スペインの財政赤字削減政策による賃金引き下げは、景気回復をもたらさないで、国内市場の沈下、財政歳入の減少,失業手当ての増大により、財政赤字の拡大になり、経済沈降の原因に、正反対の結果!
ANÁLISIS
Devaluación y sostenibilidad de deuda
En 2013 tendremos un superávit por cuenta corriente. España SA ya ha hecho la mayor parte de su ajuste estructural
José Carlos Díez 25 NOV 2012 - 00:01 CET
ANALYSIS
Devaluation and debt sustainability
In 2013 we will have a current account surplus. SA Spain has already done most of its structural adjustment
José Carlos Díez 25 NOV 2012 - 00:01 CET
SA Spain suffers a severe debt crisis. This pathology characteristic of emerging countries, but now happens in countries immersed. The crisis comes after a period of extreme accessibility to international credit goes to one of extreme restriction. International investors fear a possible devaluation and / or non-payment of debt and stampede flee the country.
Unable to finance the debt, the country needs to generate roughly one current account surplus increased to stop the debt dynamics. In emerging countries the IMF was responsible for finance and enforce compliance, and prescribed what was known as the pill Fund: fiscal adjustment and devaluation combined with expansionary monetary policy to revive growth. The fall in domestic consumption and imports sinking exchange rate devaluation process oils. The goal is to transfer capital and employment of domestic sectors to survive by exporting overseas sales.
In Europe, countries lack the monetary and exchange policy. Therefore, the analysis is simplistic and making fiscal adjustment combined with a reduction in wages which is equivalent to a devaluation of the exchange rate. It is clear that in Europe troika pill is not effective. First, many countries suffer from the debt crisis and make the fiscal adjustment at a time. This has already happened in the debt crisis of 1982 and the 1997 Asian Fund and the pill did not work either.
The problem is that capital flight is withering, and economies do not have time to generate the external surplus sufficient to stabilize the debt. Wages are rigid downwards and fiscal adjustment, mixed with a credit crisis and no devaluation is deflation. As in the Great Depression to the gold standard. Deflation uninhibited internal devaluation and debt increases in real terms. Therefore, raising fears of investors and capital flight intensifies.
Spain SA does not have a competitiveness problem, has a debt problem
The outbreak of the Greek crisis in 2009 led to a balkanization of European savings. Until then, we thought that entering the euro had redeemed from original sin Spain SA foreign borrowing. Suddenly woke up with a debt of 1.8 billion euros could not get financing. The debt crisis of the eighties, the debt restructuring is over 40 countries was 20 times lower. Between January and August 2012 left Spain 200,000 million investment by non-residents, 20% of GDP. Only access to the ECB and debt purchase announced it prevented a further sharp slowdown in our economy.
Spain joined the euro with undervalued exchange rate and our productivity has improved significantly since then. Our wages are low compared to our major competitors, and our inflation differential was mainly business margins. We have diversified export goods and increased differentiation. This explains why our exports have been the best behaved in the eurozone since 2009.
In a country with an unemployment rate of 25% should be continued wage moderation, lower margins and non-export sectors improve productivity. But in 2013 we will have a current account surplus from a deficit in 2007 of 10% of GDP. Therefore, Spain SA has already done most of its structural adjustment.
Spain SA does not have a competitiveness problem, has a debt problem. What economists know is that countries that do not grow, can not pay their debts. To grow you must: 1. Delaying our deficit target of 3% by 2016. 2. Countries with bank must approve fiscal stimulus to end the recession. 3. The ECB should start buying bonds and that requires our government call the rescue. 4. We must restructure the debts can not be paid, especially in Greece. 5. You have to recapitalize European banks, starting with the Germans, who are half a country junk triple A.
Many economists took from the summer of 2011 warning that Europe was heading into recession and complicating the debt crisis. Unfortunately, the ideas that the current tax policy remain intact. As the teacher taught us Dornbusch, pathology expert on this debt crisis, "economic imbalances last longer than we think economists and always corrected more sharply than expected." There is room and time to resolve this crisis. The question is do we need another financial tsunami as Lehman to react? Currently there are no signs of intelligent life in Europe.
José Carlos Díez Intermoney is chief economist and economics professor ICADE.
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