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スペイン政府は、2012年の国内総生産の経済成長率は、ー1'70%で、2013年はー1'50%(+0'2%ではなく)と予想
El Gobierno prolonga la recesión a 2013 pero prevé menos destrucción de empleo
Economía prevé que el PIB baje un 0,5% en 2013, cuando en abril vaticinaba un alza del 0,2%
Se mejora el pronóstico económico de 2012 en dos décimas, para situarlo en el -1,5%
La tasa de paro promedio para este año se eleva al 24,6% y se deja en el 24,3% para 2013
El Ejecutivo asume que la legislatura acabará con más paro que cuando llegó al poder
The Government extends the expected recession in 2013 but fewer job losses
Economy GDP expected to drop 0.5% in 2013, when in April predicted a rise of 0.2%
Improving the economic outlook in 2012 by two tenths, to put it in the -1.5%
The average unemployment rate for this year amounts to 24.6% and 24.3% left for 2013
The executive assumes that the legislature will end with more unemployment when it came to power
Alejandro Bolaños Madrid 20 JUL 2012 - 16:27 CET
Economy GDP expected to drop 0.5% in 2013, when in April predicted a rise of 0.2%
Improving the economic outlook in 2012 by two tenths, to put it in the -1.5%
The average unemployment rate for this year amounts to 24.6% and 24.3% left for 2013
The executive assumes that the legislature will end with more unemployment when it came to power
Alejandro Bolaños Madrid 20 JUL 2012 - 16:27 CET
In just over two months, the government has been forced to rectify many of the figures on which it bases its economic policy. Private research services and international organizations gave for good the fall in GDP (-1.7%) projected by the Executive Rajoy this year, but the estimated revenue and expenditures which were reflected in the budget from that estimate. The forecast of 2013, however, was the forecast of GDP (an increase of 0.2%) that focused the objections of the experts, too optimistic. A week ago, the government has already amended its budget by announcing a further adjustment drive, which values at 65,000 million. And just days ago was Rajoy himself who took it would have to lower the forecast of 2013, as just reported the following Executive Cabinet: now places that forecast at -0.5% and assumes that this recession will be around two years. Also, something better estimate for this year, leaving his prediction of GDP by -1.5%.
"The new forecasts are in the field published by international organizations, are much like those you just supply the International Monetary Fund," said the minister. Indeed, the forecast of GDP is almost a carbon copy of the latest IMF forecast, which is only one tenth worst in 2013 (-0.6%). And is situated halfway between the OECD, more pessimistic (-0.8%) and the European Commission (-0.3%). Several research services and international private Spanish, however, raise the back by 2013 more than -1.5%.
Several studies raised the services back in 2013 beyond the -1.5%
The question that makes this review of the Government that both the IMF, like other international organizations and private experts, not included in its estimates the impact of huge budget adjustment recently approved by the Spanish. Montoro avoided the question at the press conference and claimed only that the budgets are developed "in order not to exacerbate the decline in economic activity." The problem is that most experts agree that measures such as the increase in VAT and the reduction of salaries of officials, which were approved last week, have an impact on consumption and GDP. And they reflected in future forecasts.
The impact of this downward revision of GDP in the labor market is paradoxical in light of the limited data provided by the finance minister in the press conference after the Council of Ministers. The Government updated its forecast for the unemployment rate, which had become outdated. He thus believes that the unemployment rate this year will beat their recorded history and will be located on average in 24.6%, when in April predicted an average of 24.3%. However, by 2013, the change is minimal, 24.2% to 24.3%, despite the drastic reduction of forecast GDP. And the forecast for 2014 (23.3%) and 2015 (21.8%) improved. Despite this, the Government assumes that remain above the level that was found when he came to power, which closed 2011 at 21.6%.
More striking still is the provision that has reported the Ministry of Economy at the Council of Ministers on the change in employment. Here, the Executive believes that the destruction of jobs next year will be no more intense, despite having taken a further deterioration in economic activity, but even be less. Economy is now believed that, with -0.6% in GDP growth, job losses will only (-0.2%) in 2013. Predicted in April, with GDP growing 0.2% in 2013, the biggest drop in jobs full time (-0.4%). In the absence of an explanation in the press conference, the change in the forecast points to an improvement in the estimation by the Government of the results of labor reform.
more informationThe risk premium than 600 points and marks a new highPublic spending grew by 9% in 2013 for interest and Social SecurityValencia became the first community in order to rescueBrussels stressed the "clear link" between the loan and the reforms required
The impact of the new recession (in 2009 the Spanish GDP fell as nearly 4%) at work is, if anything, lower in government forecasts that the international agencies and private experts. The European Commission and OECD believe that the unemployment rate will go to more, not less, in 2013, and exceed 25%. And some Spanish research services, such as International Financial Analysts, the Instituto Flores de Lemus or Savings Bank Foundation put the unemployment rate beyond 26%.
With this new macroeconomic framework, the Council of Ministers has approved the expenditure ceiling for next year. With this initiative, which is the first step to begin to prepare the accounts next year, the Executive meets the requirements of Brussels on deficit reduction. For next year, and for the first time also sets a spending ceiling for the communities.
After the final relaxation of the objectives of fiscal consolidation, Spain must reduce the deficit this year to 6.3% of GDP in 2013 to lower it to 4.5%. So he has a year longer than expected to bring the budget gap below the 3% limit imposed by the EU.
"The possibility of overcoming the crisis is real and not do anything is what has led us to the situation we have today," warned the Deputy Prime Minister, Soraya Saenz de Santamaria, referring to the battery lasts cuts.
"The new forecasts are in the field published by international organizations, are much like those you just supply the International Monetary Fund," said the minister. Indeed, the forecast of GDP is almost a carbon copy of the latest IMF forecast, which is only one tenth worst in 2013 (-0.6%). And is situated halfway between the OECD, more pessimistic (-0.8%) and the European Commission (-0.3%). Several research services and international private Spanish, however, raise the back by 2013 more than -1.5%.
Several studies raised the services back in 2013 beyond the -1.5%
The question that makes this review of the Government that both the IMF, like other international organizations and private experts, not included in its estimates the impact of huge budget adjustment recently approved by the Spanish. Montoro avoided the question at the press conference and claimed only that the budgets are developed "in order not to exacerbate the decline in economic activity." The problem is that most experts agree that measures such as the increase in VAT and the reduction of salaries of officials, which were approved last week, have an impact on consumption and GDP. And they reflected in future forecasts.
The impact of this downward revision of GDP in the labor market is paradoxical in light of the limited data provided by the finance minister in the press conference after the Council of Ministers. The Government updated its forecast for the unemployment rate, which had become outdated. He thus believes that the unemployment rate this year will beat their recorded history and will be located on average in 24.6%, when in April predicted an average of 24.3%. However, by 2013, the change is minimal, 24.2% to 24.3%, despite the drastic reduction of forecast GDP. And the forecast for 2014 (23.3%) and 2015 (21.8%) improved. Despite this, the Government assumes that remain above the level that was found when he came to power, which closed 2011 at 21.6%.
More striking still is the provision that has reported the Ministry of Economy at the Council of Ministers on the change in employment. Here, the Executive believes that the destruction of jobs next year will be no more intense, despite having taken a further deterioration in economic activity, but even be less. Economy is now believed that, with -0.6% in GDP growth, job losses will only (-0.2%) in 2013. Predicted in April, with GDP growing 0.2% in 2013, the biggest drop in jobs full time (-0.4%). In the absence of an explanation in the press conference, the change in the forecast points to an improvement in the estimation by the Government of the results of labor reform.
more informationThe risk premium than 600 points and marks a new highPublic spending grew by 9% in 2013 for interest and Social SecurityValencia became the first community in order to rescueBrussels stressed the "clear link" between the loan and the reforms required
The impact of the new recession (in 2009 the Spanish GDP fell as nearly 4%) at work is, if anything, lower in government forecasts that the international agencies and private experts. The European Commission and OECD believe that the unemployment rate will go to more, not less, in 2013, and exceed 25%. And some Spanish research services, such as International Financial Analysts, the Instituto Flores de Lemus or Savings Bank Foundation put the unemployment rate beyond 26%.
With this new macroeconomic framework, the Council of Ministers has approved the expenditure ceiling for next year. With this initiative, which is the first step to begin to prepare the accounts next year, the Executive meets the requirements of Brussels on deficit reduction. For next year, and for the first time also sets a spending ceiling for the communities.
After the final relaxation of the objectives of fiscal consolidation, Spain must reduce the deficit this year to 6.3% of GDP in 2013 to lower it to 4.5%. So he has a year longer than expected to bring the budget gap below the 3% limit imposed by the EU.
"The possibility of overcoming the crisis is real and not do anything is what has led us to the situation we have today," warned the Deputy Prime Minister, Soraya Saenz de Santamaria, referring to the battery lasts cuts.
政府は、2013年に予想される不況が少ない仕事の損失を拡張する
月に0.2％の上昇を予測した2013年に0.5％をドロップすると予想経済GDP
-1.5％でそれを置くために、10分の2で、2012年の経済見通しを改善する
24.6パーセントと24.3パーセントに今年金額の平均失業率は2013年に残さ
幹部は、それが電源に来たときに議会がより多くの失業で終了することを前提としてい
アレハンドロ·ボラニョスマドリード20 JUL 2012 - 午後04時27分CET
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