2013年02月03日日曜日晴れ17:08最低気温;5ºー7ºc最高気温;13ºー15ºc、Barcelona
スペインの銀行は、再編合理化を進め、不良債権(貸し倒れ)の引き当てとしての準備金に400億0000'0000ユーロを充て、資本増強して、2013年はよりましな年になるかな？
La banca deja atrás su ‘annus horribilis’
Las entidades dan por finalizada su reestructuración y el saneamiento del ladrillo aunque pero el paro y la recesión se dejarán notar aún en sus balances
Alejandro Bolaños Madrid 2 FEB 2013 - 18:58 CET
The dealer leaves behind his 'annus horribilis'
Given by entities after their restructuring and sanitation brick though but unemployment and the recession will be felt even in their balance
Alejandro Bolaños Madrid 2 FEB 2013 - 18:58 CET
It's not easy to tell if last year is the worst of the crisis. But Spanish banks no debate, the year just closed has been the black in recent history, an annus horribilis in the making. The sector now holds the first signs of improvement in financial conditions, the reorganization has allowed brick shed weight, to address the journey of recovery. In the presentation of results of large Spanish banks, this week, a single message: "2013 will be better than what we left behind" (Isidro Faine, chairman of CaixaBank); "going in the right direction" (Francisco Gonzalez, BBVA Chairman). "We are close to recovery" (Emilio Botin, chairman of Santander). "The worst of the crisis has passed" (Angel Ron, president of Banco Popular).
The presidents of major banks agree that 2013 will be better
Indeed, the results of the big banks, which have accrued about 40,000 million against possible losses (more than half are brick), following the guidelines set by the Ministry of Economy, attest to a disastrous year. The Popular, conceded losses (2,461,000) for the first time in its history. Overall, the net benefit of the six major listed companies in 2012 only reached 1.856 million, up 81% from the previous year. Without knowing the outcome of the three large nationalized entities (Bankia, Banco CatalunyaCaixa and NCG) is low risk (Bankia has estimated only lose 19,000 million) predict that Spanish banks closed in the red for the first time in decades.
2012 has been the year that the industry required a bailout of the Eurogroup to ensure the solvency of a dozen entities, also captured a third of a billion euros to the European Central Bank lent to three years to prevent the collapse of the euro; was the year in which it launched the biggest job cuts in banking with democracy (it lost more than 55,000 jobs). He was also the year in which erupted several court cases for corruption in the management of old boxes. And when it began to be obvious that the aid will cost to taxpayers billionaire: Finance admitted in September that believes and very difficult to recover nearly 17,000 million, potential losses to swell the deficit. So far, 6,000 million (Cajasur and Banco de Valencia) already gone.
"The worst is over, has been a year of brutal endowments," says Cano
However, large companies insist on turning to optimism. And makes arguments: the announcement that the ECB will support purchase of public debt with future requests rescue has eased the pressure on the Spanish risk premium. Improved financial conditions that has allowed several Spanish banks issue debt directly to investors. As icing, at the first opportunity they have had, Spanish banks have anticipated the ECB the return of 44,000 million three-year loans granted in late 2011.
In addition, Spanish banks argued that the vast majority of the adjustment, it has gone from fifty to just a dozen entities-is made, that the allocations to cover the loss of value of loans that may be outstanding and will not be as intense. And more toxic than brick has been confined in the bad bank.
Other experts warn that unemployment will trigger the default
"In results, we understand that, yes, the worst is over, 2012 has been a year of brutal endowments," agrees David Cano, International Financial Analyst. "And with the rescue and the bad bank has been absolutely clear any solvency problem," he adds, "Another thing is liquidity."
Joaquin Maudos, professor at the University of Valencia, remember that despite these early returns, "Spanish banks still receive 30% of the Eurosystem, when size amounts to just 12% of the euro area". On the opening of markets for Spanish banks, Institute investigator Valencian Economic Research (IVIE) recommends caution. "It is great that investors have come to some debt issues, but there are occasional, paid very high prices," says Maudos, who stresses that the level of Spanish risk premium, is still very high, about 350 basis points. "Rule of thumb, that entities come to market for massively funded, fair and reasonable costs are far from overcome," he concludes.
Maudos Professor says that the bailout is the only guarantee
The banking crisis continues to fishtail, sometimes violently, in Europe. Holland has just nationalized its fourth bank. The speculative investment losses MontePaschi Italian election campaign focus. "I do not think that there are more negative surprises with Spanish banks," says Mora, "but the economic downturn is a clear risk to the entire system, especially through mortgage exposure and loans to SMEs". Matches Intermoney chief economist Jose Carlos Diez: "The traditional banking business will continue to deteriorate, the recession will become toxic assets many loans to families and businesses."
The default rate is now at 11.4% of the loans. "Exceed 12%," predicts Maudos. "The margins are not going well-insists-Díez Most mortgages were given to the Euribor (now at 0.575%) and little else. But the bank is not funded in the Euribor market, pay more, "insists Díez, which relates back to the ECB loans by large banks with deposits of nationalized banks.
"The pessimistic scenario with which they were tested for resistance to Spanish banks started from an unemployment rate of 27%, this year it is not a scenario will be reality," said chief economist Intermoney. "If there is something that is always true is that the mortgage delinquency rate varies if the unemployment rate varies, and that will happen in 2013," says Professor Maudos, who recalls that this rate is still low (less than 3% ) but affects a portfolio of 600,000 million.
For SMEs, things will not improve in the short term. "In the last survey of the ECB, only 4% of Spanish SMEs said they had gotten better financing terms in the last six months, over 70% claimed they had gotten worse," says the researcher Ivie.
The Spanish economy started the crisis with high external financial dependence. And international investors have five years rationing resources. "No choice but to reduce debt, but this is like cutting the deficit, if done too quickly can be very damaging. And credit at rates falls and dangerous, "warns Maudos. Since 2009, more than 10% loan to companies and households has vanished, and in recent months, the decline is much more pronounced.
"The important questions are you going to have credit? Will there be jobs? The answer is: so far, there is nothing of that, "Tierce David Cano. For Jose Carlos Diez, "we need to restructure the mortgage debt of the most troubled families, the state and the banks should consider taking write-offs, as in the U.S.".
"We have to cut this Gordian knot between credit, unemployment and recession, but the only way I see to ensure widespread and persistent improvement in financial conditions is to ask the rescue to Europe," concludes Maudos.
0 件のコメント:
コメントを投稿