スペインの国立統計院:INE(Instituto Nacional de Estadistica)によると、2012年の小売業は、600万0000人の26'2%の失業率、付加価値税の18%から21%への値上げ、実質賃金(実質購買力)の引き下げなどにより、6'8%の販売減少、下落。
La agonía del comercio
El aumento del paro, la caída de la renta disponible y la escasez de crédito frenan el consumo
Amanda Mars 3 FEB 2013 - 00:01 CET
The agony of trade
Rising unemployment, falling disposable income and the credit crunch discourages consumption
Amanda Mars 3 FEB 2013 - 00:01 CET
The Ruiz endure as boars in his shoe shop Bravo Murillo Street in Madrid. A discount price, guerrilla-or more precisely, of second recession in four years, the third generation of the family is liquidating its athletic shoes to balance the books. "We are taking the genre sometimes at cost or even at a loss, if you think about the increase in VAT, because we need to address liquidity payments," said Maria Luisa Ruiz in his establishment. The business, previously located some distance portals, born a century ago and has already survived several crises. For Maria Luisa, "the nineties was very hard, but soon began to see the output, and now, sales are down over 50% since the beginning".
It has been a sad year for trade, the fifth with the register in waning phase. Falling sales of 2012, of 6.8%, has resulted in the sharpest crisis so far, according to data made public this week, the National Statistics Institute (INE), coinciding with the return of Spain in the recession, record unemployment rate of 26%, wage cuts and the VAT rise. As icing, specific fears (job loss) and macroeconomic (the ghost rescue Spain and its uncertain consequences).
Here's how the vicious cycle of a consumer economy: the less money goes into a house, the less you spend, and the less you buy, worse for business. So then choose to eliminate these jobs, in some cases, lower wages in other, and also cut investments. So many workers see their incomes fall and buy less, and so on. The Ruiz, with sales down for years, also adjusted the belt. "If we do not sell, we buy and sell anyone," said the trader Madrid. And prices in Spain have not diminished as they have income.
The Spanish retreated to organize more parties at home and less at restaurants, low cost products and discount stores of the firms have imposed their law, and considered superfluous (eg, change of car without strictly necessary ) hardly appears on the shopping list.
It was the worst December for retail sales in 20 years
Traders do not see the bottom. His employer, the Spanish Confederation of Commerce (SCC), which comprises mainly small and medium enterprises, said this week that its members have lived in the worst December sales in the last 20 years. "We sold less than the previous year, but more than this. This phrase is poised to be eight years and the trouble is that we do not know how we will resist "complains Manuel García-Izquierdo, president of the CEC. Since 2008, retail trade lost 40,000 companies and 103,890 self-employed, according to the organization. The Christmas season has not helped this time. "We noticed that perfectly Christmas bonus that officials have stopped charging and would dedicate to the purchase of gifts," he continues. "It also happens that many people, instead of buying things, has given bonuses to theirs and they have not spent in the stores."
If you look at constant prices, that is, discounting the effect of inflation, the crisis has struck down 10 percentage points in private consumption, which reached its zenith in the fourth quarter of that golden 2007. "There is a part of the correction in consumption was not healthy for the high level of debt that had occurred years earlier and that families could not refinance, but now the drop in demand and recession feeds are not done yet" Angel explains Laborda, director Funcas juncture, the foundation of economic analysis of the savings banks.
Corrected for inflation, in 2012 consumption dropped by 1.9%, compared with 1% in the previous which contracted. In the retail sector is no save, but different degrees of decline reflect priorities: food sales have dropped an average of 2.5%, while personal equipment down 7% and 10% household . And these data exclude spending on services such as leisure, one of the first items that households cut in full war economy.
Consumption has changed and in the future will be different from that in which rode the Spanish economy before the outbreak property and financial, because some particularities are here to stay. When the crisis ends, there is some consumption, many economists and experts believe it will never return. One is Josep Oliver, professor of applied economics at the Autonomous University of Barcelona, who warns of the effect of some structural measures: "We'll see what happens with the consumption of families, went out of this crisis with a more flexible labor market, but also more unstable, which creates more uncertainty in the people, and with a low public sector [pensions and other benefits of minor], so there is a structural part of change. " Oliver does not question the need for the reforms, but notes that "in any case are not neutral, have consequences." "I tell my students that their pensions will be lower than those of their parents, so what will be your reaction? Save more for the future makes sense, "he adds.
There is also a fundamental demographic effect analysis, in the opinion of Professor Oliver, is that the rate of creation of new households will be stopped for reasons beyond the economic cycle: by 1997, approximately usual in Spain was a creation of 150,000 or 170,000 annual family, but since the mid-nineties, with the maturity of the baby boomers call (the population explosion of the sixties and seventies) and the wave of migration, the cruise speed jumped to between 400.00 and 450.000 new families per year, he says. "The cessation of these effects, the trend is reversed, and unless you have another clash immigration, demand will not grow much. The projections for 2022 imply that the age group 16 to 30 years will be reduced by 20%, "says Oliver.
The price has gained ground in this crisis to any other criteria when deciding on a purchase, which largely explains the rise of low-cost business, especially food, to those chains of discount supermarkets. Establishments of low prices and strong brands such as Mercadona, have gone from a market share of 22.2% in 2004 to close 2012 with 32% of the pie, according to data from the consulting firm Kantar Wordpanel while hypermarkets have lost ground from 17% to 14.6% and 23.6% supermarkets to 21.7% in the same period. And the market share of private labels in food and drug, among others, has increased from 22.3% to 33%. These store brands still appear to have growth path, because the number was increased by two points.
The price has gained ground when it comes to deciding what to buy and where, which explains the growth of low-cost models
These trends have also been seen in the balance of INE. Large retail chains, Mercadona, Dia or Zara, for example, are best saved the furniture in 2012, with an annual decline of 4.4%, while supermarkets have lost 12.5% in sales , small chains and 13.8% unilocalizadas companies, ie individual stores or neighborhood, 11.6%.
They are the same figures that would probably Iñaki, 26, from the counter of a haberdashery with tradition, enduring decades Wonders market district of Cuatro Caminos in Madrid. His parents, who have another bouquet shop in Villaverde, cheered last December to reopen the trade wearing a closed time. Yarns, trimmings, gowns, girdles, vests wool and amid a colossal crisis. "It's going rather badly, we just to cover expenses and return on investment. Overall sales are down a lot, but it is enduring. This business is good because there is very little as expected and the neighborhood, "said the young man, who left his job as a delivery a few months ago because the accounts would not come.
The family business has been particularly bad in this crisis, but the shoe of Ruiz remains in the gap, viéndoselas competition with supermarkets and cheap Asian footwear production. And very specialized establishments, with a very defined niche market, have more opportunities. He also has done well to repair business because consumers are choosing to try to save many products formerly directly replaced by new ones.
Belén Barreiro sociologist, founder of social research how myword, agrees that "there are a number of attitudes that will survive the crisis-related business called low cost (low cost) and will come out strengthened by buying luxury items, but much more aware. " In addition, "business models as the outlet (fashion stores usually selected firms other notable seasonal discounts) will follow."
So counterweights work from home economics during the economic boom between 2004 and 2008, household consumption was growing above disposable income at the cost of credit and reduce the savings rate, which was slightly above 10%. The confidence in the Spanish economy was such that there was concern about having the full piggy bank, but the sharp drop in late 2008 and 2009 caused a slowdown of the same caliber and correction fattened spending precisely the savings rate in a recession, to a rate of 17.8%. It is the grace of fear, caution, all those psychological factors that drive the economy. The problem with this second recession is that, although consumption has slowed compared to previous years, gross disposable income has dropped somewhat (2.3% in 2012, according to estimates Funcas) does not give of themselves to the running costs and the savings rate has been at a meager 8.4%.
Falling wages sales even worse, a vicious circle that the resumption of credit could break
The employer's own retail, Anged, signed this week with unions a collective agreement which, among other measures, lowering their wages and stop paying extra for working Sundays or holidays. The staff of the sector affected by the agreement, some 230,000 employees work 26 hours a year in salary frozen until at least 2016, implying a 1.4% fall practice. In addition, payment of Sundays is replaced by a complement of between 350 and 500 euros for those employees who have worked in 2012's festive enough to have claimed more than 350 euros. If billing is recovered to the levels of 2010, the rise would be very similar to the reduction suffered after signing the agreement with a ceiling of 1.5%.
These workers have lost spending power in the same facilities for working, and so feeds the cycle. Sources Anged, which groups 17 major companies such as El Corte Inglés, Ikea or Carrefour, responds that "the agreement that has been signed is that which allowed maintaining employment, because labor costs could not keep up while turnover was down."
Breaking the vicious cycle can come from improving financial markets. "The problem with this crisis, unlike 1991, is that there is also a financial crisis that has dried up credit and has been basically what caused the second recession," said Angel Laborda. Credit to households spent more than two years down. In the third quarter was down 4% from the same period of 2011, to be on 843 945 000, which was returning to a level of six years ago.
It consumes less than that produced by all Spanish companies, but also what comes from outside, especially the latter. There is a positive macroeconomic derived in this: exports, despite the ups and downs, have endured the kind in recent years and imports are down so much, about 19% the volume since the crisis began-that the trade deficit just dropped in November to 776 million euros, one of the lowest levels of the statistical series, which starts in 1990.
The improvement of this indicator was possible even though in the final stretch of the year contracted sales abroad. This trend, in 2011, allowed Spain to achieve the first trade surplus in history with the euro area countries. And last year, with the recovery of foreign capital inflows, the current account balance Spanish (the balance between transactions in goods, services and transfers to the rest of the world) achieved the highest surplus in 30 years, from 1.777 million .
A further complication of this crisis over other is that it is the first with a massive destruction of public employment. And 2013 is an uncertainty, because the crisis will continue and, behind it, a post-crisis scenario very different from that golden 2007.
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