欧州委員会が、スペインの銀行を救済する条件として、預金額を大幅に越えた貸付融資の禁止、不動産の貸し付けの禁止、地域経済振興への制限などは、銀行の貸し付け融資を30%減少させて、経済復興にはほど遠い。
ANÁLISIS
Contradicciones bancarias
El recorte en plantillas y redes de las entidades del Grupo 1 restringirá el crédito en un 30%
La mayor parte del rescate se perderá
Alfonso García Mora / Ángel Berges 4 DIC 2012 - 18:08 CET
ANALYSIS
contradictions bank
The templates and cut government networking Group 1 will restrict credit by 30%
Most of the bailout will be lost
Alfonso García Mora / Ángel Berges 4 DIC 2012 - 18:08 CET
Delivering on the roadmap set by the Memorandum of Understanding, in the last week of November 2012, there was approval by the European Commission's plans for restructuring and resolution entities majority owned by the FROB, also known as Group 1, with an aggregate capital needs of 37,000 million for the four members of the group entities. This will be followed, expected on the 20th of December, the approval of plans for the Group 2 entities (in need of capital, and unable to get it on the market), and, finally, the transfer of assets of both groups the Asset Management Company (Sareb), to which the FROB will provide about 2,500 million equity. The sum of these three components (Group 1, Group 2 and Sareb own resources provided by the FROB) will determine the amount of provisions to make under 100,000 million figure expected maximum financial assistance program to the banking system agreed in June.
The EU endorsement process for estimating the capital requirements lends credibility
The fact that the final figure (around 42,000 million) is substantially less than originally requested and, above all, the unquestioned European endorsement to how you have taken all the estimation process, certainly lend credibility to it, and and markets have interpreted it, with a clear improvement in risk perception Spain.
Beyond the numbers, and their distribution between entities, the most relevant of the approval by the European Commission are undoubtedly the conditions imposed on the entities that will benefit from the contributions of capital. It was hoped that these conditions were especially hard, trying to send a clear signal to the European public that their money is not flowing freely, but carries a component of exemplary punishment and prevention of similar crises do not occur in the future. And, along with these messages, try to avoid distorting market competition as a result of public capital injected into a group of entities.
But being fully understood these arguments, the fact remains that the Spanish banking system must fulfill its primary function, facilitate financial flows into the economy, which is especially dramatic in a Spanish economy, so in need of funding, and so skewed into the banking system as almost unique financial channel, in the absence of direct financing mechanisms as in other countries.
So surprised at some of the conditions imposed on the entities for approval of its restructuring plans, and where it is difficult to find some contradictions with the basic objectives that aim to achieve these conditionalities.
The limits to the geographical and business model could ultimately creating problems
The first relates to the restrictions on credit, both quantitative (credit the balance not exceeding that of deposits in 2017) and qualitative (abandonment of the property development business and "other risk activities"). It is true that the problems of the banking system originated in the excessive leverage of credit with respect to deposits and their excessive bias towards real estate. However, in an environment in which it seems unlikely that the deposits will grow over the coming years, the adjustment will have to be produced by mass reduction credit. According to our estimates, a restriction imposed caliber will mean a cut of more than 30% credit on all three Group 1 entities (excluding the Bank of Valencia), scenario hardly compatible with the awakening of the flow of credit to productive activities our country needs. It is true that one could think of the substitution effect would be other entities that are not subject to these restrictions, but if we take into account the significant weight of Group 1 entities and credit developments in the whole system in recent years, not This effect seems to be sufficient.
Moreover, conditions are imposed on the retail business focus, leaving wholesale businesses and business units-and limit the geographic scope of activity to natural territories in those entities (Nova Galicia and Catalunya Banc) regional. That is not the case of Bankia, whose national character would do little relevant requirement back to basics. It is true that in such entities, as in many others, the problems of credit risk and financial imbalance originated in their network expansion, but with excess demand limit the scope and type of business could create problems in terms of risk diversification and profitability in the medium term.
In any case, the digestion process will be long. Much more than you would the Spanish economy to return to a path of growth that creates jobs. In response, the joint is peremptory alternative funding mechanisms that allow traders to access resources with which to fund his business and investment decisions.
* Angel Berges and Alfonso García Mora are partners and teachers Afi Afi-School of Applied Finance.
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