国際通貨基金の予測によると、2013年のスペインの経済成長率はー1'5%で、2014年には0'8%微増に。
El FMI advierte de que 2013 será peor para España que el recién acabado 2012
El organismo empeora sus previsiones y augura una contracción del 1,5% del PIB para este año
La recuperación tendrá lugar en 2014 con un tímido repunte del 0,8%
El FMI cree que el sector financiero sigue siendo demasiado grande
Sandro Pozzi Nueva York 23 ENE 2013 - 18:18 CET
The IMF warns that 2013 will be worse for the newly finished Spain 2012
The body and worsens its forecast predicts a contraction of 1.5% of GDP this year
The recovery will take place in 2014 with a slight rise of 0.8%
The IMF believes that the financial sector is still too big
Sandro Pozzi New York 23 ENE 2013 - 18:18 CET
The latest revision of the forecasts that manages the International Monetary Fund on Spain throws few surprises as to the direction and sense of the crisis. However, it increases the speed of recession and worse prognosis for 2013, which will be worse than the recently concluded 2012. With this, the country will continue to queue for recovery among advanced economies. Only Spain is worse than Greece, as already said the IMF to present their forecasts in October.
According to new figures from the IMF, Spain's gross domestic product will shrink 1.5% this year when, in October predicted a drop of 1.4%. This forecast is worse than expected balance for 2012, a year that has advanced this morning as the Bank of Spain is closed down 1.3%, and triples the result that the Government estimated that insists on falling only 0.5%. Against the rest of the world, the comparison is not good, because the performance of Spanish GDP falls far short of the 3.5% expected for the global economy in 2013 and 1.4% projected for the rich countries.
After touring the rest of the year in negative territory, growth in Spain will arrive in 2014. In that economists seem to agree both the Fund and the Spanish Government. Another thing is the rate at which the desired rebound will occur, the agency in Washington makes a timid 0.8% of GDP, two points less than it announced in October. Again, the figure falls far short of the 4.1% now expected average for the whole of the world's economies and 2.2% to the IMF estimates for the group of developed powers.
Source: IMF / The Country
As for what happened from October to now, only Japan suffers a cut larger than Spain in its outlook for 2014. Internationally, the IMF said that the rally will be "more gradual" than anticipated three months ago because it reduced the risk of an acute crisis in Europe.
Olivier Blanchard, director of the IMF, acknowledged to present new forecasts that financial markets are ahead of the real economy in their perception of the situation. While cautioning that "perhaps there is too much optimism." So prefer no illusions, and persisting challenges and risks in the short term. "We have avoided some mountain climbing cliffs but remains high," he added.
moreThe crisis leaves a lost decade for the peripheral countries of the euroLagarde said that avoided the "collapse", but sees risk of relapseWorld Bank urges emerging reforms deepenThe euro zone economy fell 0.1% in recession
Last week, Christine Lagarde, managing director of the Fund, and said the collapse was averted thanks to the policies adopted at the last minute in Europe. But he also warned not to "rest on their laurels." In this regard, the agency notes that the recovery "is late" to the euro zone. Another step back could undermine the process again, asks why the periphery efforts are supported by the center.
The euro zone is and remains the region worst stop. The contraction is 0.2% this year, instead of growing by 0.2% as stated in the latest projection. In 2012, the Fund estimates, the contraction was 0.4%. By 2014, however, anticipated that the countries of the monetary union will grow again with an increase of 1%. In this case, the downward revision is a tenth. The implementation of reforms is key to avoiding a generalized stagnation.
The IMF seems more optimistic, though his fingers crossed economists. "If downside risks do not materialize and financial conditions continue to improve, global growth could be stronger than projected," the team led by Olivier Blanchard. Not only are set in Europe, also in the effect of tight fiscal debate in the U.S. over the debt limit.
Earrings also U.S.
The performance of the U.S. economy surprised the IMF for good. In fact it is considered one of the factors behind a "modest improvement" in global conditions in the third quarter of 2012. Also the fact that the financial situation has stabilized, in particular the price of the debt of the countries of the European periphery.
The growth forecast for the U.S. is 2% for this year, three percent less than in 2012, and is placed around its potential in 2013. In both cases the review is minimal, about one tenth as discussed in October. The evolution of the housing market, which gives clear signs of stabilization, is already having a positive effect on growth.
The main source of growth in the current climate remains among the emerging, which will advance 5.5% in 2013 and 5.9% in 2014. The capital flows to these countries remains robust. But international trade does not end rebounding and falling demand in rich countries is affecting some developing economies, which will prevent the levels of 2010 and 2011.
These projections are based on the premise that Europe will hold the type, as indicated by the technicians in his report date. Therefore, the agency insists that political action should be taken to shore up a global recovery that is dismissing as "fragile". The recipe to reduce risk and uncertainty is the same: moving towards fiscal consolidation and financial reform.
In any case, the performance of the economy in advanced countries is insufficient to reduce unemployment in a consistent manner, Blanchard said at a press conference in which not answer a single question about Spain. The only reference to the Spanish situation Entries came from the director of the IMF on the adjustments made in Italy, which admitted that "caused adverse effects." However, "there was not much choice" or to Italy or in Spain, said.
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