スペインの50%の経営者は、ひきつずき かいこを つずける
Las empresas seguirán despidiendo
La mitad de las compañías destruirá empleo en 2013, según el Barómetro de Empresas de EL PAÍS
Solo uno de cada diez directivos prevé ampliar su plantilla este año
David Fernández / Carlos Gómez 27 ENE 2013 - 00:00 CET
Companies will continue firing
Half of the companies destroy jobs in 2013, according to the Business Barometer COUNTRY
Only one in ten executives plans to expand its workforce this year
David Fernandez / Carlos Gomez 27 ENE 2013 - 00:00 CET
From bad to worse. Slashing Spain and 6 million unemployed and over 26% in unemployment rate, according to Labour Force Survey (LFS) made public this week by the INE, and situation-as the main drivers of its evolution: entrepreneurs- will deteriorate sharply in the coming months. One of two Spanish businessmen confesses that employment has declined in the last six months and it will do the same in the first half of 2013, and only 1 in 10 trusts create throughout this exercise. Optimists, only a third of the business community, postponed to the first half of next year, the desired economic recovery and hence the possible meeting of a turning point in job destruction.
These are some of the main findings of the Business Barometer COUNTRY, for the second half of 2012. A Deloitte survey draws on a sample of 273 companies based in Spain and in all sectors, which together exceed one billion euros in revenues and one million workers in the workforce.
The crisis will not end at the earliest, until the second half of 2014
Entrepreneurs' opinion does not differ in substance with the final diagnosis of the IMF ("growth in Spain will arrive in 2014") or with the concerns expressed this week by German Chancellor Merkel at Davos (cited his dismay over the Spanish high youth unemployment - "50% or even 60%" -). Most of the panelists in the latest edition of the Business Barometer remain pessimistic about the economic situation, but have eased in some unfavorable vision diopter. Maybe because in the second half of 2012, around 50% of those surveyed reported increases in profitability and investment and held for the six months preceding the same levels of production and sales.
The outlook for the first half of 2013 the Spanish economy showed a trend continuity. 55% of those surveyed believe that GDP growth will worsen in the first part of the year, 39% are committed to remain the same and only 6% say it will improve. Regarding when to expect the economic recovery to occur, the percentage of panelists who will believe in the first half of 2014 (32%), although 31% of employers do not see the light at the end of the tunnel until 2015 .
The pessimistic view has eased slightly in recent months
Employment is undoubtedly indicator having a worse outcome and a worse outlook is also in the eyes of employers. The results of the second half have been lower than expected in late June. Then, only 42% of total adelantaban its intention to cut staff, and finally employment have destroyed 52% of the companies. Typical reasons cited to justify these redundancies and recruitment cuts have been the economic, indicated by 61% of the panelists, the decline in order backlog and production, mentioned by 39%, and pensions and early retirement , mentioned by 35%. Those in employment have improved in the second half, a bare 15% of the sample, explained by an increase in its portfolio of products and services (45% of these responses) and increased its order and its production (36%).
According to the Barometer data for the first half of 2013, is not expected improvement in employment, as most of the companies surveyed believe that will reduce its workforce, and they expect to increase their effective labor are reduced to 7%. By sector, and as entrepreneurs, the hardest hit with job losses will be construction and contracts, despite the massive destruction they have suffered since the start of the crisis in Spain, and transportation and logistics. Technology companies are best relative performance had in the past six months and look set to repeat this pattern in the present.
42% of companies surveyed expected increases in sales this year
Figures and forecasts are in line with production and billing data collected in this edition of the Barometer. These two trend indicators in the last second half, remained fairly stable (47% of the companies reported declines, and 31%, increases), but below forecasts made by employers in late June.
For the first half of 2013, the opinions are divided almost equally. Most expect their production and sales remain constant (35%), a somewhat smaller group anticipates reductions (33%), and other potential targets increases.
Forecasts of these two business lines for the full year 2013 are optimistic. 42% of companies surveyed expect to increase their production and sales figures, 28%, reduce, and a third more, keep them in the levels of 2012. Stresses the good behavior expected for the technology sector (all companies included therein panelists anticipate increased sales in the current first half). Those who confess they are going to get worse, in these chapters, and at least until the summer, are the transport and logistics groups and construction.
Exports continued to have a role in the turnover of the companies of the Barometer, although in general, the results have been very different in the consultations of the first and second half of 2012. Most of the panelists, four out of ten believe that overseas sales account for over 30% of its total turnover. But almost one-third of entrepreneurs, in part because of the diversity of groups involved, qualify with a zero export importance for them.
Exports remain vital to corporate accounts
Although Spanish exports fell in November for the first time since April, it is true that slightly (0.6%), according to the latest data released by the Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness Barometer entrepreneurs are optimistic in their forecasts. What I would suggest a cyclical downturn in the evolution of these sales. The fall and slowing its progression has been due mainly to lower economic growth being registered in the European Union as a whole, which is our main export market (63% of it), and an unexpected drop 0.5% of the German economy in the fourth quarter of 2012.
Despite this scenario, more than half of employers surveyed expect to increase their exports this year, and only 12% reduction. The companies manufacturing sector is the most important grants exports, according to the responses of the panelists (78% attributed more than 30% of its sales in the second half of 2012). Equally important in their accounts are attributed to foreign sales, 50% of companies panelists hospitality, tourism and technology.
Exports also contributed to higher profits or lower losses in a lot of groups. During the second half of 2012, most companies Barometer -49% of the total and nine points ahead of the data recorded in June, have improved their performance, 8% have maintained their pre-tax profit, and 43% have reduced. The economic environment, as entrepreneurs, has been the main cause of loss of profits.
Almost half of the companies surveyed, regardless of the sector they are attached, estimate that increase their profitability in the first half of 2013. They are especially optimistic technology companies and health and pharmacy for the first half.
The changes in this latest edition of the Barometer have been important in the investment chapter. If in the first half of 2012 was the variable that had underperformed in the second half is the best response was obtained. 43% of companies have increased their investments, and only 27% have reduced. Its forecasts for the first half of 2013 are similar.
Cybersecurity, the unfinished
Spanish companies are becoming increasingly aware of the other side of the coin of the information technology, Trojan attacks and theft of sensitive information, and are betting on a gradual but growing for cybersecurity, as reflected in the last section Business Barometer second half of 2012 prepared by experts Inteco.
The survey reveals that 77% of companies have already panelists in your organization with a security, although only 25% meet those functions specifically, being mainly responsible for technology and systems who assumes this responsibility. Moreover, in most of the companies surveyed, the head of cybersecurity does not occupy an executive position.
Most companies anticipate that increased or will increase their investments in cybersecurity this year, although the amount given to this game is reduced (from 10,000 to 50,000 per year) and only 35% of them performed systematic analyzes and recurrent cybersecurity.
A study by McAfee Inc. and Science Applications International Corporation notes that one in four organizations have suffered from the interruption or delay in merger or acquisition, or implementation of any new product or solution, because of a leak data consummate or a credible threat that may arise.
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