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経済学者のポール=クルグマン(Paul Krugman,USA,53)氏は、スペイン銀行危機やイタリア国債危機などの欧州経済·金融危機を克服するために欧州中央銀行のきちんとした解決(行動)を示唆、
“Si España no tiene éxito en esta crisis, el euro tampoco lo tendrá”
Paul Krugman pide una mayor intervención del BCE para solucionar la crisis europea
"If Spain does not succeed in this crisis, nor will the euro"
Paul Krugman calls for greater intervention by the ECB to solve the European crisis
See Paul Krugman's blog
Alicia Gonzalez Madrid 3 JUL 2012 - 00:00 CET
Paul Krugman calls for greater intervention by the ECB to solve the European crisis
See Paul Krugman's blog
Alicia Gonzalez Madrid 3 JUL 2012 - 00:00 CET
Physically, Paul Krugman (USA, 1953) has changed little over the past three years. But his speech has done so. A lot. No longer calls for wage cuts of 30% or expensive public spending plans, but asks the European Central Bank (ECB) to act. Their discipline and punctuality have not changed. Comes to promoting his new book and Fulfil this crisis! with infinite patience. Coffee in hand, though, that the meeting is held early in the morning.
Question. Imagine that I am a Spanish saver, what do I do with my money?
Response. My God! I will not be responsible for saving anyone. But there is a real possibility that the euro will break. The unthinkable is now possible. Obviously would not give specific advice, but it is a very complicated and could be that some people out of the value of their savings. I do not think we're talking about a catastrophic situation, but no good either.
P. How likely gives the breakdown of the euro?
R. I still think it is less likely that your salvation, but narrowly. I used to think that the probability was one against five, and now I think it is double, 40%, because the distance between what should be done to save the euro and that the policy has now on the table is still great.
P. Do you still see the possibility of a playpen in Spain?
The ECB should allow
a higher inflation target of 3%
R. That would be part of a breakup of the euro. I did not mean riding fuss when I said [in a blog post]. It's something that would apply to the introduction of the new currency. But it's not going to happen just like that.
P. Would you hit the criticism of the Spanish Government?
R. It is normal that a government does not want to cause panic an economist, I do not intend to either, but I do not want to be dishonest. Of course, a government will always say that this will never happen. It is one of the rules of devaluations, refuses until it happens. I am sure that the Government has no intention of doing anything about this and everyone wants to belong to the euro and save. But I also hope someone is making contingency plans. The situation is very difficult.
P. He said he sees little difference between the policies of Zapatero and Rajoy.
R. I would have done different things with a surplus in public accounts but not in a situation like the present. Seemed likely to get Rajoy and would solve everything, and the truth is that policy has not changed the previous government because both have little room to maneuver.
P. Do you think the bank bailout has requested Spain will be enough or will need it?
R. Spain needs a bailout of its banking sector and needs to be done well. What happened three weeks ago was a disaster, so that made things worse. The agreement of the recent European summit itself is more like a bailout for troubled banks, the risks are shared and are not made alone by the Spanish Government, but does not solve the problem. Nor do I believe that a sovereign bailout is the answer, just look what has happened in Greece or Ireland, where one sees glimmer of recovery. I do not even think there is enough resources for a bailout to the Greek in Spain. What Spain needs is a change in European macroeconomic policy, the ECB buying bonds to lower rates. Spain is not in a position to say "come to our rescue," but you need to change monetary policy.
P. Economic ¿too?
R. Basically monetary policy. The ECB is the only one with enough tools to act. Spain has the disadvantage of being too big to be rescued in the style of Portugal, but has the advantage that if Spain is not successful, the euro either. So the fate of Spain is the destination of the euro.
What Spain needs is the central bank buys bonds
P. Do the latest agreements achieved save the euro?
R. It was a better than the previous peak. The bank proposal makes sense and, to our knowledge, all other agreements seem reasonable. But mostly left to limit the focus of the EU to austerity. Although these steps are far from sufficient, are only about 5% of what needs to be done. Unless there are more steps, the euro will be saved.
P. Just presented a manifesto for economic common sense.
R. The idea is to do something to counter the austerity. Households have to reduce its debt and the Spanish Government can not launch a policy of incentives at this time. Germany could and should do so and the ECB should provide liquidity to both governments and the economy at large to cause an increase in inflation. The essential problem of the Spanish economy, banking, is that there is a hole through the bursting of the housing bubble and that has to compensate with lower trade deficit. It is not an easy strategy. Ireland has two and a half years using this strategy and it seems clear that it will not work.
P. Do any good to plan for growth in the EU?
R. It is a step in the right direction, although occupying only 1% of GDP. Perhaps one tenth to reduce the unemployment rate in the EU, but nothing more. Anyway, I do not think you can do much on the fiscal side, unlike in the U.S.. In Spain, the good fiscal performance before the crisis was largely due to the bubble, so now have to make a major adjustment to address the structural fiscal deficit, although perhaps not as fast. We do not know if that will work, but the only one bullet.
P. Should the ECB to raise its inflation target?
R. Clearly. In an ideal world should be at 4%, as suggested by the IMF's chief economist, Olivier Blanchard, but 3% is not bad. The current target of 2% is actually a roof, so the markets interpret the goal of stability around 1%, which is not acceptable. Now it is not possible a goal less than 3% over the next five years.
P. And extend your mandate?
R. It would be very useful, although not think it's possible. Five years ago you could argue whether inflation stable and acceptable performance of the real economy were the same thing, but now we know it. It is possible, thanks to continued declines in wages, have an extended period of stable prices in a depressed economy. So the ECB's sole mandate is very limited.
P. Does it put Europe at risk to global economy?
R. Without doubt, although no one is doing well, or emerging. United States only has better stage by comparison with Europe. My thesis is that there are two structural problems to be tackled: one is Europe, which has a common currency without a common government, and other, USA, where one of the two major parties is literally crazy. And that combination makes recovery very difficult.
P. You argued that there are increasing similarities to the 30's.
R. I think it is increasingly clear that Europe is very similar to that time and even some European economies are worse off in terms of GDP or unemployment than they were in the 30's. U.S. is virtually the same, Spain and Italy are substantially worse, too. Not so Germany, but that was a terrible time for that country. And the inability to respond effectively is very similar. The political scene is not as bad as the 30's, but we are seeing a rise of extremism, so the parallels are many.
P. Have we not learned any lessons?
R. I think we learned it was not a good idea to drop the banking system and have avoided the financial collapse of 1931 though, seeing what Europe is doing, it is difficult to be sure even of that. The rest is frightening. David Cameron's speeches or Angela Merkel are very similar to those of Herbert Hoover in 1932. So there we have learned nothing.
Question. Imagine that I am a Spanish saver, what do I do with my money?
Response. My God! I will not be responsible for saving anyone. But there is a real possibility that the euro will break. The unthinkable is now possible. Obviously would not give specific advice, but it is a very complicated and could be that some people out of the value of their savings. I do not think we're talking about a catastrophic situation, but no good either.
P. How likely gives the breakdown of the euro?
R. I still think it is less likely that your salvation, but narrowly. I used to think that the probability was one against five, and now I think it is double, 40%, because the distance between what should be done to save the euro and that the policy has now on the table is still great.
P. Do you still see the possibility of a playpen in Spain?
The ECB should allow
a higher inflation target of 3%
R. That would be part of a breakup of the euro. I did not mean riding fuss when I said [in a blog post]. It's something that would apply to the introduction of the new currency. But it's not going to happen just like that.
P. Would you hit the criticism of the Spanish Government?
R. It is normal that a government does not want to cause panic an economist, I do not intend to either, but I do not want to be dishonest. Of course, a government will always say that this will never happen. It is one of the rules of devaluations, refuses until it happens. I am sure that the Government has no intention of doing anything about this and everyone wants to belong to the euro and save. But I also hope someone is making contingency plans. The situation is very difficult.
P. He said he sees little difference between the policies of Zapatero and Rajoy.
R. I would have done different things with a surplus in public accounts but not in a situation like the present. Seemed likely to get Rajoy and would solve everything, and the truth is that policy has not changed the previous government because both have little room to maneuver.
P. Do you think the bank bailout has requested Spain will be enough or will need it?
R. Spain needs a bailout of its banking sector and needs to be done well. What happened three weeks ago was a disaster, so that made things worse. The agreement of the recent European summit itself is more like a bailout for troubled banks, the risks are shared and are not made alone by the Spanish Government, but does not solve the problem. Nor do I believe that a sovereign bailout is the answer, just look what has happened in Greece or Ireland, where one sees glimmer of recovery. I do not even think there is enough resources for a bailout to the Greek in Spain. What Spain needs is a change in European macroeconomic policy, the ECB buying bonds to lower rates. Spain is not in a position to say "come to our rescue," but you need to change monetary policy.
P. Economic ¿too?
R. Basically monetary policy. The ECB is the only one with enough tools to act. Spain has the disadvantage of being too big to be rescued in the style of Portugal, but has the advantage that if Spain is not successful, the euro either. So the fate of Spain is the destination of the euro.
What Spain needs is the central bank buys bonds
P. Do the latest agreements achieved save the euro?
R. It was a better than the previous peak. The bank proposal makes sense and, to our knowledge, all other agreements seem reasonable. But mostly left to limit the focus of the EU to austerity. Although these steps are far from sufficient, are only about 5% of what needs to be done. Unless there are more steps, the euro will be saved.
P. Just presented a manifesto for economic common sense.
R. The idea is to do something to counter the austerity. Households have to reduce its debt and the Spanish Government can not launch a policy of incentives at this time. Germany could and should do so and the ECB should provide liquidity to both governments and the economy at large to cause an increase in inflation. The essential problem of the Spanish economy, banking, is that there is a hole through the bursting of the housing bubble and that has to compensate with lower trade deficit. It is not an easy strategy. Ireland has two and a half years using this strategy and it seems clear that it will not work.
P. Do any good to plan for growth in the EU?
R. It is a step in the right direction, although occupying only 1% of GDP. Perhaps one tenth to reduce the unemployment rate in the EU, but nothing more. Anyway, I do not think you can do much on the fiscal side, unlike in the U.S.. In Spain, the good fiscal performance before the crisis was largely due to the bubble, so now have to make a major adjustment to address the structural fiscal deficit, although perhaps not as fast. We do not know if that will work, but the only one bullet.
P. Should the ECB to raise its inflation target?
R. Clearly. In an ideal world should be at 4%, as suggested by the IMF's chief economist, Olivier Blanchard, but 3% is not bad. The current target of 2% is actually a roof, so the markets interpret the goal of stability around 1%, which is not acceptable. Now it is not possible a goal less than 3% over the next five years.
P. And extend your mandate?
R. It would be very useful, although not think it's possible. Five years ago you could argue whether inflation stable and acceptable performance of the real economy were the same thing, but now we know it. It is possible, thanks to continued declines in wages, have an extended period of stable prices in a depressed economy. So the ECB's sole mandate is very limited.
P. Does it put Europe at risk to global economy?
R. Without doubt, although no one is doing well, or emerging. United States only has better stage by comparison with Europe. My thesis is that there are two structural problems to be tackled: one is Europe, which has a common currency without a common government, and other, USA, where one of the two major parties is literally crazy. And that combination makes recovery very difficult.
P. You argued that there are increasing similarities to the 30's.
R. I think it is increasingly clear that Europe is very similar to that time and even some European economies are worse off in terms of GDP or unemployment than they were in the 30's. U.S. is virtually the same, Spain and Italy are substantially worse, too. Not so Germany, but that was a terrible time for that country. And the inability to respond effectively is very similar. The political scene is not as bad as the 30's, but we are seeing a rise of extremism, so the parallels are many.
P. Have we not learned any lessons?
R. I think we learned it was not a good idea to drop the banking system and have avoided the financial collapse of 1931 though, seeing what Europe is doing, it is difficult to be sure even of that. The rest is frightening. David Cameron's speeches or Angela Merkel are very similar to those of Herbert Hoover in 1932. So there we have learned nothing.
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