中央銀行の魔法は尽き破てた。世界経済、特にユーロ圏では、行き詰まりを打破するために、新しい刺激を必要としている。
¡Que alguien empuje!
La magia de los bancos centrales se agota. La economía mundial, especialmente la de la eurozona, necesita nuevos impulsos para salir del atolladero
EDITORIAL: El área euro es una isla
La teoría del exceso de deuda pierde un asalto
Amanda Mars Washington 21 ABR 2013 - 00:00 CET
Somebody push!
The central bank magic runs out. The world economy, especially in the eurozone, needs new impulses to break the impasse
EDITORIAL: The euro area is an island
The debt overhang theory loses an assault
Mars Amanda Washington 21 ABR 2013 - 00:00 CET
They write books in a few years telling how it came out. They will tell who was right and who was wrong, what worked and what failed. Depth analysis will be published on paper in this crisis of the major central banks and monetary expansion that have taken place-the largest in history, in order to avoid a depression: tons of money injected into the economy based purchasing bond, cheap loans and interest rates for the soil to revive credit, consumption, activity. The stimulus level is unprecedented, but also risks, and staggered wheel machine. What is the limit for central banks? When to put on the brakes? What will happen when this policy disappears?
A Chirstine Lagarde, head of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) this week asked their views on these policies extraordinary. "I have not the answer," he replied. "I'm not sure that central bankers who met here a day have the answer. I think some time exploring uncharted waters and, given his sense of proportion, sure would like to return to familiar territory. "
To the question answer books of the future, because today no one knows, or Washington, or Brussels or Tokyo. As stated Lagarde, central banks walk through unfamiliar terrain, and no response. Doubts have grabbed much of the IMF spring appointment, a week of meetings in the heart of the U.S. capital. All you have to do with money is very close in this town: outside the headquarters is located Fund World Bank; few blocks down, the Federal Reserve, and a couple of streets over, the legendary K street, where are the main lobbies of the country. These barruntan also where is the key to the magic endure when central banks.
This is the diagnosis that has issued the Fund: the global economy recovers at three speeds, with emerging countries to head the United States and some Nordic countries, after, and thirdly, the ailing eurozone. Southern Europe decreases caught by cuts and budgetary imbalances, with the news that dangerous crisis expands back to the heart of Europe: Germany, France and the Netherlands are the countries that have reduced their economic forecasts by the IMF . Japan in its battle against deflation particularly, is considered a special case, with growth expectations, but with a monumental debt. And China will accelerate its growth this year, although the latter figure has not met expectations.
Doubts about the way forward grabbing IMF summit
In this scenario, the IMF believes that the major economies should continue to reduce their deficits, but countries with possibilities, like the U.S. or the UK, as explicitly cited the Fund's chief economist, Olivier Blanchard, have room for maneuver enough to soften the rate settings and ballasting spending the least possible global locomotive activity.
"We also emerging powers and, in Europe, Germany is in a position to stimulate its economy more, but the problem is not austerity itself or pursue a deficit target, but carry out appropriate austerity policies," says Jacob Kirkegaard, Peterson Institute investigator. Kirkegaard responds in his office in Washington, with papers scattered on a wide table between meetings, in this frenetic week for lobbies and think tanks in the city. In Europe, he says, "the problem is that although the European Central Bank can further lower interest rates, it is unclear who would benefit."
Despite being the most conservative of the major central banks, the ECB largely limited by their different mandate over others, has also done his little adventure. Last July the price of money left at 0.75%, the lowest level in the history of the euro. But neither that, nor the billionaires hosed cheap credit and other extraordinary measures have had the desired effect: credit is not flowing. Analysts now shuffled the idea that lowering it another quarter point, but the cuts have less effects points increases. This is the same dynamic that a rope, according to Keynes used simile: you can pull it to slow bubbles, but serves to push. But for now, the plan of the ECB buying bonds for troubled countries has calmed markets without applying.
The dangers lie in the risks they take their own central banks to buy debt, which can generate bubbles in emerging economies, where investors seeking high returns by low interest on money in the developed countries and the effect on markets the withdrawal of the stimulus, which would necessarily be very gradual.
The pace more suitable to reduce the deficit dominates the debate
A handful of data give an idea of the implication that central banks, whose traditional task was to control inflation, have had to curb the problems of stagnation: the ECB has doubled its balance sheet, the Fed has tripled, and the Bank of England, for the same. And Japan has just approved a plan unparalleled: the central bank will double its balance sheet, and within just two years injected into the economy monetary mass equal to 30% of GDP, in order to end deflation that has dragged on for 15 years.
Luis Serven, head of research at the Macroeconomics and Growth Division of the World Bank, sees no short-term risk as "the risk of bubble generation is something you have to watch, but does not appear immediately. It is important, but not urgent ". However, we observed a paradigm shift to be faced: "These actions by central banks due to the difficulties of fiscal policy, but someday be re-monetary orthodoxy and have created a precedent."
Christine Lagarde called on the performance of governments. Not only is smooth adjustments in some cases, the IMF has also claimed that progress towards European banking union, and, in private, especially, is criticized slow banking sanitation, an impediment to credit flowing again. Lagarde called for governments to act to take the pressure off central bankers: "They can not be the only ones to move tab, there must be others who put in place the right policies" that "will relieve some of the weight that banks are bringing back ".
The IMF expects growth of 2% this year in the U.S. and 3% for the next few tenths less than they had anticipated last January, but the performance of the economy would be much better if tension to ease their budget cuts laments the Fund. The Obama administration faces a very high deficit, but has carried out the biggest adjustment in 30 years: from 10% of GDP in 2011 to 8.5% in 2013, and the plan is to finish at 6, 5% in 2014. The head of the IMF's fiscal area, Carlo Cottarelli, considered this rate "unnecessarily high" and advocated that the speed of adjustment, rather than two percentage points per year, was reduced at a rate of 1 to 1.25 points annually.
The world is moving at three speeds, with head emerging
But what do you like least Fund is the way the U.S. government has conducted deficit reduction, because in large part is due to the so-called tax kidnapping, automatic, linear reduction of spending, due to the lack of agreement politicians to develop a strategic plan. "Kidnapping has been the least efficient of austerity, it has cut all expenses, from R & D to education or defense, without stopping to look how productive they are one or the other," Kirkegaard agrees criticism.
The Fund also asked to UK, which ended 2012 with a deficit of 8.3%, to lift off the throttle in the settings. The music sounded somewhat different for euro peripheral countries such as Spain, Italy or the rescued Greece, Ireland and Portugal. There is no better example of the ravages of austerity policies to an economy in crisis: in addition to weigh on activity further away these objectives pursued budget cuts precisely. The IMF estimates that the Spanish GDP will decrease by 1.6% this year, among the worst figures in the eurozone, and provides an advance of only 0.7% for 2014, while acknowledging that the recession will continue if new settings are applied . Lagarde threw a lifeline to the Government of Mariano Rajoy to ask for "more time" to Spain, which theoretically should reduce its deficit from 10% in 2012 (three points of which are due to the banking bailout) to 3% in 2014 . Even so, the forecasts of the institution believe that goal impossible to achieve even in 2018, so when you position the fiscal deficit above 5%. It is a calculation that does not include the new stability plan that the Government wants to present next week will include measures to reduce spending.
For the whole of the eurozone, the Fund has reduced the GDP forecasts of a slight growth to a contraction of 0.3%, but more disturbing is that the main reduction of estimates corresponds to the heart of the area: the forecast Germany for 2013 has risen from 0.9% to 0.6% fall (early in January), and France has worsened a 0.4% to a contraction of 0.1% in the same period.
The new Latin American powers run the risk of creating a bubble capital leaving developed countries seeking higher returns, but the real economy is not just raise its head: the Fund estimates that this year the region will grow by 3.4%, three tenths below the previous forecast, and far from the levels of 5% before the crisis. Venezuela goes wrong stop, with expected GDP growth of just 0.1% this year, although Brazil advance 3% (against 0.9%). In 2014, Latin America's global breakthrough improvement, but the World Bank urged countries in the region to strengthen their productivity and enhance economic growth healthier.
Southern Europe lags behind due to tax cuts
The books of the future glosarán mistakes and successes, but the Bruegel Institute in Brussels next week publish a report that evaluates financial assistance programs in European countries rescued, and concludes just pointing out that the IMF, "probably paid little attention to the financial relations between the countries of the eurozone as advocated by some measures in Greece or Ireland would have effects on the rest of the monetary union, "says André Sapir, one of the report's authors.
But, of course, Europe is not without sin appears as "the IMF was right to ask for a rebalancing of the economy of the area. The austerity in deficit countries was probably inevitable, but it would have been easier if the surplus countries had been expanded at the same time. "
Sapir throws some numbers that support the view that there is some leeway. Germany had a large current account surplus of 7% in 2012, according to the IMF. This year will reach 6.1%, and in 2014, 5.7%. Even, the Eurozone has a surplus of 2%. "It would be useful only for the rest of the eurozone, but also for the world economy, if Germany expand domestic demand and reduce its current account surpluses such" wields. However, Sapir denies that this is due to achieve through fiscal stimulus, it is in favor of "giving incentives to the social partners to have a wage above what has been agreed so far."
The German Government is the main supporter of subjecting any policy to deficit reduction targets in the countries of the eurozone, austerity as the first commandment, a position that, at least privately, many analysts interpreted key domestic policy: is what voters want to hear Germans, and the German elections are in September.
Central banks are finding it increasingly difficult to boost growth, although this has more to do with the euro than with the United States, said Daniel Gros, the think tank CEPS. But Gros draws attention to the European commercial strength. In his opinion, "many observers overlook that the eurozone is increasing its current account surplus rapidly and now has advanced to Japan without the spectacular Japanese monetary ease".
In the end, "while the world talks about currency wars, the eurozone is winning it without declaring it, or at least is winning the trade war", shoots Gros. The problem is always the day after the magic of the Fed or the Bank of Japan. "Of course there are risks, you need a lot of balance, yes, but why are central bankers."
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