スペインの2012年10月ー12月の経済成長率はー0'6%で、2012年では年間ー1'7%に、緊縮財政と付加価値税の値上げと公務員の12月のボーナスの廃止のせい。
Los recortes del Gobierno agravan la recesión en el cuarto trimestre
El alza del IVA y la supresión de la paga extra "intensifican" el deterioro del consumo
El Banco de España calcula que la economía cayó un 0,6% en el cuarto trimestre
La contracción del PIB a lo largo de todo el año se queda en un 1,7%
La cifra coincide con la que adelantó ayer el ministro Guindos
Guindos adelanta las cifras del supervisor
El País Madrid 23 ENE 2013 - 16:51 CE
Government cuts worsen the recession in the fourth quarter
The rise in VAT and the removal of the extra "intensify" the decline in consumption
The Bank of Spain estimates the economy shrank by 0.6% in the fourth quarter
The contraction of GDP throughout the year remains at 1.3%
The figure matches the Minister announced yesterday that Guindos
Forward Guindos figures supervisor
The Country Madrid 23 ENE 2013 - 16:51 CET
The recession in Spain, the second in just three years, intensified in the fourth quarter of 2012 due to adjustments to the deficit, according to the Bank of Spain, which is now warning that when the impact of these measures is beginning to be felt in full force in the economy. Available indicators suggest that the negative trend of the Spanish economy "would have increased between October and December, estimated a decline in the quarterly rate of GDP of 0.6%, representing a drop in annual rate of 1.7 %, "said the agency in its latest Economic Bulletin, published this morning.
In this quarterly report, the Spanish economy accumulates its fourth consecutive quarter to the floor and also throws its worst figure of this period. GDP recession started in the latter part of 2011 with a fall of 0.5% during the first half of 2012, adding two quarters in which repetió negative growth rate of 0.4%, also in rate quarter. In the third quarter, however, managed to moderate his receding thanks to the advancement of purchases that took place by the will of the families and businesses ahead of the VAT increase on 1 September. The Economy Minister Luis de Guindos, already recognized in late December that the fourth quarter would be the "most difficult" of the relapse.
Source: INE and Bank of Spain / The Country
The Bank of Spain attributed the further deterioration of the confluence of temporary factors, such as the aforementioned effect of advance purchases by the VAT increase or "suppression of the extra payment of officials, with more persistent, such as maintaining a tighter financing conditions, despite recent months relief, or the weakness of the labor market. " With this, domestic demand "increased its rate of decline to a quarterly rate of 1.9%", representing a fall of 4.6% from the fourth quarter of 2011.
"The household consumption showed negative records throughout the year, although more intense in the final months, due to the impact of fiscal consolidation measures on household income and the inflation rate," the supervisor, which encrypts the contraction in household spending up 1.6% QoQ and 1.9% on average in 2012. In the last three months of the year, plus VAT and the removal of the extra pay, the government also decided not to compensate pensioners for the deviation of CPI. In the "foreseeable declining rents" in this quarter, says the Bank of Spain, households think twice buying decisions. Furthermore, as has been the case in previous months, had to dip into their savings to maintain a certain level of spending "in a context unfavorable prospects on the labor market and the persistence of a climate of uncertainty."
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Faced with the persistent weakening of domestic consumption and investment, the external sector continued to provide the only positive news about the Spanish economy, although the deteriorating situation in neighboring countries took its toll. Between October and December, as highlighted by the Bank of Spain, net exports rebounded until contribute 1.4 percentage points to GDP from the previous quarter. On year, its momentum resulted in a positive contribution of 2.9 percentage points. This was because families and businesses reduced their purchases while abroad, the export side, the weakening of the eurozone caused a "loss of tone" of sales.
With respect to the balance of the whole year, the institution run by Luis Maria Linde estimated that the Spanish economy contracted by 1.3%. "Behind this decline is a contraction of domestic demand (-3.9%), higher than the previous year, and contributed all of its components, both consumption and investment." By contrast, net exports eased, once again, the contraction with a positive contribution of 2.6 percentage points.
The figure of a fall of 1.3% of GDP and was advanced yesterday by himself Guindos, who commented to the press data assuming incorrectly that had been published the Economic Bulletin of the Bank of Spain. The advance stopped questioning its supposed autonomy and independence from the government. The point is that the figure coincides with the latest revised forecast of Economy after mid-year estimate to a decline of 1.5%, which somehow explains the rush of the minister to publicize the figures.
On the labor market, the Bank of Spain estimates that employment fell in 2012 to a rate higher than the previous year, a decrease of 4.3%, partly because of the loss of public employment, which has fallen for the first time since the onset of the crisis. Furthermore, he claims that wages fell again after the brief upward paréntisis 2011 "estimated a decrease in compensation per employee of 0.6%, heavily influenced by lower public wages" qualifies.
As for the deficit, you can not close the year at 6.3% because of aid to banks, the supervisor recalled that in the last part of 2012 there was a "very significant reduction in the deviation of the collection tax "due to the acceleration of the new tax revenues and the change in the corporate tax. By 2013, however, calls for greater use of scissors. "European commitments made in the framework of the Stability Pact marked a deficit target of 4.5% of GDP for the whole of the government, the achievement of which will require additional fiscal undertake a very ambitious effort by both the central government and communities, "he says.
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