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スペインの欧州金融安定基金の融資による銀行救済の遅滞、スペイン国債を欧州中央銀行が買わない無策、スペインの地方政府の財政破綻、スペイン国家予算の流動資金を異常高値の金利で市場で国債で確保異常困難(限界に近い)、2012年8月に国債満期返済不可能で、スペイン国家は破綻は近い、間もなく!?
Los expertos advierten que el rescate total de España es cada vez más probable
Influyentes economistas creen que la intervención integral de la economía española está más cerca
Con la prima de riesgo por encima de los 600 puntos básicos, la apuesta de los mercados es clara
Bruselas pide tiempo para desarrollar el rescate de la banca y los nuevos recortes
Claudi Pérez Bruselas22 JUL 2012 - 01:26 CET
Experts warn that the full redemption of Spain is increasingly likely
Influential economists believe that the comprehensive intervention of the Spanish economy is closer
With the risk premium above the 600 basis points, the bet is a clear market
Brussels asks for time to develop the banking bailout and new cuts
Claudi Perez Brussels 22 JUL 2012 - 01:26 CET
Influential economists believe that the comprehensive intervention of the Spanish economy is closer
With the risk premium above the 600 basis points, the bet is a clear market
Brussels asks for time to develop the banking bailout and new cuts
Claudi Perez Brussels 22 JUL 2012 - 01:26 CET
"The financial credibility of Spain is close to zero. Fiscal credibility is zero. The political credibility is zero. Investors have been sentenced to Spain. The Government has wasted no time in recent months has squandered the credit granting him an absolute majority, has lost some confidence in European institutions and the whole market with a succession of errors, many of them for a bad communication strategy is correct now without success. Too late? Can not say such things in public, but without a change of attitude are you doomed to a full recovery. "
Several quotes like that, without the possibility of attributing to the sensitivity of the situation, leaving half a dozen meetings in Brussels with European sources, diplomats, officials of various ranks and various institutions, in the last week, the rescue of the banking, partial intervention that calmed the markets, leaving Spain a few moves from checkmate in many ways would be a complete rescue.
Spain is in an extreme situation, the whole of Europe is about the size of the Spanish economy and its poisonous towing capacity. Neither recortazo 65,000 million and the decision of the Eurogroup to support the bank bailout have avoided the bump in the stock market, the nth maximum risk premium, the realization that no one trusts Spain, immersed in a recession that will last until 2014. To pay the debts have to grow: that's what most concerns the famous markets. This and every novelty is more worrisome than the previous one, with several autonomies about to order the rescue of a State which in turn has been rescued. Abuse of anonymous calling each and every one of the senior officials consulted, it is somewhat understandable: the European partners just throw a lifeline of up to 100,000 million to the bank. But the reality is so fast that half Brussels and wonders if something more is needed.
Senior European officials warned that the credibility of Spain is under minimum
"The market sensed a second save, even a default, and you're thinking how to make money with it. Investors have gone never to return, at least for a while. Are we to a complete audit? To follow that route, possibly yes. But Spain, if you drag to Italy, is a major problem: anybody with half a brain can not stop thinking about the serious consequences this would bring, "says a senior source in Europe, which clings to the possibility of a magic wand last hour, the ECB, which did not just appear.
The Community authorities will ask for time to see how the bank rescue, how to advance reforms, how to apply the Government with scissors. But time is short. Given the institutional impasse, this newspaper asked half a dozen top experts. Economists with ability to influence political coteries. The conclusion is the same: the possibility of a full redemption of Spain is growing.
"I see little chance that Spain is free," says Ken Rogoff, a Harvard professor and head of the IMF execonomista. "Spain will continue with serious growth problems and stop until there is a massive deleveraging. This can be achieved with painful structural reforms, especially in the labor market. Also with a sustained inflation in countries like Germany, which can be ruled out given the degree of obsession with the ECB. And take away significant restructuring and debt, the best approach but politically the most difficult. Most likely, this is made more than a decade of anemic growth and high unemployment, combined to a greater or lesser extent with the previous recipes, "says Rogoff, who predicts a sort of social depression (if it is not as friction unemployment 25%).
"It is unlikely that Spain is full redemption free," predicts Kenneth Rogoff
The Nobel Joe Stiglitz spoke a few days ago something. But he explained that the least painful way to make this pill is back off in the deficit targets. "Germany is tightening fiscal discipline rather than doing something to promote growth. We have seen in three cases [Greece, Portugal and Ireland] that's counterproductive. In the Spanish case, the government bailout of banks and the government rescued banks is also something that is neither working nor functional, "he reiterated to Reuters. Wolfgang Münchau, who heads the think tank Eurointelligence Brussels, says the austerity measures at the trough "are really crazy, prolong and deepen the recession even raise the deficit contractionary effect. It is amazing that governments keep repeating mistakes made decades ago. " With these rods, there is little room: "Spain is no longer fully sovereign, because the government can no longer funded. Yes, I expect a complete audit, "says Martin Wolf resounding, economic commentator for the Financial Times header.
From California and after a short stay in Spain and Italy in recent weeks, economic historian Barry Eichengreen is extremely hard with both the Government and with European institutions. "The new tax package, like its predecessors, it will not work. And the injection of money from the bailout funds in European banks will not suffice. They grow on a daily basis the chances that Spain has to request intervention by the troika in the making. This is attributable in part to his own mistakes, but especially the resounding failure of the European crisis ", he criticizes. James K. Galbraith, son of the legendary John K. Galbraith, notes that the European leadership" is a priority to preserve the system banking and the euro, as if that were an end in itself, rather than promote growth to give a chance for the millions of unemployed Spanish. "" To change that reality, the Government of Spain should be bold and insightful. ¿ You have a government like that? "he asks.
De Grawe: "In August we could see what seemed unthinkable to us now"
Paul De Grauwe, a researcher at the London School of Economics, predicts a complete audit in the fall, with maturities of 27,000 billion the Treasury, which has cushion to endure until then to refinance. "If markets have become a fit of panic things can precipitate and in August we could see what until recently seemed unthinkable," he says. "Crises sometimes take a long time in coming, but now and then rush in one night, Europe is doing everything in its power to advance the clock. With the imposition of harsh repeat the mistakes of Greece and company. Berlin with dogmatism and stubbornness that this is a crisis of good guys (the North) and bad guys (the South), has planted a dangerous seed: Germany, France, Belgium are funded even cheaper now than at the beginning of the crisis. Even negative types. The same market that made blunders in the past inflicts a punishment disproportionate to Spain and Italy while the ECB continues to stand by. "
"This is a war," said a few days ago the Italian Prime Minister Mario Monti. De Grauwe also closed his speech with a reference to war: "Before the world wars, nobody thought that ultimately enable countries to make certain decisions which proved very serious. Now the cascade of errors can lead to another type of conflict. Spain is a huge economy. Italy is even more, and is in serious danger. There is still a chance of stopping a fracture of the euro with unforeseeable consequences: perhaps a depression. But not in Brussels or in Berlin seems to have a sense of urgency as the one in Washington. The most dangerous thing is that Europe is getting into a trap rescued obliges countries to undergo grueling remedies, and in return the citizens do not even foresee a slight improvement. That can only lead to prolonged suffering disappointment, disaffection, "ends.
European leaders know they face a chess board with two likely scenarios. One of the outputs of the alley is to do more for Greece, the crisis will come back for that side sooner rather than later, and set the appropriate umbrella to protect Spain and Italy: more solidarity, equivalent to more Europe (political union , Union Bank), because nobody, and least of all Germany, will give aid without extreme control. The other direction, more risky, is to allow the exit of Greece and reconsider which countries should join the euro. Anything is possible at this point. But only when the tide reaches France and Germany, through a recession or a banking crisis, which route may be preferred to Europe, determined to use the crisis as a method of government.
Several quotes like that, without the possibility of attributing to the sensitivity of the situation, leaving half a dozen meetings in Brussels with European sources, diplomats, officials of various ranks and various institutions, in the last week, the rescue of the banking, partial intervention that calmed the markets, leaving Spain a few moves from checkmate in many ways would be a complete rescue.
Spain is in an extreme situation, the whole of Europe is about the size of the Spanish economy and its poisonous towing capacity. Neither recortazo 65,000 million and the decision of the Eurogroup to support the bank bailout have avoided the bump in the stock market, the nth maximum risk premium, the realization that no one trusts Spain, immersed in a recession that will last until 2014. To pay the debts have to grow: that's what most concerns the famous markets. This and every novelty is more worrisome than the previous one, with several autonomies about to order the rescue of a State which in turn has been rescued. Abuse of anonymous calling each and every one of the senior officials consulted, it is somewhat understandable: the European partners just throw a lifeline of up to 100,000 million to the bank. But the reality is so fast that half Brussels and wonders if something more is needed.
Senior European officials warned that the credibility of Spain is under minimum
"The market sensed a second save, even a default, and you're thinking how to make money with it. Investors have gone never to return, at least for a while. Are we to a complete audit? To follow that route, possibly yes. But Spain, if you drag to Italy, is a major problem: anybody with half a brain can not stop thinking about the serious consequences this would bring, "says a senior source in Europe, which clings to the possibility of a magic wand last hour, the ECB, which did not just appear.
The Community authorities will ask for time to see how the bank rescue, how to advance reforms, how to apply the Government with scissors. But time is short. Given the institutional impasse, this newspaper asked half a dozen top experts. Economists with ability to influence political coteries. The conclusion is the same: the possibility of a full redemption of Spain is growing.
"I see little chance that Spain is free," says Ken Rogoff, a Harvard professor and head of the IMF execonomista. "Spain will continue with serious growth problems and stop until there is a massive deleveraging. This can be achieved with painful structural reforms, especially in the labor market. Also with a sustained inflation in countries like Germany, which can be ruled out given the degree of obsession with the ECB. And take away significant restructuring and debt, the best approach but politically the most difficult. Most likely, this is made more than a decade of anemic growth and high unemployment, combined to a greater or lesser extent with the previous recipes, "says Rogoff, who predicts a sort of social depression (if it is not as friction unemployment 25%).
"It is unlikely that Spain is full redemption free," predicts Kenneth Rogoff
The Nobel Joe Stiglitz spoke a few days ago something. But he explained that the least painful way to make this pill is back off in the deficit targets. "Germany is tightening fiscal discipline rather than doing something to promote growth. We have seen in three cases [Greece, Portugal and Ireland] that's counterproductive. In the Spanish case, the government bailout of banks and the government rescued banks is also something that is neither working nor functional, "he reiterated to Reuters. Wolfgang Münchau, who heads the think tank Eurointelligence Brussels, says the austerity measures at the trough "are really crazy, prolong and deepen the recession even raise the deficit contractionary effect. It is amazing that governments keep repeating mistakes made decades ago. " With these rods, there is little room: "Spain is no longer fully sovereign, because the government can no longer funded. Yes, I expect a complete audit, "says Martin Wolf resounding, economic commentator for the Financial Times header.
From California and after a short stay in Spain and Italy in recent weeks, economic historian Barry Eichengreen is extremely hard with both the Government and with European institutions. "The new tax package, like its predecessors, it will not work. And the injection of money from the bailout funds in European banks will not suffice. They grow on a daily basis the chances that Spain has to request intervention by the troika in the making. This is attributable in part to his own mistakes, but especially the resounding failure of the European crisis ", he criticizes. James K. Galbraith, son of the legendary John K. Galbraith, notes that the European leadership" is a priority to preserve the system banking and the euro, as if that were an end in itself, rather than promote growth to give a chance for the millions of unemployed Spanish. "" To change that reality, the Government of Spain should be bold and insightful. ¿ You have a government like that? "he asks.
De Grawe: "In August we could see what seemed unthinkable to us now"
Paul De Grauwe, a researcher at the London School of Economics, predicts a complete audit in the fall, with maturities of 27,000 billion the Treasury, which has cushion to endure until then to refinance. "If markets have become a fit of panic things can precipitate and in August we could see what until recently seemed unthinkable," he says. "Crises sometimes take a long time in coming, but now and then rush in one night, Europe is doing everything in its power to advance the clock. With the imposition of harsh repeat the mistakes of Greece and company. Berlin with dogmatism and stubbornness that this is a crisis of good guys (the North) and bad guys (the South), has planted a dangerous seed: Germany, France, Belgium are funded even cheaper now than at the beginning of the crisis. Even negative types. The same market that made blunders in the past inflicts a punishment disproportionate to Spain and Italy while the ECB continues to stand by. "
"This is a war," said a few days ago the Italian Prime Minister Mario Monti. De Grauwe also closed his speech with a reference to war: "Before the world wars, nobody thought that ultimately enable countries to make certain decisions which proved very serious. Now the cascade of errors can lead to another type of conflict. Spain is a huge economy. Italy is even more, and is in serious danger. There is still a chance of stopping a fracture of the euro with unforeseeable consequences: perhaps a depression. But not in Brussels or in Berlin seems to have a sense of urgency as the one in Washington. The most dangerous thing is that Europe is getting into a trap rescued obliges countries to undergo grueling remedies, and in return the citizens do not even foresee a slight improvement. That can only lead to prolonged suffering disappointment, disaffection, "ends.
European leaders know they face a chess board with two likely scenarios. One of the outputs of the alley is to do more for Greece, the crisis will come back for that side sooner rather than later, and set the appropriate umbrella to protect Spain and Italy: more solidarity, equivalent to more Europe (political union , Union Bank), because nobody, and least of all Germany, will give aid without extreme control. The other direction, more risky, is to allow the exit of Greece and reconsider which countries should join the euro. Anything is possible at this point. But only when the tide reaches France and Germany, through a recession or a banking crisis, which route may be preferred to Europe, determined to use the crisis as a method of government.
専門家は、スペインの完全な償還がますます可能性があることを警告する
影響力のあるエコノミストは、スペイン経済の包括的な介入が近いと信じている
600ベーシス·ポイント上のリスクプレミアムで、ベットは明確な市場です。
ブリュッセルは、銀行の救済と新たなカットを開発する時間を求める
Claudiペレスブリュッセル22 JUL 2012 - 1時26分CET
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