スペインでは、経済危機の始まった2007年から住宅価格は、最低35%下落
Pero, ¿cuánto vale realmente mi casa?
El precio de la vivienda ha caído al menos un 35% desde el inicio de la crisis
Los expertos advierten que estas bajadas no han terminado aún
Cristina Galindo Madrid 31 ENE 2013 - 19:04 CET
But how much is really my home?
The price of housing has fallen by at least 35% since the start of the crisis
Experts warn that these cuts are not over yet
Cristina Galindo Madrid 31 ENE 2013 - 19:04 CET
In real estate there is a maximum: the price of a home is what someone is willing to pay for it. But this rule does is very helpful to citizens in times of crisis, are thinking of selling your floor because they have difficulty paying the mortgage or those who want to use their savings to buy a bargain. Since the bubble burst, between 2007 and 2008, the average home has lost a third of its value and most experts agree that there will be further declines this year. Few dare to predict how far the crash.
Uncertainty paralyzes the market. "Nobody really knows how much a house and that's the problem," says José García-Montalvo, Professor of Economics at the University Pompeu Fabra in Barcelona. "A flat is worth what someone pays for it," responds Julio Gil, managing partner of the real estate consultant Horizone.
To purchase must achieve reductions of up to 30% of output
Officially, the price of private housing stood in late 2012 at 1531 euros per square meter, up 27% from the peak in the first quarter of 2008, when the giant bubble pricked gestated from the late nineties, according to the Ministry of Development. Experts say the decline has been greater, between 30% and 47%, depending on the source. But the housing market is so diverse that deep that half is valid relative. "It is a very diverse market, the statistics are averages and are valid with," says Raul Garcia, director of the commercial area of Tinsa, one of the great appraisers. "In some neighborhoods, the falls have become 60%," he adds.
"The discounts are sometimes stories" warns Evaluation Society
He has also lost weight, one of the key references to determine prices. The market, gripped by a lack of funding and weak demand resulting from the economic crisis and unemployment historical records increasingly fewer operations with which to compare the value of a house: the purchases have plummeted from 900,000 in 2004 to shut 300,000 in 2011. "Buyers and sellers are absurd perceptions: the first call for discounts that are sometimes impossible and the latter does not want to risk losing money, all contribute to make it difficult to reach agreements," adds García-Montalvo.
But the big problem is the lack of liquidity, says economist Ricardo Verges: "That's what makes this market works and why the setting is still slower than in other countries such as Ireland."
Pisos.com said to have depreciated over the kind of middle class homes
For if there were already enough confusion, doubts are added present future. The big question is how much prices will fall. Promoters would rather not give percentages on developments in 2013. "The average can go down, but everything is not going to fall," said José Manuel Galindo, president of the Builders Association of Real Spain (APCE). With more specificity, the Management Company of assets from bank restructuring, the bad bank set to engulf the brick toxic, provides that the price begins to rise steadily in 2017 at an average rate of 3% per year, but until then expected to fall two years and two of stagnation.
The appraisers agree that the trend is downward, but gave no figures. "It will depend on the evolution of the economic situation, especially employment and credit," says Raul Garcia, Tinsa. Juan Fernandez-Aceytuno, Director General of Evaluation Society, estimates that the price will fall until 2015.
If no need to sell, better now than in a year, experts say
Standard & Poor's expects that Spain is the European country most prices fall this year, 7.8%, and expects another decrease of 6% in 2014, given the large number of unsold assets. "Everything leads us to believe that the market will continue correcting in 2013, because still dominated by an environment of severe, prolonged recession," says Ángel Serrano, CEO of Aguirre Newman business.
Faced with such chaos, it is not surprising that the potential buyer or seller feel like I was stepping on quicksand. Promoters and developers who build more than 650,000 unsold new homes, encourage individuals to buy and succulent promise discounts. "It is time to buy and, obviously, now not a good time to sell," said José Manuel Galindo. In this sense, Manuel Gandarias, director of studies pisos.com cabinet, believes that "it is always a good time to buy if you have financial capacity and is a home that fits what we're looking for, you can find very good opportunities. "
Pretty skeptical shown Borja Mateo, author of The Truth about the housing market. "Buy now would be crazy. Until 2015-2017 will be very bad time, because prices will drop further. " This expert says that between the price you see on the window of a real-estate agency sales and there is a lag of between 15% and 30%. Furthermore, Matthew offers a custom formula to calculate the price of a home: find out how much it would cost and the annual rent multiplied by 18. "With an income of 11,000 euros a year, the price would be around 180,000 euros", estimated.
Once past the process of obtaining financing, which is not exactly a piece of cake, get the discount mark, according to most experts consulted, whether to buy or not. "To look for opportunities to buy below the market price, but real opportunities, because a 50% discount on the price of 2007 is not so," said Julio Gil, who reminds the shopper that you are holding "all power" .
"Now offering amazing discounts on homes assumptions that have never been sold before, the discounts are sometimes stories," says the director of Evaluation Society. But Fernandez-Aceytuno rather avoid generalizing messages: "Every house is different and everyone has to make their own decisions, we can say that it is the best time to buy, but that does not mean that a family with three children will not find his chance on a floor that they like and can afford. " The expert believes that the price adjustment has been so far, the market has eaten half of the revaluation of assets recorded since the beginning of the boom, ie, we have returned to the 2003 level. "I think prices now are more sustainable and if from there, you get buy with an additional discount of 30%, it would be hard to go wrong," he concludes.
If the decision to buy is difficult, may be to sell. Paradoxically, with a declining market, Borja Mateo advises those who have to sell their apartment to do so soon. In the same vein, Angel Serrano, Aguirre Newman, added: "If you have the need, better to sell in January 2013 than in January 2014."
While waiting for things to go better, many buyers and sellers choose to rent, where prices are down also. In some years, the percentage of homes for rent could increase from 12% today to 25%, as calculated by Professor Garcia-Montalvo.
Individuals who, despite this complicated picture, are determined to go out looking to buy floor where boys might find more deals. The biggest drops were used in housing: buy now a resale flat costs on average 53% less than in the first half of 2007. "While new housing, the price decline has been more tenuous by the efforts of banks and developers to keep prices of valuation, resale housing has been falling faster because the transactions are usually private property brought into contact by neighborhood, "explains Ricardo Verges.
Both new housing as used, the location is crucial. Tinsa estimates that more areas where prices have fallen, with average decreases of 40% since late 2007, is found in the Mediterranean coastal towns, where many second homes. "We continue to large cities and provincial capitals, with a fall of 37% and the islands, with a decline of 27%," says Raul Garcia.
In pisos.com also calculated how much prices have fallen as the type of the property. "They have depreciated more middle class type homes," according to Manuel Gandarias, director of the research bureau of the real estate website. "Second are the chalets, and finally, the upscale urban homes. In terms of percentage, it is difficult to estimate, since it depends on where they are hopelessly "he adds.
This year also marked the end of the super-reduced VAT for the purchase of housing and tax deductions, although many experts say the promoters deducted the effect of the tax benefits of the sale price, bringing relief to the buyer was a mirage.
Another factor is that trade policy will continue the bad bank and if this will push prices down. "I think their strategy will be more important in the long run than in the short term," the director believes Evaluation Society, launching a last warning for the future: "I hope I'm wrong, but people will buy snacks and floors beyond what is reasonable. The property is well. I've seen it in other cycles. "
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