So far, many funds specializing in impaired assets have sniffed the loan portfolio of Spanish banks, but no significant transactions have been closed, as these investors demanded very compelling discounts. "They asked for discounts of 60% to the banks and were not willing to take because they would go into a tailspin," said an industry source. Now, if the bad bank does incorporate those assets at a discount, also relevant, with public support, could be less difficult to see private money ready to go into that management company.
But in the market for granted that the bad bank will be born as a public entity and, therefore, their debt would have that same consideration. "The financing of asset management vehicles can be done in different ways, but issuing debt with some form of government guarantee has been a model used in other jurisdictions," said Francisco Uria, partner in charge of KPMG's financial sector. "If the vehicle is mainly involved or controlled by the FROB, the debt issue is likely to be considered as public debt."
KPMG, along with PwC, Deloitte and Ernst & Young, is one of the audit which has been examining the guts of Spanish banks to submit to the Government a report on the status of claims as a basis for another endurance test. The report must calculate the losses they incur a bank under adverse economic scenario and therefore recapitalization needs you have. That is when you know the status of each entity and if you need aid. So far, reports of Oliver Wyman and Roland Berger in early summer, based on information collected by the Bank of Spain, throwing a total loss of 62,000 and 52,000 million, respectively. In a base scenario, if it complies with the already bad economic forecasting, capital requirements would be 16,000 to 25,000 million, according to Oliver Wyman, and 25,600 million, according to Roland Berger.
This cluster of tests and examinations by independent entities responding to attempt to calm the huge distrust and Europe markets feel about the Spanish financial industry, believing that their bodies have not yet recognized in its entire depreciation balances of appropriations linked to the brick.
Oliver Wyman also believed that Spanish banks hide part of credit linked to the brick. "The cases that are known suggest that significant portions of loans for real estate development and construction have been misclassified as corporate credit trends," noted the report of the consultant.
The industry is beginning to be reclassified as doubtful many credits. The latest data from delinquency, for June-just the month that the government asked the bank bailout, beat the record of all the statistical series of the Bank of Spain, which starts in 1962. The arrears grew from 8.9% to 9.4% of total loans in one month, to 8.387 million euros emerge hardly recover.
Nor is it at all clear that resources reach regain public entities need to discount the value of their assets lost damaged. The State will succeed if the bad bank sells assets to at least the same price for which he bought. Therefore, as in the Irish case, we speak of a period of time to repay those loans and real estate for about 10 years, but no one in the brick industry dares to predict when prices will recover.
Santiago Carbo, Professor of Economics and Finance, Bangor Business School and director of Financial Studies Foundation of Savings Banks (Func), go hard for the bad bank assets liquidated achieves recovering taxpayer money. "It has been slow to launch this type of management and in this period the value of loans and real estate has deteriorated a lot", so that sales may incur losses.
And the market is thorny. Stocks of new construction homes are stuck in the 818 000 units, with data from September 2011, according to the research service of Caixa Catalunya. The latest data provided by the Government, July 2011, stood at 687,523 outstanding property find a buyer. With economic forecasts that extend to 2013 recession and meager growth in 2014, no provision for buying spree without a drastic fall in prices.
About 25% of all the portfolio of homes for sale relates to banking, according to estimates by José García Montalvo, Professor of Economics at the University Pompeu Fabra, an expert in real estate. "Now the market is starting to move quickly due to the increase in provisions [that the government entities demanded in February decree to make it cover the risk of default on loans linked to brick]," he says, but warns that in Ireland were wrong because they were very optimistic about prices: "They thought they would soon go back up and instead, fell much more." Even so, the manager managed to close the year with a net profit 247 million.
Spanish banks without state aid also have to deliver asset management vehicles pursuant to decree that the government approved in May, but with different obligations. The price set by the bank to sell bad assets will also have effects on healthy banks call, one that does not need support. "The volume of transactions conducted entities required to transfer its assets to asset management vehicle is very important, so there is a risk that the conditions of these operations contaminate future asset valuations which in any case should proceed in Individual "said Uriah.
The market is on edge, waiting for what the bad bank.
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