経済協力開発機構（OECD）の経済学者の中間報告は、スペインの2013年の失業率は27%に達し、やく600万0000人が失業者に
España superará los seis millones de parados en 2013 y 2014, según la OCDE
La recesión se agravará en 2013, con una caída que triplica a la que prevé el Gobierno
El Gobierno se quedará lejos de cumplir los objetivos de déficit, según el organismo
La OCDE desaconseja recortes adicionales para cumplir con las metas
La Eurozona es aún el mayor riesgo para la economía
Miguel Mora París 27 NOV 2012 - 11:00 CET
Fuente: OCDE / El País
Spain than six million unemployed in 2013 and 2014, according to the OECD
The recession will worsen in 2013, down triple the government providing
The Government will remain far from meeting the deficit targets, according to the agency
The OECD recommended additional cuts to meet targets
The eurozone is still the biggest risk to the economy
Miguel Mora Paris 27 NOV 2012 - 11:00 CET
The interim report of the economists of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) on Spain paints a bleak picture, with no green shoots that the familiar: exports. Moreover, the analysis is a string of bad omens: the recession will intensify in 2013, and unemployment will rise to 26.9% in 2013 and only one tenth lower in 2014, thus surpassing long six million unemployed . The country will also pay "the toll of fiscal adjustment, weaker demand from its partners and the difficult financial conditions." The government can not meet its deficit targets, which fall only gradually, as the GDP will decrease by 1.4%, nearly three times what the government says (-0.5%). Furthermore, the debt will continue to increase, reaching 97.6% of GDP in 2014.
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The worst part is the labor market leads. The OECD forecasts suggest that unemployment will close 2012 at 26.3%, which, with the current labor force, and would overcome the bar of the six million unemployed. But even that level was avoided in this quarter, unemployment will continue to rise next year, when both the average and the year-end will be, according to OECD estimates, 26.9%, and well above six million unemployed. In 2014 the agency forecasts point to a minimal reduction in unemployment would fall to 26.8% in annual average and 26.6% at year-end.
The OECD incurred and certifies all the contradictions of neoliberal policies that prescribe wild for years public sector cuts and austerity discretion. The report states that "the ambitious fiscal consolidation plan is appropriate and necessary to restore confidence," assumes that the government will take measures to adjust for the 2.7% of GDP in 2013 and a point of GDP in 2014, and concludes that prevent weak growth meet deficit targets even in 2012, when he expected to stand at 8.1% of GDP, well above the target of 6.3% even after deducting a point associated with aid to banking . And explains squaring the circle: "It is expected that fiscal consolidation will have a more profound effect than usual on growth in an environment of tight credit, which recommended additional measures to meet the nominal targets, especially if growth is weaker than predicted by the government. " In that case, says the OECD, it is better to leave it on automatic stabilizers (lower revenues and higher expenses associated with the crisis) while bypassing the deficit targets.
The OECD believes that Spain will not be able to meet the deficit targets in the short term
Economists at the Paris-based agency believe that the Spanish economy will continue to decline in 2013, and there could be a slight recovery in 2014, 0.5% of GDP. But these estimates are significant risks: on the downside, if turbulence in the euro zone rising costs of debt and bank loans, and that will weaken the growth of trading partners of Spain, which would worsen the recession and deficit. But he warns that trying to counter this with further cuts would hurt even more activity in the short term and could lead to a deterioration in the perception of Spain by the financial markets.
On the upside, the European Union and banking direct recapitalization of the banks, that Germany did not want, could break the vicious cycle that fiscal adjustment relates to the situation of the banks. And exports could grow faster by reducing labor costs.
Very far from meeting the deficit
The OECD points out, however, that Spain may not meet the deficit targets in the short term, but believes it is vital that the government detail an action plan to meet the medium-term objectives and complete them. Economists estimate that the organism, after 8.1% this year, the deficit will be 6.3% in 2013 and 5.9% in 2014, the year in which the Spanish government is committed to fitting by below 3%.
The study advises the Spanish government to follow the path of structural reforms to grow again, though she says it remains to be seen whether the reforms of the labor market and collective agreements "are really effective." Also advised to reduce school failure and improving access to higher education to care for long-term growth.
The agency believes it is essential that the government detail an action plan
On the plus side, the OECD notes that Spain has improved competitiveness, which has produced advances in market shares for exports, which remain strong outside the European Union. The report welcomes the trade balance is in positive for the first time since 1998, bridging the gap from 10% of GDP in 2007 to 2% today.
Projections for Spain organism depend, in any case, that the Government continue recapitalizing viable banks and closing unviable, "which help a gradual return of credit healthy." The capital needs of the banking system, as reviewed by Oliver Wyman, are around 54,000 million for an unfavorable scenario, the OECD points out, far from the 100,000 million agreed in the European credit line. The report also recommends placing the emphasis on banking reform "as planned", and recommended that holders of debt of nationalized banks "absorb the losses."
The agency also believes that the rapid entry into force of the EU banking supervision and direct recapitalization of banks with European funds would put the Spanish economy "at a higher speed lane to recovery."
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