スペイン政府は、欧州中央銀行による金利削減のためのスペイン国債の購入の申請を渋っている。
España se esconde del rescate
Rajoy recela de pedir la ayuda al BCE por la mejora de la prima de riesgo
Las empresas e inversores presionan al Gobierno para que dé el paso
Jesús Sérvulo González Madrid 2 DIC 2012 - 01:47 CET
Spain lies Rescue
Rajoy wary of asking the ECB for help improving the risk premium
Companies and investors pressure the government to take the step
Jesus Gonzalez Sérvulo Madrid 2 DIC 2012 - 01:47 CET
The Spanish bull gores not. No start before you launch the stakes Brussels, business organizations and financial institutions to resort to second bailout. The Government of Mariano Rajoy is reluctant, for now, to apply for financial aid would allow the European Central Bank (ECB) start buying program that would reduce debt significantly improve risk premium and liquidity in the system. Investors and analysts expect a decision. Especially since bet the Executive cede before the end October. But four months after Mario Draghi, ECB president, announced in late August a lifeline for countries in trouble, including a bazooka to buy unlimited public debt, the government still plays to prevent the rescue, to hide from it.
"If someone asked in July whether Spain would be in the situation we are now in terms of funding, no one would have bet this would happen," claimed on Friday Jose Manuel Gonzalez, former member of the ECB, Bloomberg. "It is a game of expectations, the same game we are seeing since July: the expectation that they could ransom and that the ECB could intervene remained low funding costs," he explains. But Rajoy has not yet formally requested, although it has negotiated.
The storm that raged in July seems distant. Then the risk premium, the spread between Spanish bonds and German 10-year-was about 700 basis points and shot all alarms because it was fragile timbers creak that sits on the Spanish economy.
The Treasury will have to face in 2013 maturities 120,000 million
Spain accumulated a debt of around three billion euros, with b,-three times GDP. Businesses and families are about two billion and another 800,000 million public sector. The interest paid on this money makes the difference between surviving or fall into the abyss. The 775 points were bearable July. But the situation has changed.
In recent weeks, the risk premium has been relaxed. On Friday closed at 393 basis points after losing about 50 points in recent weeks because the money will come shortly Brussels-some 37,000-million to clean up troubled banks.
The Treasury has already placed all debt this year at prices better than what could be expected in summer. Once saved October when the obstacle had maturities by almost 30,000 million, almost the same amount needed to pay the annual payroll officials have been allowed to issue debt to have a cushion of extra liquidity for a tough 2013.
But the private sector is still dry, highly indebted and struggling to finance itself, which hampers their competitiveness. Test asphyxia living companies is the speed with which some banks and large companies rushed to market in early September when the announcement of Draghi opened a window of liquidity, the premium fell nearly 150 points in a few days. Then companies captured more than 8,000 million in just one week. If Spain were to stabilize the risk premium of around 200 points (one of the issues that the Government is negotiating with the ECB to accept the bailout), the private sector could save about 40,000 million in interest. Therefore, employers lobby the government increasingly explicit form to prompt the ECB to act now.
"It is true that businesses and families have a lot of debt but very few of these agents have come to the markets to finance. -SMEs account for over 90% of the business-and people come to the banks, "said David Cano, head of Financial Analysts International (AFI), recalling that" now the big companies are getting funding. "
Germany has relaxed its stance and put less red
"The private sector has no choice but to pay their debts and continue with what you have. Comes a strong financial deleveraging process (debt reduction), "explains Jesús Fernández-Villaverde, lecturer at the University of Pennsylvania and a member of Fedea. "The private net saving is very high right now and that means that private debt is shrinking," he adds. But public sector debt is fired and the coming year will be crucial. The Treasury will face maturities of over 120,000 million.
"Spain is taking less money from the rest of the world," says the professor of Fedea. "Spain has a billion euros abroad, a high percentage of it to the ECB. So I think while doing homework will not be problems, "says Fernández-Villaverde. Cano defends the rescue not only the stifling private sector or management requirements. "It is true that (the companies) lose competitiveness, affecting exports, but a high risk premium mainly affects the productive capacity of the country, the economy itself," he reflects. "Pay a growth rate above the nominal of the economy is high. Spain should pay interest at 2% -3% "slides.
Lowering the premium to 200 points seems a chimera without ECB intervention. Can the government prevent the rescue? "There are arguments against and in favor. The situation is now more stable than in summer and can negotiate better. But the day that prompted the bailout Spain lose bargaining power in Europe at a time when budgets are being discussed Europe 2014 - 2020 ", says Fernández-Villaverde. Therefore, the Government has maintained a low profile in the meetings held with European leaders this month to negotiate the next EU budget. The game is played between the racks of the big European stage. If Spain asks for help, it must be unanimously approved by each of the relevant European parliaments-issue, as the government insists. So far Germany and other northern partners (Germany and Finland) had been reluctant to resort to the mechanism that Spain ECB. Have slowed the rescue Spanish muted as European sources. Meanwhile, France and Italy intrigued Spanish aid to accelerate and build a firewall against the growing risks on their economies. But in recent weeks, Germany appears to have relaxed its stance.
Brussels to Madrid press to clear the doubts about the euro
The decision is now in the hands of Rajoy. Spain could stand unless there is a new speculative attack on its debt. That would happen if the rating agencies question their ability to pay.
The acid test will be in meeting the deficit target required by Brussels, at 6.3% of GDP. Although most people, analysts, investors and even the government itself admits that it could divert a few tenths, the red line stands at 7% of GDP. Market sources believe that if the government fails to contain the deficit below the cap back distrust of Spanish debt. In this context we must understand that the Government has not revalued pensions to the CPI.
The rating agency Standard & Poor's has noted this week that "an eventual rescue the Spanish public sector would have a negative impact from the point of view of the credit rating." Along with this statement, there have been others who rebel in the door there is a red carpet rescue for Spain of the passage. The clearest signal was issued on Thursday, Angel Gurria, secretary general of the OECD, which, after prescribing Spain a bitter syrup with new cuts and tax increases, signals Europe demanded "unequivocal" that will support an eventual request bailout of Spain. "You have to list the bazooka, finger on the trigger, but not necessary mean that you have to change hands one euro". Gurria precautionary credit refers to the ECB. It consists of a credit line without disposing it, activate the bond purchase program offered Draghi.
Nevertheless, the government is studying how to escape the harsh conditions require rescue: a twist on the labor market, pension reform, new VAT hike .... "If not finished asking the self-fulfilling prophecy can be fulfilled in a positive sense: as markets think Spain will ask the rescue buy bonds, and buy bonds, the situation improves and as more market access Spain does not need to ask the rescue "ditch Cano.
"If someone asked in July whether Spain would be in the situation we are now in terms of funding, no one would have bet this would happen," claimed on Friday Jose Manuel Gonzalez, former member of the ECB, Bloomberg. "It is a game of expectations, the same game we are seeing since July: the expectation that they could ransom and that the ECB could intervene remained low funding costs," he explains. But Rajoy has not yet formally requested, although it has negotiated.
The storm that raged in July seems distant. Then the risk premium, the spread between Spanish bonds and German 10-year-was about 700 basis points and shot all alarms because it was fragile timbers creak that sits on the Spanish economy.
The Treasury will have to face in 2013 maturities 120,000 million
Spain accumulated a debt of around three billion euros, with b,-three times GDP. Businesses and families are about two billion and another 800,000 million public sector. The interest paid on this money makes the difference between surviving or fall into the abyss. The 775 points were bearable July. But the situation has changed.
In recent weeks, the risk premium has been relaxed. On Friday closed at 393 basis points after losing about 50 points in recent weeks because the money will come shortly Brussels-some 37,000-million to clean up troubled banks.
The Treasury has already placed all debt this year at prices better than what could be expected in summer. Once saved October when the obstacle had maturities by almost 30,000 million, almost the same amount needed to pay the annual payroll officials have been allowed to issue debt to have a cushion of extra liquidity for a tough 2013.
But the private sector is still dry, highly indebted and struggling to finance itself, which hampers their competitiveness. Test asphyxia living companies is the speed with which some banks and large companies rushed to market in early September when the announcement of Draghi opened a window of liquidity, the premium fell nearly 150 points in a few days. Then companies captured more than 8,000 million in just one week. If Spain were to stabilize the risk premium of around 200 points (one of the issues that the Government is negotiating with the ECB to accept the bailout), the private sector could save about 40,000 million in interest. Therefore, employers lobby the government increasingly explicit form to prompt the ECB to act now.
"It is true that businesses and families have a lot of debt but very few of these agents have come to the markets to finance. -SMEs account for over 90% of the business-and people come to the banks, "said David Cano, head of Financial Analysts International (AFI), recalling that" now the big companies are getting funding. "
Germany has relaxed its stance and put less red
"The private sector has no choice but to pay their debts and continue with what you have. Comes a strong financial deleveraging process (debt reduction), "explains Jesús Fernández-Villaverde, lecturer at the University of Pennsylvania and a member of Fedea. "The private net saving is very high right now and that means that private debt is shrinking," he adds. But public sector debt is fired and the coming year will be crucial. The Treasury will face maturities of over 120,000 million.
"Spain is taking less money from the rest of the world," says the professor of Fedea. "Spain has a billion euros abroad, a high percentage of it to the ECB. So I think while doing homework will not be problems, "says Fernández-Villaverde. Cano defends the rescue not only the stifling private sector or management requirements. "It is true that (the companies) lose competitiveness, affecting exports, but a high risk premium mainly affects the productive capacity of the country, the economy itself," he reflects. "Pay a growth rate above the nominal of the economy is high. Spain should pay interest at 2% -3% "slides.
Lowering the premium to 200 points seems a chimera without ECB intervention. Can the government prevent the rescue? "There are arguments against and in favor. The situation is now more stable than in summer and can negotiate better. But the day that prompted the bailout Spain lose bargaining power in Europe at a time when budgets are being discussed Europe 2014 - 2020 ", says Fernández-Villaverde. Therefore, the Government has maintained a low profile in the meetings held with European leaders this month to negotiate the next EU budget. The game is played between the racks of the big European stage. If Spain asks for help, it must be unanimously approved by each of the relevant European parliaments-issue, as the government insists. So far Germany and other northern partners (Germany and Finland) had been reluctant to resort to the mechanism that Spain ECB. Have slowed the rescue Spanish muted as European sources. Meanwhile, France and Italy intrigued Spanish aid to accelerate and build a firewall against the growing risks on their economies. But in recent weeks, Germany appears to have relaxed its stance.
Brussels to Madrid press to clear the doubts about the euro
The decision is now in the hands of Rajoy. Spain could stand unless there is a new speculative attack on its debt. That would happen if the rating agencies question their ability to pay.
The acid test will be in meeting the deficit target required by Brussels, at 6.3% of GDP. Although most people, analysts, investors and even the government itself admits that it could divert a few tenths, the red line stands at 7% of GDP. Market sources believe that if the government fails to contain the deficit below the cap back distrust of Spanish debt. In this context we must understand that the Government has not revalued pensions to the CPI.
The rating agency Standard & Poor's has noted this week that "an eventual rescue the Spanish public sector would have a negative impact from the point of view of the credit rating." Along with this statement, there have been others who rebel in the door there is a red carpet rescue for Spain of the passage. The clearest signal was issued on Thursday, Angel Gurria, secretary general of the OECD, which, after prescribing Spain a bitter syrup with new cuts and tax increases, signals Europe demanded "unequivocal" that will support an eventual request bailout of Spain. "You have to list the bazooka, finger on the trigger, but not necessary mean that you have to change hands one euro". Gurria precautionary credit refers to the ECB. It consists of a credit line without disposing it, activate the bond purchase program offered Draghi.
Nevertheless, the government is studying how to escape the harsh conditions require rescue: a twist on the labor market, pension reform, new VAT hike .... "If not finished asking the self-fulfilling prophecy can be fulfilled in a positive sense: as markets think Spain will ask the rescue buy bonds, and buy bonds, the situation improves and as more market access Spain does not need to ask the rescue "ditch Cano.
リスクプレミアムを改善する助けECBを尋ねるのを警戒Rajoy
企業や投資家は、政府が一歩を踏み出すために圧力をかける
イエスゴンザレスSérvuloマドリード2 DIC 2012 - 1時47分CET
スペインの雄牛は突いていない。 2番目の救済に頼るステークスブリュッセル、企業組織や金融機関を起動する前に起動しません。マリアノRajoy政府が財政援助を申請し、今のところ、消極的である欧州中央銀行（ECB）は、システム内のリスクプレミアムと流動性を大幅に向上させ負債を削減するプログラムを買い始めるようになる。投資家やアナリストは、意思決定を期待しています。特に賭け以来エグゼクティブは10月末前に譲る。しかしマリオドラギ、ECB総裁は、8月下旬に無制限の公的債務を買うためにバズーカを含むトラブルに国のライフラインを発表し、4ヶ月後、政府はまだから非表示にするには、救助を防止するために果たしているそれ。
"誰かがスペインは、我々は資金調達の面で今の状況になるかどうか7月に依頼された場合、誰もこれが起こるに違いないんだろう"とブルームバーグ、金曜日ホセ·マヌエル·ゴンザレス、ECBの元メンバーで主張した。 "それは期待のゲームですが、我々は7月以来、見ている同じゲーム：ECBは依然として低い資金調達コストを介入する可能性があり、彼らは身代金なかったことと、その期待は、"と彼は説明します。それは交渉したものの、しかし、Rajoyはまだ正式には、要求していません。
7月に猛威を振るった嵐は遠いようだ。その後、リスク·プレミアムは、スペインの国債とドイツの間のスプレッドは約700ベーシスポイント10歳だったし、それがスペイン経済に座って壊れやすい木材のきしみだったので、すべてのアラームを撃った。
財務省は、2013年満期120,000百万に直面する必要があります
スペインは、3倍のbで、国内総生産（GDP）を約3億ユーロの債務を蓄積した。企業や家族は約2億円、別の80万百公的部門です。このお金で支払った利息は、奈落の底に生存しているか、秋の間に差が生じます。 775点は我慢7月だった。しかし、状況は変更されています。
ここ数週間で、リスク·プレミアムが緩和されました。金曜日にお金がまもなく来るので最近数週間の間に約50点を失った後、393ベーシス·ポイントで取引を終えたブリュッセル一部37000-万人が問題を抱えた銀行をクリーンアップします。
財務省はすでに夏に期待できるものよりも良い価格で今年全ての負債を置いている。障害物がほぼ30,000百万円、年間給与の職員を支払うために必要な、ほぼ同じ量の厳しい2013年のための余分な流動性のクッションを持って債務を発行することを許されてきたことにより満期を持っていたときに一度だけ10月を救った。
しかし、民間企業の競争力を妨げている、まだ、乾いた重債務とそれ自体の資金調達に苦労しています。テスト仮死リビング会社はドラギの発表は、流動性のウィンドウを開いたときに、いくつかの銀行や大企業は9月初旬に市場に駆けつけた速度である、保険料は数日で約150ポイント下落した。その後、企業はわずか1週間で8,000人以上の万人を捕獲した。スペインが約200点（政府が救済策を受け入れるように、ECBと交渉していることが問題の一つ）のリスクプレミアムを安定させるためであった場合は、民間部門が利益に約40,000百万円を節約することができます。したがって、雇用者は、ECBは今、行動を促すために政府にますます明確な形に働きかける。
"それは、企業や家族が多額の借金があるが、これらの薬剤の非常に少数が資金調達のために市場に来ていることは事実です。ビジネス、人々の銀行に来て、90％以上のため、中小企業アカウント、今や大企業は資金を得ている "と、デビッド·カノ、金融アナリストインターナショナル（AFI）の頭ことを想起し、言った"。 "
ドイツはそのスタンスを緩和し、より少ない赤入れている
"民間企業は選択の余地はありませんが、借金を支払うとあなたが持っているものを継続する。強固な財務レバレッジ解消のプロセス（債務削減）が来ます "と、ヘスス·フェルナンデス·Villaverde、ペンシルバニア大学の講師とFedeaのメンバーは説明しています。 "民間純貯蓄が今非常に高く、これは、その民間債務が縮小していることを意味し、"と彼は付け加えた。しかし、公共部門の負債が発射されており、来年は非常に重要になります。財務省は万人12万人以上の満期に直面するだろう。
"スペインは世界の残りの部分から少ないお金を取っている、" Fedeaの教授は言う。 "スペインでは、海外でECBとそれを高い割合億ユーロを持っています。だから私は宿題をしている間は問題にならないでしょうと思います "と、フェルナンデス-Villaverdeは言う。カノは救助息苦しい民間部門または管理の要件だけでなく、擁護している。 "これは、（社）輸出に影響を与え、競争力を失うことは事実ですが、ハイリスク·プレミアムは、主に国内の生産能力、経済そのものに影響を与える"と、彼は反映しています "以上の名目成長率を支払う経済の高度です。スペインが2％-3％ "スライドで利息を払う必要があります。
200ポイントにプレミアムを低くすると、ECBの介入なしでキメラと思われる。政府は救助を防ぐことができますか？ "反対と賛成の引数があります。状況は今や夏よりも安定しており、より良い交渉することができます。しかし、スペインは予算がヨーロッパ2014議論されている当時のヨーロッパにおける交渉力を失う救済促さ日 - 2020 "は、フェルナンデス-Villaverdeは言う。したがって、政府は次のEU予算をネゴシエートするために今月、欧州の指導者と開催された会議で、ロープロファイルを維持している。ゲームはビッグ欧州舞台のラックの間に再生されます。スペインに助けを求められた場合は、政府が主張するように、それは満場一致で、該当する欧州議会発行の各々によって承認されなければならない。これまでのところ、ドイツや他の北部のパートナー（ドイツ、フィンランド）は、スペイン、ECBそのメカニズムに頼るに消極的だった。ヨーロッパの源としてミュートスペイン救済を遅らせている。一方、フランスとイタリアが自国の経済成長にリスクに対するファイアウォールを加速し、構築するためにスペインの援助に興味をそそら。しかし、最近の数週間で、ドイツはそのスタンスを緩和しているように見えます。
ユーロ疑問をクリアするためにマドリッドプレスにブリュッセル
決定はRajoyの手に今ある。その債務の新たな投機攻撃が行われている場合を除きスペイン立てることができる。格付機関は支払能力に疑問がある場合はそれが起こるだろう。
酸試験はGDPの6.3％で、ブリュッセルで必要とされる財政赤字目標を満たすことになるでしょう。ほとんどの人は、アナリスト、投資家、さらには政府自体が数十分の一を紛らわせることができないと認めているものの、赤線はGDPの7％となっている。市場筋は、政府がスペインの債務のキャップ裏不信下赤字を含むように失敗した場合と考えています。この文脈において、我々は、政府が消費者物価指数への年金の再評価を行っていないことを理解しなければなりません。
格付け機関スタンダード＆プアーズは、 "最終的な救助スペイン語、公共部門が信用格付けの観点から否定的な影響を及ぼすだろう"と指摘している今週この文とともに、通路のスペインのためのレッドカーペットの救助があるドアの反乱他人がなされてきた。明確なシグナルが新しいカットと増税、信号と苦いシロップスペインを処方した後、ヨーロッパは "明確な"最終的な要求をサポートすることを要求し、アンヘル·グリアOECDの事務総長は、木曜日に発行されましたスペインの救済。 "あなたは、バズーカをリストするためにトリガーに指を持っていますが、必要ではないと、あなたは手に1ユーロを変更しなければならないことを意味する"。グリア予防的信用は、ECBを指します。それを配置することなくクレジットラインで構成され、ドラギを提供し、債券購入プログラムをアクティブにします。
それにもかかわらず、政府は厳しい状況が救助を必要と脱出する方法を検討している：労働市場のねじれ、年金改革、新たな付加価値税（VAT）の引き上げを....自己成就的予言を求めて完成していない場合は、 "肯定的な意味で成就することができます：市場はスペイン救助購入債券を聞いて、債券を買うと思いますので、状況が改善され、より多くの市場アクセスとスペインが救助を依頼する必要はありません"溝カノ。
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