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国際通貨基金は、ユーロ圏は物価減少(経済沈降?)の危機あり、欧州金融安定基金の銀行への直接融資や欧州債券の行使を推薦(欧州中央銀行の無策がユーロ危機の原因!)
El FMI advierte de que vuelve a haber riesgo de deflación en la zona euro
El Fondo avisa de una probabilidad "significativa" de caída de precios en los países periféricos
Impuestos y tasas “enmascaran” las presiones a la baja sobre la inflación, según los expertos
El organismo recomienda usar el fondo de rescate o eurobonos para apuntalar la unión bancaria
The IMF warns that back to be a risk of deflation in the euro area
The Fund warns of a likely "significant" drop in prices in the peripheral countries
Taxes and fees "mask" the downward pressure on inflation, experts say
The agency recommends using the rescue fund or Eurobonds to shore up the banking union
Alejandro Bolaños Madrid 18 JUL 2012 - 15:00 CET
The Fund warns of a likely "significant" drop in prices in the peripheral countries
Taxes and fees "mask" the downward pressure on inflation, experts say
The agency recommends using the rescue fund or Eurobonds to shore up the banking union
Alejandro Bolaños Madrid 18 JUL 2012 - 15:00 CET
The final report of the technical team of International Monetary Fund (IMF) on the Euro Area recovers an old acquaintance of this crisis: deflation. According to experts of the Fund, the average growth of consumer prices in the Seventeen fall "well below 2% in 2013 and remain there during 2014." But, he adds, "there is a substantial risk that inflation becomes even negative rates of change in the medium term."
The fall in consumer prices in several European countries, including Spain, has already been piloted for several months in 2009, when we combined the effects of the Great Recession in consumption and the fall in oil prices. The CPI was 1.4% back, while core inflation, which excludes energy and fresh food products for its volatility-stalled. Then the alarms sounded, because the deflation-a general fall in prices and long-has devastating effects on economies already weakened, as proved in the Great Depression of 1929 in the U.S. or in the nineties of last century in Japan.
The persistent decline in prices inhibit consumption, people expect a higher drop-reducing margins and increasing unemployment. At the same time, increases the value of the debt does not vary by inflation or deflation, as compared with other goods and services, which makes more difficult the return. The green shoots in the global economy at the beginning of 2010 and the recovery of oil prices away from a threat that the IMF now be wary again.
With recession and running again in crude oil prices falling, the Fund's experts see ghosts again. Although nuance: "The risk of deflation is relatively low in economies with higher growth, but significant in the periphery, where rates and tax increases are masking strong downward pressure on prices." Spain provides a good example, with unemployment rates of 25%, a recession is announced long and gradual reduction of wages, still reflects the CPI annual rate of 1.9%, in the underlying 1.3% -. The increase in electricity rates and public transport has helped to maintain the level of inflation, as will happen from September with the increase in VAT.
more informationThe Spain Fund expected to prolong the recession to 2013Urges the ECB to revive the purchase of bonds from countries in distress
Notice of the IMF has two audiences: the European Central Bank (ECB) and the northern countries in the eurozone, with Germany at its head. The argument of a forecast of low inflation allows the Fund to insist on further cuts in interest rates beyond the 0.75% set in July. It is also a warning to "trade surplus countries" to allow wage and price increases to facilitate the adjustment of competitiveness to the South. In fact, the IMF chief economist, Olivier Blanchard, has advocated raising the inflation target in the euro zone from 2% to 3%. And some economists like Paul Krugman and Kenneth Rogoff, encourage greater objectives to facilitate the payment of public and private debts.
Union Bank
The annual report by IMF staff on the euro area focuses much of its conclusions as soon as possible how to facilitate the achievement of union bank, a goal that the Fund's experts considered "priority". The report assesses the results of the summit in late June, opening the way to an integrated financial supervision (the ECB) and allows pre-unanimous support of the Euro-direct use of the bailout fund to aid troubled banks, without going through the States, which now (for Spain) feeds the risks of banking and public debt.
The IMF argues that in addition to unifying financial supervision, at least of the big European banks-one needs a common scheme to guarantee all bank deposits in the euro area. And a unique mechanism of bank resolution. In both cases, is committed to imposing a levy on the bank's image and likeness of what is already the case in Spain, to finance both initiatives. But also calls for funding to support such "hot spots" with the opening of a line of credit from the ECB or with the contribution of public resources.
Here, the IMF proposal forks. The Fund's experts believe can be flexible to allow rescue fund to provide resources to guarantee bank deposits or the intervention of problem banks. Another way, pose, is a joint debt issue, the so-called Eurobonds, but "limited and scalable."
The report calls for ways to circumvent a reform of the Treaties, which would involve a long and tortuous. The favorite is the reduced emission of euroletras "for its lower maturity", linked to fiscal policy commitments and the reserve for tax revenue to ensure its return.
The fall in consumer prices in several European countries, including Spain, has already been piloted for several months in 2009, when we combined the effects of the Great Recession in consumption and the fall in oil prices. The CPI was 1.4% back, while core inflation, which excludes energy and fresh food products for its volatility-stalled. Then the alarms sounded, because the deflation-a general fall in prices and long-has devastating effects on economies already weakened, as proved in the Great Depression of 1929 in the U.S. or in the nineties of last century in Japan.
The persistent decline in prices inhibit consumption, people expect a higher drop-reducing margins and increasing unemployment. At the same time, increases the value of the debt does not vary by inflation or deflation, as compared with other goods and services, which makes more difficult the return. The green shoots in the global economy at the beginning of 2010 and the recovery of oil prices away from a threat that the IMF now be wary again.
With recession and running again in crude oil prices falling, the Fund's experts see ghosts again. Although nuance: "The risk of deflation is relatively low in economies with higher growth, but significant in the periphery, where rates and tax increases are masking strong downward pressure on prices." Spain provides a good example, with unemployment rates of 25%, a recession is announced long and gradual reduction of wages, still reflects the CPI annual rate of 1.9%, in the underlying 1.3% -. The increase in electricity rates and public transport has helped to maintain the level of inflation, as will happen from September with the increase in VAT.
more informationThe Spain Fund expected to prolong the recession to 2013Urges the ECB to revive the purchase of bonds from countries in distress
Notice of the IMF has two audiences: the European Central Bank (ECB) and the northern countries in the eurozone, with Germany at its head. The argument of a forecast of low inflation allows the Fund to insist on further cuts in interest rates beyond the 0.75% set in July. It is also a warning to "trade surplus countries" to allow wage and price increases to facilitate the adjustment of competitiveness to the South. In fact, the IMF chief economist, Olivier Blanchard, has advocated raising the inflation target in the euro zone from 2% to 3%. And some economists like Paul Krugman and Kenneth Rogoff, encourage greater objectives to facilitate the payment of public and private debts.
Union Bank
The annual report by IMF staff on the euro area focuses much of its conclusions as soon as possible how to facilitate the achievement of union bank, a goal that the Fund's experts considered "priority". The report assesses the results of the summit in late June, opening the way to an integrated financial supervision (the ECB) and allows pre-unanimous support of the Euro-direct use of the bailout fund to aid troubled banks, without going through the States, which now (for Spain) feeds the risks of banking and public debt.
The IMF argues that in addition to unifying financial supervision, at least of the big European banks-one needs a common scheme to guarantee all bank deposits in the euro area. And a unique mechanism of bank resolution. In both cases, is committed to imposing a levy on the bank's image and likeness of what is already the case in Spain, to finance both initiatives. But also calls for funding to support such "hot spots" with the opening of a line of credit from the ECB or with the contribution of public resources.
Here, the IMF proposal forks. The Fund's experts believe can be flexible to allow rescue fund to provide resources to guarantee bank deposits or the intervention of problem banks. Another way, pose, is a joint debt issue, the so-called Eurobonds, but "limited and scalable."
The report calls for ways to circumvent a reform of the Treaties, which would involve a long and tortuous. The favorite is the reduced emission of euroletras "for its lower maturity", linked to fiscal policy commitments and the reserve for tax revenue to ensure its return.
IMFはユーロ圏のデフレのリスクがあるために、その背中を警告 基金は、周辺の国における価格の可能性が高い"重要"のドロップを警告 税金および手数料"マスク"インフレへの下方圧力が、専門家は言う 機関は、銀行組合を強化するために救済基金やユーロ債を使用することをお勧めし
デフレ：ユーロ圏で国際通貨基金（IMF）の技術チームの最終報告書は、この危機の古い知人を回復します。基金の専門家によると、セブンティーン秋の消費者物価の平均成長 "、2013年も2％以下、2014年の間に残っている。"しかし、彼は追加して、 "インフレは中期的にも変化の負の速度になるという大きなリスクがあります。"
スペインを含むいくつかの欧州諸国の消費者物価、下落はすでに我々が消費の大不況と原油価格の下落の影響を組み合わせた場合、2009年に数ヶ月のために操縦されています。 CPIは、ボラティリティ·停止のためのエネルギーや新鮮な食品を除くコアインフレ、一方で、戻って1.4％であった。米国や日本での最後の世紀の90年代の1929年の大恐慌で証明したように物価のデフレ一般的な秋と、すでに弱体化経済に壊滅的な影響を長期的には持っているのでその後のアラームが、鳴った。
物価の持続的な下落が消費を抑制し、人々はより高いドロップ低減マージンと増加する失業を期待しています。同時に、より困難なリターンを作る他の財やサービスと比較して負債の値は、インフレやデフレによって異なりはありませんが増加します。 2010年の初めとIMFが再び警戒することを脅威から離れて、原油価格の回復で世界経済の中で緑の新芽。
景気後退や原油価格の下落で再度実行している状態で、基金の専門家は、再び幽霊を参照してください。ニュアンスが "率と増税が価格に強い下方圧力をマスキングされている場所デフレのリスクは、周囲に比較的高い成長率と経済の低い、しかし重要である。"スペインは25％の失業率で、良い例を提供し、景気後退は、基礎となる1.3パーセントで、まだ1.9％のCPI年率を反映し、賃金の長い緩やかな削減を発表している - 。電気料金や公共交通機関の増加は、付加価値の増加に伴って9月から行われるように、インフレ率のレベルを維持するために役立っています。
詳細については、スペイン·ファンドは、2013年に不況を長引かせることが期待苦痛の国々からの債券の購入を復活させるためにECBを促す
欧州中央銀行（ECB）とユーロ圏の北部の国、ドイツとその頭：IMFの通知は、2種類の読者を持っています。低インフレの見通しの引数は、基金は、7月に0.75％セット以外の金利のさらなる引き下げを主張することができます。それは南に競争力の調整を容易にするために、賃金と物価の上昇を可能にするためにも、 "黒字国の貿易"という警告です。実際には、国際通貨基金（IMF）チーフエコノミスト、オリヴィエブランチャードは、2％から3％へユーロ圏にインフレ目標を引き上げ提唱してきた。とポール·クルーグマン、ケネスロゴフのようないくつかの経済学者は、公共および民間債務の支払いを容易にするために、より大きな目標をお勧めします。
ユニオンバンク
ユーロ圏におけるIMFスタッフによる年次報告書は、組合銀行、基金の専門家は "優先順位"と考えている目標の達成を促進する方法を、できるだけ早くその結論の多くを焦点を当てています。報告書は、統合された金融監督（ECB）への道を開く、6月下旬に首脳会談の結果を評価し、問題を抱えた銀行を支援するための救済資金のユーロ直接使用の事前全会一致の支持を可能にする米国を経由せず、それは今（スペイン）、銀行や公的債務のリスクを供給します。
IMFは統一金融監督に加えて、少なくともうちの大きな欧州の銀行-Oneは、ユーロ圏ではすべての銀行預金を保証する共通のスキームが必要であることを主張している。銀行解決のユニークな機構。両方のケースでは、両方の取り組みを資金調達のために、すでにスペインの場合は何かの銀行のイメージと似ているの課徴金を課すことに努めています。しかし、また、ECBからのクレジットの行の開口部や公共資源の貢献とそのような "ホットスポット"をサポートするための資金を求めている。
ここでは、IMFの提案をフォークします。基金の専門家が救済基金は、銀行預金や問題銀行の介入を保証するためにリソースを提供できるようにするために柔軟に対応できると信じています。別の方法は、ポーズ、共同債務の問題、いわゆるユーロボンドされていますが、 "限られたスケーラブルな。"
レポートは長く蛇行を伴うだろう条約の改革を回避する方法、を求めている。お気に入りは、財政政策のコミットメントとそのリターンを確保するために税収引当金にリンクされている "、その下の成熟のための" euroletrasの減少量である。
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