スペインの経済危機の最大の問題は、600万0000人を越える失業率27%
EL PAÍS SEMANAL
De la Gran Recesión a la Gran Desafección
Europa, y sobre todo España, se han convertido en el contraejemplo. El segundo eslabón de la crisis económica tiene efectos de gran calado
Joseph Stiglitz: “Un dólar un voto expresa el fracaso de la democracia"
"Keynes tenía razón", por Paul Krugman
"La austeridad mal entendida", por Emilio Ontiveros
Joaquín Estefanía 30 DIC 2012 - 00:05 CET
COUNTRY WEEKLY
From the Great Recession to the Great disaffection
Europe, particularly Spain, have become the counterexample. The second link in the economic crisis has far-reaching effects
Joseph Stiglitz: "A dollar a vote expresses the failure of democracy"
"Keynes was right," by Paul Krugman
"Austerity misunderstood" by Emilio Ontiveros
Joaquín Estefanía 30 DIC 2012 - 00:05 CET
Before he died, in the early sixties, a leading Spanish socialist leaders, Prieto wrote: "No political understanding of the world economic crisis and not submit to him a coherent economic policy was one of the causes of failure of the Second Republic "(Seizures of Spain). Eight decades after that experience, our country is suffering a triple crisis (economic, political, European), which could become a counterexample more on other societies nearby and spend it in one of those swings to which history has so usual, from one extreme to another: the "Spanish miracle" to fail Spanish. Some international media reference have discussed this at length in recent months.
The dominant phase of the crisis is economic, as befits these times. And is particularly evident in the differentiating factor of our country with regard to our environment, what most separates us from them: the unemployment rate, which affects one in four citizens who want to work. No intermediate problems, the deficit, the debt, which are more or less common, but unemployment. An unbearable unemployment rate (TPI), as defined Joaquin Almunia when he was not yet a top official of the European Union, but an economist working in the PSOE. According to forecasts by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), in 2013 that percentage could reach 27% of the labor force, more than six million people. It should be recalled that at the height of the Great Depression, in 1933, no U.S. increased from 25% unemployment.
The economy is not working because it does not respond to the difficulties that people have
Unemployment figures are even more alarming are broken: more than 50% of those under 25 are unemployed, which calls into question the future in almost a million and a half does not enter homes or the salary of the man or the of women (in a model in which, unlike the Nordic family plays the last buffer against exclusion and extreme poverty), and every month, tens of thousands of people leave the protection system unemployment insurance because they become unemployed longer than two years of inactivity and are no longer entitled to it. One need only observe the streets and squares of our cities to recognize the number of men of working age yet (and not just women or young, second or third family supporters) who roam the same without a post job to go to every day.
In the previous economic crisis in our country, the nineties, it was to have a 24.5% unemployment in the labor force (much reduced in absolute terms than the current) in 1994 and took 13 years (until second quarter of 2007) in domeñarlo and deduct up to 7.95%, the lowest percentage in democracy today. The Spanish economy is now more flexible and is more globalized than then, but it is legitimate to ask how long you will need to return at least the percentages of unemployment before the Great Recession, let alone at full employment. In the event, as many analysts fear a jobless recovery (growth rates of the economy with lower rates of job creation), would that lost decade until recently seemed a nightmare unlikely to be present .
The second side of the Spanish crisis, has signaled that grow during the year now ending, is the political and institutional. Citizen perception, manifested in all opinion polls, could be summarized as follows: 1. The economy is not working because it does not respond to people's everyday problems. 2. The political system is not correcting this, and the main market failure is the huge volume of unemployment. The public has long relied on that system, was confident that they were going to hold accountable those who had caused the crisis, to quickly correct the abuses and protect the most disadvantaged, and not being well. 3. As a result of this, an increasing distrust in the functioning of the market economy and traditional mechanisms of democracy, and the two terms, democracy and market economy, promote the efforts do not seem fair.
The political system is not correcting the problems. The market has a huge volume of unemployment
These elements are common to at least the major Western societies, but have increased at an alarming rate in Spain in recent months, as shown by the series demoscopic Sociological Research Center (what are the main problems of Spanish citizens: the unemployment, the economic and political). The Nobel economist Joseph Stiglitz, who has studied these problems (The price of inequality), the explained by a combination of factors besides unemployment because people consider growing so it's not just the economy that is tapped, but democracy itself, for the brutal expansion of inequality (of income and wealth, opportunity and results) within societies, which would mean that the sacrifices of the crisis are poorly distributed, and the inadequacy of policies adopted to correct the most significant economic problems, mainly the impoverishment of the middle and lower classes. These policies, which at best could be legitimized by its results, taking into account only intermediate instrumental factors (deficits, debt, privatization, deregulation ...), which by its nature is impossible to mobilize the spirit of people, and forget the objectives finalists of the economy ("the good life", Keynes called them), such as employment, welfare, protection ... It is believed that this lesson had been learned, with blood, after two world wars.
The third Spanish crisis, it is becoming in permanent, is of context, environment: one that provides the club you belong to our country, the European Union. After more than five years of economic difficulties in the eurozone came last November in technical recession (two consecutive quarters contracting), the second after the one experienced in 2009, the year when everything seemed possible as they came together, in all its intensity, the financial crisis and the real economy.
The EU suffers more than other areas of the lack of adequate response to the problems, as it is practiced with contempt austerity economic policies together that goes against the consensus expressed by the majority of analysts and has deserved every Again, the name of "austericidio". In parallel, its operating procedures are exasperatingly slow as shows, better than any other example, the case of Greece, which was operated in the early part of 2010 but so far no progress has been seen-on the contrary-conditions of life of its citizens. Greece, whose GDP does not exceed 2% of the entire EU, has had a brutal ability to spread over the whole of the European economy. That combination of an austerity unanimous (led by Germany, which does not allow any dissent in the area), semi-paralysis in the EU strategic project (complement monetary union with an economic union in every way, and then a political union) and a failed management decisions which method has been to respond to every urgent problem that arose with future decisions, instead of solving the immediate bleeding, Europe is, by the end of 2012, the most remote part of the world economic recovery and the possibility of resuming their potential growth rates, the only thing that would lead to a situation of creating jobs.
Has increased distrust in the functioning of the market economy and democracy
Since the Great Recession became naturalized in the summer of 2007 and, above all, a year after the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers, appeared to have been a kind of consensus among the elites of the world around two ideas: that the recession from becoming a depression, longer and deeper than the first, and that the economic crisis deviniese in a social and political crisis, as in other recent moments in history, such as in the two decades from the years 1919-1939, the historian E. H. Carr has called "the crisis of the twenty years", in Europe characterized by an accumulation of economic stagnation, social disenchantment, then social and finally irritation political conflicts. Another year since the start of the crisis, it is not certain that this is achieved. It has spread among citizens a kind of disappointment, of growing pessimism and the idea that, despite all efforts are made to restore normality before the problems, not get at least the short to medium term.
There is a deep sense of fin de siècle or change was motivated by the aforementioned triple crisis. Intellectuals are expressing in different ways and to different degrees, but almost all of them speak of a sense of loss: of innocence, social values, trust and quality of democracy. The deepening of the difficulties underlines the feeling that has made the leap from one season to another certainties of instability and insecurity. The growing autonomy of the economic response reduces the field of collective security that represents democracy and prevailing uncertainty and anguish. If there is no capability for effective intervention by a freely elected political authority, there is no democracy. Another Nobel for Economics, Amartya Sen, has argued that democracy beyond political representation and respect for majority rule implies the protection of the rights and freedoms of individuals, access to social benefits and the right to access information, and to participate actively in collective deliberation. This is what is weakening markedly in recent times.
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