アメリカ合衆国の2012年7月ー9月の経済成長率は3'1%だったのに2012年10月ー12月は0'1%に減速、2011年の経済成長率は1'8%で、2012年は2'2%。
EE UU sufre una inesperada contracción en el cuarto trimestre de 2012
La economía estadounidense echa el freno de golpe tras crecer un 3,1% en el tercer trimestre
El huracán Sandy, la incertidumbre fiscal y el recorte del gasto militar explican la caída
Pese al dato negativo de cierre de año, el PIB avanza un 2,2% en todo el ejercicio
Sandro Pozzi Nueva York 30 ENE 2013 - 20:32 CET
U.S. suffers an unexpected contraction in the fourth quarter of 2012
The U.S. economy hit the brake check after growing 3.1% in the third quarter
Hurricane Sandy, fiscal uncertainty and military spending cuts explain the fall
Despite the negative data closing year, GDP advanced 2.2% in the full year
New York Sandro Pozzi 30 ENE 2013 - 20:32 CET
Economic growth in the U.S. slowed suddenly in the fourth quarter, to the point of being a contraction of 0.1% compared to 3.1% growth in GDP in the third. Wall Street expected a slowdown due to the impact of the hurricane on the East Coast Sandy U.S. military spending cuts and the uncertainty created by the tax showdown in Congress. But what no one anticipated was the step back, the first in three years. The Federal Reserve decided to keep the stimuli.
It is the first negative GDP data from the last recession. For the full year, growth remains at 2.2% vs. 1.8% given for 2011. It is in any case the first reading of the indicator, so it is subject to modifications that can go both ways. In any case, the data published differs with growth of 1% market expectations for the months of October, November and December.
Breaking down the indicator, consumption grew by 2.2% in the fourth quarter. That improves 1.6% in the third. Two thirds of the economy depend on household spending generated. Therefore, this improvement is considered positive. He also made a positive contribution to GDP real estate, where investment rose 15.3% in the quarter. But private sector investment fell 0.6% and 6.6% public by the decrease of 22% on defense.
The evolution of inventories also force growth rest. And also had a negative effect on the trade balance quarter, where exports fell faster than imports. This strong growth step back in the U.S. increased power happens just when you are about to enter a series of tax increases, which may have the effect of a contraction in personal spending.
The GDP data are met hours before it was made public the decision of central bank rate. Ben Bernanke's team decided to keep the aggressive monetary action, which means keep printing 85,000 million dollars a month to buy government debt and mortgage until there are signs that the economy can begin to stand on its own.
Chairman Bernanke now prefers to keep his foot on the pedal at full throttle stimuli to avoid a premature change of strategy that may later regret. On Friday published work in January. The private sector added 192,000 jobs in the first month of 2013. The Fed reiterated that there will be no change in policy until unemployment does not fall below 6.5%, a goal that was set at the last meeting in December.
The evolution of the labor market will be key to the Fed The expectation is that the performance of the economy gets better, and with economic growth enhances recruitment. But if the forecasts are translated into reality should dissipate the risks still persist for the sovereign debt crisis in Europe and the budget showdown in Washington. The euro, meanwhile, was placed above the $ 1.35.
The Fed notes in its final communiqué, after two days of meeting, that economic activity suffered "a pause in recent months," which largely associated with temporal issues such as Hurricane Sandy and other factors related to political uncertainty in the U.S. UU. On employment considers that continues to expand at a moderate pace while the unemployment rate high. With regard to inflation, Bernanke is comfortable with the price developments and the expectations of stable qualify.
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