2012年のドイツの経済成長率は、0'7%ー0'9%で、2012年10月ー12月は0'5%減少
La recesión del euro toca a Alemania, que cae el 0,5% en el último trimestre de 2012
Es la mayor caída en la actividad económica alemana desde el fin de la Gran Recesión de 2009
El Gobierno de Merkel se apunta el primer superávit público desde que estalló la crisis
Alejandro Bolaños Madrid 15 ENE 2013 - 10:41 CET
The recession in Germany's euro, falling 0.5% in the last quarter of 2012
It is the largest decline in economic activity in Germany since the end of the Great Recession of 2009
Merkel's government says the first budget surplus since the outbreak of the crisis
Alejandro Bolaños Madrid 15 ENE 2013 - 10:41 CET
The German economy was a bastion of (thin) and employment growth in the euro zone already in recession again this summer to link two consecutive quarters of decline. But it was a matter of time that the sharp fall in demand in other European countries affected by the debt crisis, the battery cuts and tax increases to address the deficit deployed, atrancara the German locomotive. The federal statistics office has predicted that German GDP grew by only 0.7% -0.9% if adjusted for the different calendar days, in 2012, so that the fourth quarter would have fallen to 0.5 % from the previous quarter.
It is the largest decline in economic activity in Germany since the end of the Great Recession in 2009. And it has been more intense than anticipated. In any case, most of them still believe that Germany weather the recession, as indicators of German business confidence have improved, which is expected German GDP may recover something at boot 2013.
Signs of weakness in the German economy coincide with the first positive budget balance since 2007, another demonstration of budgetary orthodoxy Executive Angela Merkel: German public sector ended the year with a surplus of 0.1% of GDP. According to the German statistical office, the Government turned to deficit reduction (helped by the low cost of financing with very low interest rates), while the Social Security provided a large surplus (through the sixth consecutive record of employment, with 41.6 million people with work).
Euro crisis now affects only the German labor market, but their growth expectations. For although circumventing the recession, the German economy is almost stagnant: in 2012 only took a third of that grew the previous year (3.1% per year, adjusted for calendar). And the government will unveil on Wednesday its forecast for 2013, the Bundesbank, the German central bank, and lowered to 0.5%, when its previous forecast that GDP will grow by 1.6% this year.
The recession itself already affects most euro area countries is felt in the pace of German exports, much warmer in the whole of last year (4.1%) than in 2011 (7.8 %). Still, as imports advanced even less (2.3%), the external balance was again "the guiding force for German economic growth," according to the statement emphasizes statistical office, to contribute 1.1 percentage points to GDP growth.
In domestic demand, the evolution along 2012 was mixed. Private consumption (0.8%, barely half that in 2011) and public (1%) were recorded small positive annual rates, while investment declined, especially in capital goods (-4.4%) for the first time since 2009, which may be an indicator of the German business confidence in the economic environment. By sector, plays the situation: the advancement of services barely offset the decline in manufacturing and construction.
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