IMFは彼らの支出を緩和し、競争力を向上させるためにフランスに呼びかけ
IMF calls on France to moderate their spending and improve competitiveness
El FMI pide a Francia que modere su gasto y mejore la competitividad
El organismo cree que la recuperación llegará en el segundo semestre
Subraya el potencial de crecimiento de la tercera potencia europea y segunda del euro
El paro registrado alcanza un nuevo récord en Francia en abril
Miguel Mora Paris 4 JUN 2013 - 14:24 CET
IMF calls on France to moderate their spending and improve competitiveness
The agency believes that the recovery will come in the second half
Stresses the growth potential of the third European power and second euro
Registered unemployment reached a new record in France in April
Miguel Mora Paris 4 JUN 2013 - 14:24 CET
Liberals of Germany and the UK have spent months saying that France is the sick man of Europe. On Tuesday, three economists at the International Monetary Fund (IMF) responsible for monitoring the state of the economy have closed two weeks gala of "mission" in the country and have improved a bit this diagnosis. Their findings report encourages the government to continue to reform its socialist economy "to respond to the multiple and profound uncertainties" that crosses the second power of the euro, but believes that Paris can "slow the pace of consolidation, subject to efforts public expenditure restraint "and concludes that the recovery will begin in the second quarter of this year.
IMF economists have relativized to the press the extreme severity of illness, and in fact have denied that is near the tomb. Thus considered unlikely in view of the data and the social situation, the country is on the brink of a second French Revolution as just anticipate the renowned economist Jacques Attali in his new book. Asked about those blacks forecasts, the head of the mission, Edward Gardner, graphically explained that "the French Government knows that the country has, more than psychological problems, structural problems". He has greeted interventions in recent months by the Socialist government and held that François Hollande wants further reform. Gardner has said he has "a clear picture of the relative harmony between the social partners", and cited two positive: While domestic banks are recapitalized, but should do more for growth, and, above all, "companies French are not over-indebted and can go back, invest and create jobs, unlike what happens in other European countries. "
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After meeting for 15 days with members of the Government, the four leading bankers, employers, the majority union (the communist CGT) and various public and parliamentary elections, the Fund has issued a report mild and moderately pessimistic. In it, the IMF slightly lowered growth forecasts for this year and next. For 2013, believes the economy will contract two tenths (one more than expected in April), to rebound by 0.8% in 2014, one tenth less than in its previous forecast. And consider that after two negative quarters, the last of 2012 and the first of this year, "economic activity should begin to recover in the second half of 2013, driven by improved external conditions."
The IMF considers, like the Commission, that the fundamental problem of France is the "loss of external competitiveness," adding that it can only grow back if you develop some "inner engines": increase competition in professions and services, reduce labor market rigidities using the momentum of the reform approved work, and strengthen active labor market policies to reduce the duration of periods of unemployment, which is at maximum, and improve the employment rate among young people and older workers age.
More measures
Other concrete measures recommended by the report are: reduce the cost of salaries for public employees pension reform by a delay in the retirement age, reduce the cost of hiring young people through flexible contracts (Gardner frowns a possible youth minimum wage), and unemployment insurance reform.
In terms of accounting and the deficit, Paris will have to make further progress in fiscal consolidation "medium term" through the reduction of costs because "revenues are exhausted," IMF economists warn. "The recurrent use of fiscal measures to fill budget gaps has not only increased the tax burden to excessive levels, it also has undermined business confidence and household," says Gardner.
The Fund believes that France will end 2013 with a deficit of around 3% of GDP, while in 2014 that figure will drop something, and advised to keep spending increases around 0.3% from 2015 "until it reaches the structural budget target. " The Stability Programme submitted by France in Brussels plans to reach that goal in 2016, but economists of the Washington-based agency considered the GDP growth assumptions put forward by Paris "too optimistic".
The report, in any case, blames the anemic state of the European economy persistent clouds over France. "The main downside risks," he says, "are in poor growth prospects in Europe, linked to the restructuring of public and private balance sheets." The Fund also notes that the great improvements in the competitiveness of peripheral countries can affect the economy gala Paris if the government does not get the batteries. And ask for progress in promoting financial stability banking union.
Discount of payroll
The summary is that the challenge of France passes revive the competitiveness and growth through fiscal, financial and structural "put the emphasis on raising the productivity of human and capital resources, increasing competition, progress in consolidating tax steadily in structural terms and based on a "cost containment and a reduction in the public wage bill."
The institution welcomes government actions Hollande, but advised to seek new tools to reduce the effective cost of hiring young. And warns that the high "cost of labor remains a major obstacle to the lower end of the labor market, young people".
The document points out, however, that employment rates in France are still well below those of partner countries at both ends of the age distribution. According to Gardner, "Paris is negotiating these agreements and knows he must urgently find solutions. But only time will tell if you have taken good decisions. "
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