欧州中央銀行は、スペインの銀行の経営内容の本当の姿が分らないので、スペインの銀行への資本増強のための融資を引きずずき続行すると
The ECB proposes to extend the rescue
The European institutions and the IMF are relevant a temporary extension of aid to Spain
El BCE plantea prorrogar el rescate
Las instituciones europeas y el FMI ven pertinente una extensión temporal de la ayuda a España
El Gobierno descarta pedir más dinero
Claudi Pérez Bruselas 10 JUN 2013 - 01:01 CET
The ECB proposes to extend the rescue
The European institutions and the IMF are relevant a temporary extension of aid to Spain
The Government rules out asking for more money
Claudi Pérez Brussels 10 JUN 2013 - 01:01 CET
Nobody knows exactly how are the banks. The only certainty is that the recapitalization is not yet over: that's the message in Frankfurt, Brussels, Washington, up in Madrid. The European Central Bank (ECB), along with other continental institutions and the International Monetary Fund (IMF), raises the possibility of extending the program of financial assistance to Spain beyond the end of the year, said a senior source confirmed the Eurobanco and other three sources close to European and IMF. The objective is to serve as a safety net against future-safe and virtually-capital needs of Spanish banks. It will take more money. So the debate on the possible extension is already on the table of those who tutelan financial aid program and shall be conducted after the summer if negotiations curdle.
La Moncloa ruled emphatically that will ask for more funds. But the extension would dispel uncertainties when surface the new capital requirements. That will be in just a few months, after a test prepared by the Bank of Spain to fall, or at the latest next spring, when the ECB published its comprehensive evaluation to the European banking sector, just before becoming single supervisor.
Spain has asked its partners 41,300 million, up 100,000. The government has no interest in requesting the rest. And the program expires on December 31: what is being discussed is to give extra time to avoid unpleasant surprises after consideration of the ECB, due in June 2014. If there is needed more capital, the government swears it has leeway: there are resources in the barn Spanish rescue fund (FROB) and the Treasury can be financed relatively comfortable if the dealer can not do it by itself. However, the extension should act as a dam: Madrid explore that option, according to sources, if the soothing effects derived from this kind of insurance outweigh the political stigma associated and provided more reluctant partners not ask counterparties unacceptable.
The extension will enable "if necessary", according to Frankfurt
"The facility is there and the possibility of an extension will be activated if necessary", confirmed to this newspaper a high source of the ECB. Others suggest that this initiative is welcomed in Frankfurt and the IMF. Also in Brussels: "Spain can raise funds for banks on their own, but the European credit line can act as a psychological barrier, that nervousness does not spread," a source abounds.
The restructuring of the Spanish banking system is well under way, according to the latest review of the troika (ECB, Commission and IMF), but has failed to dispel doubts in the markets, or even in the institutions that hold the reins of the program. The recession drags on, unemployment is at record highs, high private debt and the rapid increase in public are a drag and will continue deflating housing bubble several quarters: banking raw suffers this progressive deterioration. Moreover with what awaits you: the new rules of the Bank of Spain forced the industry to increase by 10,000 million of provisions (capital buffers against expected losses) related to the refinancing of loans, many of them linked to the brick. No news of the ECB on the side of the extraordinary measures to unclog the credit to SMEs, and asset impairments related to the recession and unemployment, vulnerability of banking will more and can be uncovered in the consideration of ECB, while the Bank of Spain planning to make a less exhaustive pretest to avoid shocks.
The option is subject to the partners do not pose unacceptable conditions
Spanish banks, which looks back on a demanding restructuring is not going to require more capital, European sources suggest. Some entities German, French and Dutch (and some Belgian) loaded with toxic assets that have not yet recognized. The problem will come if the ECB announces a hole in several countries and nothing is ready for taponarlo, despite all the fanfare associated with the banking union, which is still under discussion in Brussels and in which almost the only thing that is clear is that the ECB will become supervisor on time. Its president, Mario Draghi, on Thursday urged governments to activate "a safety net" in the event that the test detects ECB capital needs. That is the elephant in the room of the EU, because Draghi has incentives to do a tough stress test. It plays its credibility and from there will be the supervisor who blame the holes that arise.
If the hardness is confirmed, Spain is one of the weak links in the flank of the bank and the sovereign. Hence, the ECB and other institutions are committed to the extension even assuming that Spain goes well stop after restructuring. That leaves Madrid and its partners to a question Hamlet: the passage in the markets is relatively placid, whereas this extension, which requires green light from Eurogroup, "might be the wrong signal to end peace," according to European sources. To extend or not to extend: the alternative, doing nothing while waiting for a recovery that does not arrive, is to leave that mess for later. And the mess, sooner or later, come. Although the official discourse clings to improve things, and it is true that there are some other encouraging sign is crisis time and it is increasingly clear that Spain fell short with 41.300 million requested.
The rescue, finally, officially closes at the end of the year and an extension "would be possible if it decides it is appropriate, but not the time to talk about that," a spokesman clarifies Community. "The program is achieving its objectives and the banking situation improves, but remains fragile. So you have to complete your application and monitoring the risks associated with the recession and real estate. We will assess the situation in the autumn, we will see what to do then, "closes.
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