スペインは、生産性(競争性)回復のために、労働改革による賃金の引き下げや、解雇による労働賃金条件などの引き下げによる経済競争性の回復を目指す
El ajuste encoge los salarios
La rebaja de los sueldos se una a la destrucción de empleo como vía para recuperar productividad
La renta de los trabajadores cada vez pesa menos en el PIB
Manuel V. Gómez 25 NOV 2012 - 00:27 CET
The setting wages shrinks
The reduction of salaries joins job destruction as a means to recover productivity
The income of workers increasingly weighs less in GDP
Manuel V. Gomez 25 NOV 2012 - 00:27 CET
Labor reform is fulfilling one of its goals: wage devaluation. So far it has failed in the other. It has stimulated recruitment which is not getting off. Temporality has not stopped the endemic Spanish labor market. And job losses continues campando at ease, when the crisis is heading for its sixth year. On the other hand, is making the adjustment of salaries and getting businesses recover Spanish this way, and by the layoffs, part of the competitiveness lost during the expansion.
The so-called internal devaluation progresses with each data on wages, conventions, GDP or CPI. While prices are rising at an annual rate of 3.5%, wages rise by 1.4%. And it is likely that the latter figure falls short, as it considers only given collective bargaining so far in 2012, far behind. So far, only 4.8 million workers are covered by an agreement signed this year, the rest of employees who are covered, according to the law, have their salaries frozen. Nor are contemplated in statistics over 400 agreements signed between representatives of employers and workers aware that the Ministry of Employment-communication to the labor authority is not required in enterprise agreements, as noted by Toni Ferrer , secretary-UGT union action for not following the conditions agreed in the higher-level agreements (state or provincial sectors).
The labor reform and the covenant of employers and unions devaluation drives
Despite these shortcomings, it is likely that the trend data suggest steepens. This can be checked in mid-December, when known new quarterly labor cost statistics. In the latest edition, the second quarter, wage costs had been frozen in 1979 euros per month, the same as the previous year. And considering that this study did not analyze the behavior of public salaries, which since 2010 have lost around 20% of its purchasing power.
With all these numbers on the table, can be predicted that in the coming quarters the shrinking share of wages in national wealth, now at a record low 45.6%, it is still lower.
"Behind it is the labor reform," Angel Laborda blunt statement. The opinion of the director of the joint panel of Funcas is unanimous among economists, coming from the stream to proceed. Think and Fernando Luengo, Complutense University professor, very critical of the internal devaluation and its consequences (loss of purchasing power of employees fall in consumption ...). So does Miguel Angel Garcia, head of the economic cabinet of CCOO, supporter of wage moderation if accompanied containment company margins and adjustment of regulated prices (energy, fuel, taxes, public transport ...) . And I think Marcel Jansen, Foundation for Applied Economic Studies (Fedea), defender of the process as the only way to economic recovery.
Jansen adds another cause: the agreement signed by UGT, CCOO and CEOE earlier this year. And it calls attention to a fact that is contrary to normal behavior: until October the record companies signed agreements in wage increases (1.5%) higher than those signed in the sectors (1.2%).
Since the crisis began, Spain has regained competitiveness
Luengo also another form of adjustment points being given. "In less time and with fewer resources are becoming more tasks," complains the least orthodox economists polled for this report, based on his research on the industry of capital goods. In other words, it works by the same pay more or less, thus increasing productivity.
The story ends up starting wage devaluation-and almost inevitably make it known. During the growing years, especially since the introduction of the euro, Spain loses much competitiveness. So much that in 2007 and 2008, the current account deficit stood at around 100,000 million (10% of GDP). Only the United States, among developed countries, had a gap of similar magnitude.
To reach this imbalance was necessary for many Spanish companies lose productivity. How much? The figure depends on which variable is used and for what period. Using the productivity (the ratio between production and proceeds to do so), the loss of the entire economy was about 18 points over the eurozone since 1993. If labor costs are used in manufacturing (an index that measures what it costs to produce what is exported), the loss would be 20 points since starting the euro.
Closing that gap is what was intended when the Executive launched the latest labor reform, argue in the Ministry of Economy. Also entered accelerate plans to promise a two-point reduction in social contributions (the end of the day, labor cost), but the ailing state of Social Security accounts eventually led the Executive to waive this alternative.
In the absence of monetary policy tool, the devaluation of the currency has traditionally been the mechanism, the euro area governments have to resort to one of the few alternatives that open internal devaluation: real wages fall to lower prices and, at the end of the chain, sell and export more to pull the external sector of the economy.
This year the balance of goods and services will end with a positive balance
In fact, the gap had begun to close since 2008. Although he did-and still does-in the worst way possible: job destruction. At the end of the day, there are two ways to reduce the wage bill: reducing salaries or laying off. And a third: the two at the same time. This route was opened in February, with the labor reform. Since then, the number of companies that combines layoffs and salary reductions increases. According to a study conducted among 300 companies by Adecco and Sagardoy, a law laboralista usually linked to large firms, almost 40% has combined measures paths.
"Yes that's happening," confirms Luis Zumalacárregui, a labor lawyer who clients include employers and employees. "In addition, when a company makes a sector, the rest have to do if you want to compete on equal terms," he adds.
The combination of lower wages and job destruction increases the risks of devaluation itself all wage: excessive fall in domestic consumption and greater difficulty of those affected to cope with their debts. Spain is facing at the moment, both dangers, and does so in a very unfavorable international context. Throughout the crisis, the external sector has performed well. In 2012 even likely that the trade balance of goods and services have a positive balance for the first time in years. But the constant cooling European economic growth potential remains an engine that should largely replace domestic consumption to begin employment doldrums.
As noted by Miguel Angel García, CCOO, Spain is still a very small external sector for the benefits of the internal devaluation have an immediate result. Today is exported just over 32% of GDP. In Latvia, a country that launched successfully this option at the beginning of the crisis, this percentage rises to 50%. Getting to the portion of the Baltic country is one of the challenges, the union, but "without looking for shortcuts productive with added value," he adds.
Companies are combining layoffs with salary adjustments
It will not be easy. The internal devaluation is a path they have taken practically all the peripheral countries of the eurozone. Only in Italy, according to Eurostat, labor costs are rising in recent years. In the rest (Ireland, Greece, Portugal and Spain), the trend is reversed, to a greater or lesser extent.
This Dutch auction between partners can eventually extend the process over time. For Garcia, Spain and is located near the end. "It should end about next year," he explains. According to aggregate productivity figures, Spain has regained about 13 of the 18 points he lost.
Less optimistic are Fedea. On this foundation, a liberal, is estimated to go missing halfway. "I think we should freeze wages [which is an actual descent] for years," explains Marcel Jansen. This professor of economics at the University speaks the example of his country, the Netherlands, where wages were frozen for most of the nineties and where the crisis hit less virulence than in southern Europe. He thinks this will not end or a year or two. What is necessary for Jansen, Luengo tackles for Spain to a "social fracture" and a "vicious circle very pessimistic."
Of course, the content of the labor agreement signed by unions and employers may end up recommending a freeze until 2014. And new agreements being signed, not only are resulting in much lower salary increases (0.69%) than those signed in previous years (1.5%), but are agreeing by longer periods of what was done until now.
At the point that there is coincidence is that the march of prices and profit margins threatens to scuttle wage devaluation. He has warned the Bank of Spain, a supporter of the measure. And what a detractor as Luengo says: "Bajan wages and prices are not, or not in equal measure."
There are still several years of wage contraction
Not according the Ministry of Economy. He does not say it openly, but his argument prefer his attention to the GDP deflator, an index measuring prices of an economy, excluding imports, and it takes several quarters below 0.5%, as INE. A figure that contrasts with the 3.5% in November marking the CPI, the index that seeks to measure the evolution of the shopping cart, pushed by the VAT increase last September.
Anyway, at this point neither the international aid. The CPI in the euro area grew by 2.5%. And it is in economies that inflation should behave for their part in the economic recovery where prices grow less. In Germany only rose by 2.1%.
Also close the way the great burden of debt, both public and private. Whoever loses part of his salary (or lose your job), do not see how it should decline, which, in the best case, eventually lead to less consumption.
In the case of public debt, size, path 90% of GDP, adds another obstacle. The lower consumption and reduced wages means less revenue for the public coffers. Consistently, fewer resources. At this point, again appears counterexample of Latvia. When in Riga began to devalue wages, public debt was 10% of GDP.
For reasons like this, the IMF's chief economist, Olivier Blanchard, a supporter of the path taken by Spain, warns the Baltic analyze the case: "Certainly, the adjustments that have to do many of these countries [the south, including Spain] are smaller than that of Latvia. But their economies are less flexible and open. They have less potential productivity gains [...] and its public debt is much heavier. So these lessons are not easily exportable. And we must not make the illusion that the settings in the south will be easy and painless. In this context, the argument for the social compact, and faster implementation of wage and price adjustments [...] is very strong. "
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