スペインの2013年の投資は、どこにする?
Si quiere réditos, tendrá que arriesgar
Los informes de estrategia señalan a la Bolsa como el mejor activo de inversión en 2013
David Fernández 30 DIC 2012 - 00:00 CET
If you want returns, will have to risk
The strategy reports point to the stock as the best asset investment in 2013
David Fernandez 30 DIC 2012 - 00:00 CET
Where do I put my money in 2013? Comes a new year and many investors are asking this question. The next course has some common characteristics with the now ending. Among them, the market will remain flush with liquidity with official interest rates at very low levels by the expansionary policies of major central banks. This is compatible with inflation will not be a headache, but that will require achieving returns above 2.5% if you want to preserve the purchasing power of savings.
In recent weeks, as is traditional, there has been a spate of reports of strategy in which banks and brokerage houses to try to predict the behavior of clients markets in the next 12 months. In these analyzes, there is a common denominator: the equity is emerging as the most attractive investment asset. Each saver, though, should modulate the increased exposure to the stock market in terms of their risk aversion and the time horizon of your investment.
"Equities, especially European, is the best asset considering the risk-return", explains José Luis Jiménez, Director General of Management March. The experts also believe that this entity Spanish Treasury bonds and deposits that offer the most solvent banks with rates above the price of money can also be interesting options. Also believe that public debt better credit quality in countries like Germany or the United States have little travel and warn that buy money market assets (liquidity) makes little sense to not even protect from inflation. As regards corporate bonds indicate that opportunities remain, but there will be more selective than in previous years.
In the market there is a sense that things from the economic point of view are straightening. However, there are still too many uncertainties, the U.S. fiscal precipice, resolution of the debt crisis in the euro zone, China slowdown, to fall in relaxation. The investor, therefore, return to live with high volatility and will have to be flexible is your strategy.
For the first time in many investors look favorably at Ibex
"Currently, we see in the world developed a broad historical valuation differential between equities and debt that is favorable to equities. Investors should consider the best way to reflect this in their asset allocation structure, "says Alan Brown, the manager Schroders. "However, we need to be cautious. The underlying economic fundamentals remain very weak and there is ample room for unpleasant surprises, especially regarding the U.S. budget cliff "he adds.
Giordano Lombardo, chief investment officer of Pioneer, notes that the world is moving towards a phase of gradual improvement in the economy in 2013 and therefore one of the planned changes is a transfer of surplus liquidity from the Exchange bonds. "In particular, we see exciting opportunities in the European stock market, which is currently very underweight in the portfolio of the world's largest institutional investors," says Lombardo.
Optimism is the word that best defines the vision of market experts Bankinter. They think they can give complete tougher set stage of the crisis, even in Europe. "The survival of the euro is no longer openly questioned and risk premiums have threatened states starting to narrow, structurally very likely" they said. Of course, remember that there are risks at all negligible as Italian political instability, the aforementioned U.S. fiscal precipice "and, of course, uncertainty about the fact that Spain finally request additional assistance." "However, we believe the most likely outcome for these three sensitive issues do not seem destructive," they insist.
With these raw from Bankinter recommend an investment strategy focused primarily on the Stock Exchange: "We believe that equities offer value and cash flow to continue addressing priority actions detrimental to other asset classes."
Public debt is somewhat overrated safest and beats the IPC
Analysts fear that this entity is producing some overstatement of premium bonds (German, but also French), while peripheral (Spanish, Italian ...) "hold some appeal" although less than last three months because of the behavior they have shown since. "We prefer European American corporate bonds, warning that it is increasingly important to choose the correct issuers. A similar, but more pronounced, advocate for high-yield corporate debt [junk bonds]. The win attractive emerging debt, but we recommend the local currency-denominated "conclude from Bankinter.
Meanwhile, Victor Alvargonzález Tressis investment director, argues that there is no good or bad scenarios. "The important thing is knowing detect them in time." In his view, investors are at a crossroads with a triple stage: that Europe regain market confidence worsen investor sentiment and the economy enters a phase japonetización, or business as usual. "We are cautiously optimistic. Albeit in fits and starts, European leaders are moving in the right direction. So we thought it would be good to have some exposure to the European stock market if there is a relief rally that would not be missed, "says Alvargonzález.
One of the most striking aspects of the recommendations of the experts is that for the first time in years, they return to look favorably on the Spanish stock market. "We believe that buying Spanish stock market is still the opportunity of the century. Although more than 30% increase in value since their lows in mid-2012, the Dow remains 35% below its level in early 2010, "according to Dennis Jose, European equity strategist of the British bank.
In corporate debt is time to be more selective
The country has asked eight brokerage firms choose their favorite Spanish stocks for next year. Companies most repeated in the selection of experts are Repsol, Abertis, with five mentions each. Telefónica, BBVA, Day and OHL contained in four portfolios, while Banco Santander, Iberdrola, Ferrovial, Almirall, Gas BME appear in three. Instead, experts give back to some of the values that have risen in 2012 as Inditex, Grifols or Amadeus.
"The possibility of a bailout is what will shape the evolution and therefore stock market strategy next year. Taking into account a number of factors, we believe that the request for help is very likely and would imply a reduction in the risk premium and, therefore, a rise in the Ibex 35, "said Alfonso de Gregorio, managing director Gesconsult .
"In relation to the Spanish stock market, we are relatively optimistic about the performance of the same. Its evolution will depend largely on the macroeconomic environment in 2013, which we expect will improve gradually, "says Juan Jose Fernandez-Figares, head of analysis at Link Securities. The expert points out that the market expects a rebound close to 30% in the business performance of listed companies. "Many of them geographically diversified and successful sales results, so rely on minimal Spanish market. However, investors have not taken into account this fact and have not discriminated, so almost all Spanish companies listed on the stock exchange have been punished because of their nationality, not their core. We believe that next year will substantially change this perception, "says Fernández-Figares.
Meanwhile, Xavier Cebrian SpreadCo manager detects two large flows of money today: the investor goes to buy fixed income and equities of companies selling defensive actions to gain exposure to securities linked to the economic cycle . "Given the still strong liquidity out of risky assets, we believe that these flows will continue in 2013. The stock markets, with the exception of the Spanish, have risen this year, but these revaluations are insignificant to the historic yet fundamental feature off. Our recommendation is clear: to be in stock and, within it, in cyclical stocks, "said Cebrian.
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