スペインの10年国債の金利は、アメリカ合衆国からの"風"で、5'0%前後に停滞、風が吹けば桶屋がもうかった！またすぐに上るだろう。
Europa y la mejora de los mercados alejan de España el fantasma del rescate
Los inversores reabren el grifo de dinero para el Tesoro y para las grandes empresas
Amanda Mars 13 ENE 2013 - 00:04 CET
Europe and improving markets away from the ghost rescue Spain
Investors reopen the tap of money for the Treasury and for large companies
Amanda Mars 13 ENE 2013 - 00:04 CET
The feel of the market is fickle, capricious, but his language is relentless. In just a few weeks, Spain has emerged from the worst anxiety and entered a quiet stadium. This is one of those calm tense of unpredictable duration, but the need for a bailout of the country is at its farthest point from a year ago.
The improvement started after the summer, with the first warnings of European Central Bank (ECB) that would act forcefully to save the Eurozone, but this has been the start of 2013 has turned a corner in Spanish debt: the country risk has halved since reaching a record high in July and the interest that you require Spanish bonds have hit the lowest since March. Some economic auspicious nod ECB and Brussels regarding the possibility of easing the terms on which the Spanish government must reduce its public deficit have conspired with international investors in this improvement.
The risk premium has reached its lowest level since March
Spain, however, continues in the wire: is in recession, and the unemployment rate is over 25% and a bad deficit figures for 2012 may change the market sentiment and return instantly to leave the country to the brink of precipice. But today, a truce was declared and the Government clings to it as a straw to bypass the bitter trance rescue, regardless of the plan to rescue banks and received from Europe. The interest paid on Spanish 10-year bond in July rose above 7.5%, a level that would have been untenable to continue, and this week fell below 5% for the first time since March. The risk premium (the interest rate differential of these securities compared to the Germans), touched 649 basis points (0 6.49 percentage points) in those dark days, and this week came down to 324.
The Treasury held its first debt auction of the year on a high note, with lower interest rates than in the past placements, and large companies such as Telefonica and Natural Gas issued long-term debt at a price even lower than that paid by the State. "There have been improvements and opened a window of liquidity, but the situation remains fragile," says Xavier Vives, IESE professor and member of the German research institution CESifo. The general secretary of the Treasury, Iñigo Fernández de Mesa, also said this week that "we are better now than a year ago", but called for "prudence".
The main risks, recession and the deficit, remain open
There is a political narrative to the euphoria of this week: ECB president, Mario Draghi, has given a certificate of naturalization to improving financial markets, has ensured that the fragmentation between northern countries and southern Europe is shrinking and has predicted that the improvement in the call will sink real economy (the production, which creates jobs). The infections, he said, will be positive this time. The price of money and vice commissary and Economic Affairs Commissioner Olli Rehn confirmed that Brussels is raised to extend the deadline for Spain to reduce its deficit. The goal was for a maximum of 6.3% of GDP in 2012, from 4.5% in 2013 and 3% in 2014. The Economy Minister Luis de Guindos, insisted from Berlin, after meeting with his German counterpart, Wolfgang Schäuble, that "Spain does not need any rescue, but regain confidence in the future of the euro."
The state pays more interest than some companies
Amanda Mars
Why more investors are wary of Telefónica or Natural Gas that the Spanish state itself, and ask less interest? Fernando Hernandez, managing director Inversis, remember that the difference in judgment between values and other "makes sense because these businesses are not local, are multinational and are judged as such, both in terms of credit rating home \ [Spain is one step away from junk to Standard & Poor's \].
The same goes for banks, according to David Cano, CEO of Financial Analysts International (AFI), the market has realized that it is a sector "is very segmented between those with and those without problems." Although no cheaper prices than the sovereigns, Caixabank also placed three-year bonds worth 1,000 million this week with a coupon of 3.2% and a financing cost exceeded only by 25 basis points to Treasuries. The People, meanwhile, sold 750 million in bonds to 2.5 years at 4.12% interest, when in the last auction of government bonds to three years paid a marginal 3.3% interest.
Cano noted how difficult it is to compare a company with a state, but remember, for example, Telefónica "has decided to reward the bondholders to its shareholders because it has been divesting and failing to pay a dividend, which has guaranteed its bondholders that debts be paid, and that is exactly what the State must prove ". This guarantee has allowed the company to pay the lowest interest rates in its history, which in the global scope can not have more sense since official interest rates in Europe, the price of money, there is also a minimum of 0 , 75%.
And it was the news that Spain might have to rescue what has calm waters and allowed waves away that need help. The turning point came at the end of July, when Draghi said he would do whatever it took to save the euro and the ECB would help with the purchase of bonds from troubled countries on condition they asked the rescue (and subsequent conditions on reforms and austerity). The placebo effect is maintained since then, but the improvement has been remarkable especially starting 2013.
The market has been awakened a ravenous appetite for corporate bonds of peripheral European countries such as Spain and Italy, with more interest than companies haven countries like Germany. Telefónica and Natural Gas had the stroke. The telecommunications company on Tuesday issued 1,000 million in 10-year bonds at an interest rate of 3.987%, which is a financing cost more than a percentage point below what the Treasury pays, 5.29% in the last auction securities with that maturity. In addition, bonds that investors bought and sold in the market already issued, exchanged that day cheaper, but still 5.04%.
Also the gas company based in Barcelona was able to place 10-year bonds worth 600 million with an interest rate of 3.98%. And previously, on January 3, BBVA also received better treatment than the State to pay the 3.78% to place 1,500 million five-year debt, when the first auction of Treasury bonds this year that period resulted in marginal interest of 4.033%.
Funding for the Spanish company seems very cheap when compared to the public, but not so with its European rivals: if the cost of issuing Telefónica stands this week 310 basis points (or 3.1 percentage points) on the midswap called (the European reference) and Gas touched 230 basis points, which the German Deutsche Telekom paid last October for bonds maturing in 12 years was at 82 basis points above the midswap.
Because the gap, Draghi said this week, begins to narrow, but the real economy have not seen.
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