ブリュッセルではない "上の"住宅価格の補正と予測している
2007年から30％以上の下落は、ECによると、少なくとも2014年まで継続します
Brussels predicts that the correction of housing prices "not over"
The depreciation of over 30% since 2007, will continue until at least 2014, according to the EC
Bruselas vaticina que la corrección del precio de la vivienda “no ha acabado”
La depreciación, de más del 30% desde 2007, continuará al menos hasta 2014, según la CE
El sector de la construcción no tocará fondo hasta 2015
La Comisión Europea dicta los plazos de las reformas
Claudi Pérez Bruselas 31 MAY 2013 - 00:43 CET
desde 2007.
Brussels predicts that the correction of housing prices "not over"
The depreciation of over 30% since 2007, will continue until at least 2014, according to the EC
The construction sector will not bottom until 2015
The European Commission dictates the timing of the reforms
Claudi Pérez Brussels 31 MAY 2013 - 00:43 CET
"The price of flats will never go down." The Spanish real estate superbubble generated during the years of the government of José María Aznar and José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero, was swelling with a mixture of low interest rates and easy credit, but never have reached such dimensions as toxic without almost religious element, crecepelo mixing bottle and snake ointment Wild West: "The price of flats will never go down." Once unmasked the great milonga, the European Commission says, the review of the Spanish economy presented on Wednesday, that prices will continue to fall until at least 2014, after a cumulative decline now exceeding 30% since 2007.
Sources: INE and Ministry of Development. / COUNTRY
Shall be at least seven years of continuous loss of value for an asset that represents 87% of the financial wealth of Spanish families. The property also accounts for nearly half of the 3.6 million jobs lost during the crisis, it has as the main cause of the fiscal problems of the state and the banking bailout and, according to Brussels, has yet to give serious headaches for individuals, entrepreneurs, bankers and Spanish rulers.
"The adjustment of the sector has been remarkable, but has not yet bottomed out," the Commission's analysis. Although the fall of the prices of apartments accelerated in 2012, the number of homes for sale is still very high: 700,000 new homes expected buyer. The sluggish demand does not improve: uncertainty, crisis and unemployment take their toll, with the decline in household disposable income and a disturbing decline in population. And the banking problems do the rest: "The restrictive financial conditions \ [ie, lack of credit at affordable \] and expectations of further price declines also contribute to depress demand," said the report, which points out other causes such as the withdrawal of the deduction for home purchase and the presence of bad-Sareb-bank market, wanting to get rid of toxic assets of the banks.
The value of property almost tripled between 1997 and 2008 by the bubble
The price stabilization will not arrive until 2014, at least on average: the conditions are considerably different in the different autonomous. Overall Brussels notes that Spain still has a ways in that long journey through the desert, since the first price declines were recorded back in 2008. This time is no different: the economic history shows that when a country faces a property bust accompanied by an acute financial crisis, and Spain is a book case, the adjustment takes seven years to complete.
The effects of price reductions are multiple and interconnected. Households, firms and banks remain exposed to high levels of debt in an asset that loses value rapidly. The failures continue to rise, despite efforts to reduce the debt of the whole economy. Spain, in short, is impoverished if one keeps falling assets which cemented his impressive growth in the late nineties and much of the past decade: "The total wealth remains high compared to the international average, but the short-term outlook for both income to equity, are negative, as unemployment continues to rise and is expected to continue the downward trend in house prices, "says the study.
The prices almost tripled between 1997 and 2008: the fall in nominal terms (not adjusted for inflation) stood at 31%, and in real terms by 38%, so there is still room despite cuts have increased in recent quarters.
If, on the demand side the situation is worrying, for the supply side there is no signs for optimism: the fall in investment and employment in the construction sector continues, driven by the decline in housing . The share of housing investment in total GDP fell from 12.5% of GDP in 2006 to 5.3% in 2012, below the record low of 7% in 1997. And the setting is not yet complete, despite the weight of employment in construction is the lowest since 1976. "The industry could not bottom until 2014-2015," according to black omens of Brussels.
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