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スペイン政府の650億0000'0000ユーロの財政赤字削減策は、スペインの経済不況を長引かせる
El recorte de 65.000 millones agravará la recesión hasta 2013
Rajoy admite que el declive económico persistirá el año que viene
Las medidas provocarán una devaluación fiscal para ganar competitividad
The cut of 65,000 million deepen the recession until 2013
Rajoy supports the economic downturn will persist next year
The measures will result in a fiscal devaluation to gain competitiveness
How it affects you the VAT hike in day to day?
Amanda Madrid Mars 11 JUL 2012 - 23:02 CET
Rajoy supports the economic downturn will persist next year
The measures will result in a fiscal devaluation to gain competitiveness
How it affects you the VAT hike in day to day?
Amanda Madrid Mars 11 JUL 2012 - 23:02 CET
"The Spanish can not choose whether to make sacrifices. We do not have that freedom. " There are days and speeches off a scent of posterity, with tickets to become a historic landmark. Spain is experiencing many of those days lately anniversary, but yesterday, with the Prime Minister admitted that there is no freedom, neither economically nor politically for the country, leaves no doubt. Mariano Rajoy announced the program of reforms and cuts more severe since at least the Stabilization Plan of 1959, a lot of cuts in public wages, the structure of administrations and tax increases that are intended to scrape 65,000 million. Forced by Europe, the Spanish banking rescue, Madrid promotes a series of measures to balance the public accounts at the cost of reneging on promises to the citizens and further aggravate the second recession in two years, with a fall in economic activity around 2%.
Rajoy admitted yesterday for the first time that the decline will continue in 2013. "For next year all the forecasts suggest that the recession will continue, although closer to 0%," he told Congress. Brussels has softened and twice the deficit reduction targets set for Spain as a result of the deterioration and the current goal is to reduce the gap between expenditure and revenue of 8.9% to GDP ratio that was in 2011, to 6 , 3% in 2012, to 4.5% in 2013 and 2.8% in 2014 (before the year was expected to do before). Those six percentage points of GDP target distance equivalent to end these 65,000 million that the Government hoped to achieve with the new plan.
But will the bills? "There are many elements yet to know the setting, is required to calculate the effect of a reduction of 30% of councilors of municipalities, for example, or the details of the reduction of unemployment benefit or pension reform," said Jose Ignacio Conde-Ruiz, deputy director of the Foundation for Applied Economic Research (FEDEA).
more informationReduction in unemployment benefitsElimination of the deduction for housingThe government cut pensionsRise of special environmental taxes
The increase in VAT from three points to the general rate (from 18% to 21%) and 2% for small (from 8% to 10%) can be an additional revenue of 4,500 to 5,000 million in a full fiscal year, based on the fall in consumption of 3% referred to in the State Budget, according to Juan José Rubio, Professor of Public Finance at the University of Castilla-La Mancha.
But "we must take into account the risks of a worsening economic environment, layoffs and drops in salaries will slow more consumption," he warns. In 2011, VAT revenue improved by 0.4% shy by increasing the rates of the previous year, in July 2010 General rose from 16% to 18% - and no recession, with economic growth of 0.7 % in the year.
"Clearly there will be an effect on consumption, but at the same time, if Spain wins credibility in capital markets and make the necessary structural reforms will lower the cost of capital, improve confidence and may encourage investment. The Government had no other option, because the deficit was going to 8%, one wonders why it was not presented a plan of this nature long before, "says Conde-Ruiz.
The government also announced a reduction in the social point of workers this year and another the next point. The combination of the increase in VAT and social contributions produce a kind of tax or internal devaluation to gain competitiveness of Spain, that is, that will lower the costs of the country, and exports, an engine that can drive growth, will strengthened against imports.
"It's no fun being president of a debtor nation without its own currency. Unlike the United States or United Kingdom, Spain has no easy options, "he noted yesterday laureate Paul Krugman in his blog at The New Yorks Times.
A lack of power to devalue the currency, the Spanish government raises the tax on all products consumed in Spain as it affects everything that is imported from outside and excludes exports, because they pay VAT. At the same time, lowering the prices are reduced business costs and improve competitiveness.
Rajoy admitted yesterday for the first time that the decline will continue in 2013. "For next year all the forecasts suggest that the recession will continue, although closer to 0%," he told Congress. Brussels has softened and twice the deficit reduction targets set for Spain as a result of the deterioration and the current goal is to reduce the gap between expenditure and revenue of 8.9% to GDP ratio that was in 2011, to 6 , 3% in 2012, to 4.5% in 2013 and 2.8% in 2014 (before the year was expected to do before). Those six percentage points of GDP target distance equivalent to end these 65,000 million that the Government hoped to achieve with the new plan.
But will the bills? "There are many elements yet to know the setting, is required to calculate the effect of a reduction of 30% of councilors of municipalities, for example, or the details of the reduction of unemployment benefit or pension reform," said Jose Ignacio Conde-Ruiz, deputy director of the Foundation for Applied Economic Research (FEDEA).
more informationReduction in unemployment benefitsElimination of the deduction for housingThe government cut pensionsRise of special environmental taxes
The increase in VAT from three points to the general rate (from 18% to 21%) and 2% for small (from 8% to 10%) can be an additional revenue of 4,500 to 5,000 million in a full fiscal year, based on the fall in consumption of 3% referred to in the State Budget, according to Juan José Rubio, Professor of Public Finance at the University of Castilla-La Mancha.
But "we must take into account the risks of a worsening economic environment, layoffs and drops in salaries will slow more consumption," he warns. In 2011, VAT revenue improved by 0.4% shy by increasing the rates of the previous year, in July 2010 General rose from 16% to 18% - and no recession, with economic growth of 0.7 % in the year.
"Clearly there will be an effect on consumption, but at the same time, if Spain wins credibility in capital markets and make the necessary structural reforms will lower the cost of capital, improve confidence and may encourage investment. The Government had no other option, because the deficit was going to 8%, one wonders why it was not presented a plan of this nature long before, "says Conde-Ruiz.
The government also announced a reduction in the social point of workers this year and another the next point. The combination of the increase in VAT and social contributions produce a kind of tax or internal devaluation to gain competitiveness of Spain, that is, that will lower the costs of the country, and exports, an engine that can drive growth, will strengthened against imports.
"It's no fun being president of a debtor nation without its own currency. Unlike the United States or United Kingdom, Spain has no easy options, "he noted yesterday laureate Paul Krugman in his blog at The New Yorks Times.
A lack of power to devalue the currency, the Spanish government raises the tax on all products consumed in Spain as it affects everything that is imported from outside and excludes exports, because they pay VAT. At the same time, lowering the prices are reduced business costs and improve competitiveness.
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