ラインハルトは、財政調整が十分ではないことを警告
Reinhart warns that fiscal adjustments are not sufficient
Reinhart advierte de que los ajustes fiscales no son suficientes
La catedrática de Harvard pide una reestructuración de la deuda en la Reunión del Círculo de Economía
Lluís Pellicer Sitges 31 MAY 2013 - 12:01 CET
Reinhart warns that fiscal adjustments are not sufficient
The Harvard professor calls for debt restructuring at the Meeting of the Economic Circle
Lluís Pellicer Sitges 31 MAY 2013 - 12:01 CET
The recipe for the exit of the crisis is complicated as the cocktail that composes new ingredients are added. On the first day table XXIX Economy Circle Meeting, held in Sitges, have been virtually all the recession, unemployment, imbalances in the public accounts, the political context in the European Union, especially , indebtedness, both public and private. At that point has been stopped to begin with, Professor of International Financial Systems at Harvard Kennedy School, Carmen Reinhart, who has warned that the current crisis has led to a "financial-globalization", which in his opinion is being "very pronounced ", and a return of" financial repression "consisting of" major credit controls "by which states seek to maintain" low interest rate "and even negative debt. "It's a bondholder tax", said Reinhart.
The economist has opted for a debt restructuring and a "high inflation path." "There are no easy solutions," he warned, because "the surf is high level." The economist has found that out of the crisis is to make structural reforms to "raise medium-term growth," and tax adjustments. That has stopped to point out: "Despite how I put the press in recent weeks," referring to the controversy caused by the error in Excel tables that were detected in the data calculation for a reference work that developed by Rogoff in 2010 on the debt. "Fiscal adjustment necessarily imposed because funding decreases, but not enough," he argued.
Reinhart has reiterated that the current crisis "overhang" is not "typical". "Not a single country, but many countries simultaneously. In work that we did with Vincent Reinhart saw how severe crises are associated with increases in unemployment. In ten of the 15 crisis that saw the unemployment rate does not return to pre-crisis levels for a decade, "he warned. Within that private debt restructuring Reinhart has held that "the least understood component is trying to keep senior debt of banks when the evidence is clear that the prices of the assets backing the debt have fallen dramatically and there is no prospect of to be restored in the short term. " Reinhart has been concerned it is 2013 and there is an improvement in the situation in Europe.
The European Thursday Justice and Home Affairs and the current president of the think tank Notre Europe, António Vitorino, has agreed that "the answer" to the European crisis "must be political" and consist of "medium-term structural reforms" and actions "of emergency. " "Short term urgency is unemployment, especially among young people, because we're about to lose a generation. The numbers are frightening and unsustainable from the point of view of social cohesion and peace, "warned Vitorino, who has urged to get to the real economy 7,000 million which is intended to combat youth unemployment. On the future of European integration, Vitorino has advocated a "federal federalism" consisting of "transfer of sovereignty" concrete admitting that the "heart" of the Union is the euro zone. In parallel, has demanded a great deal between France and Germany - "without him, there is no future for the European integration project," he argued, and keep the UK in the EU. "Yes, the British are sometimes unbearable, difficult and complicated, but it affects the balance of the Franco-German axis," said.
The deputy manager of the European Stability Mechanism (ESM) and former Secretary of State for the Economy, David Vergara, has highlighted two areas in which the EU has advanced: labor costs and current account balances. Vergara explained that Greece's deficit in 2007 was 17% of gross domestic product (GDP), while that of Spain was 10%. "To date these deficits, which express the external financing needs of countries have disappeared," he stressed. The ESM deputy noted that this is the first step to "we continue to accumulate debt" on par "public accounts" have embarked on a path towards levels "more sustainable".
The RACC Foundation director and member of the Board of the Economic Circle said that despite the five years during which it is prolonging the crisis there are still "many things to do." "We have not achieved that monetary policy works smoothly and we have seen a nationalization of monetary flows, do not know if we saved the financial institutions crisis and if we further capitalize our banks even carry five financial system reforms, not overcome credit drought and fail to delineate the relative risk of sovereign risk in private debt, "he listed.
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