スペインの主要株式市場は、2012年には4'6%減少
El Ibex 35 se deja un 4,6% en 2012, el nivel más bajo desde 2003
Las grandes Bolsas mundiales terminan el año con subidas superiores al 10%
El Ibex pasa en seis meses de ser el peor selectivo a uno de los mejores del mundo
Agencias Madrid 31 DIC 2012 - 15:22 CET
The IBEX 35 is down 4.6% in 2012, the lowest level since 2003
Major world stock markets end the year with rises of over 10%
The Dow passes in six months to be the worst selective one of the best in the world
Agencies Madrid 31 DIC 2012 - 15:22 CET
The Ibex 35 has yielded 4.6% in the whole of 2012 and has linked its third consecutive year of losses, which led him to set its lowest level since 2003. The index closed the year at 8167 points, down from 8566 to 2011 he fired. On Monday, at the last session of the year, has scored 0.45%. In Europe, all markets closed in positive, except Madrid.
The difficulties of the Spanish economy to return to the path of growth and uncertainty about the financial sector, with the nationalization of Bankia as peak and after the outbreak of the EU bailout to Spanish banks, weighed on investor confidence in equities since the beginning of the year and then retake ground in the second half of the year after rebounding 36.5% since July. Despite this, the index has accumulated three consecutive years of losses after the cut of 13.11% in 2011 and 17% suffered during 2010, the year in which they began to question the viability of public finances in Spain with rating cut below the excellence of triple A.
In 2008 the collapse derived from the collapse of Lehman Brothers led to the collapse of more selective when it lost 39%, which was partially offset by the momentum of the 30% who scored the selective in 2009. The Latin American crisis in 2002 undermined the Ibex one 28.11% and the bursting of the technology bubble in 2000 dogged by selective 21.75%, the second and third biggest crashes in history. In 2012, the Dow had another starring inherited the high volatility of the two previous years. In fact, the club of the 35 most liquid companies had five months to the low startup year, which was offset by the year-end rally. The total balance was a draw: six months in red balanced with as many upward. The best month Ibex scored it in June, when he shot 16.6%, while the largest decrease occurred a month earlier, when precipitated by 13.1% suffered symptoms of volatility in the markets.
With the nationalization of Bankia, the selective yield nearly the barrier of 6,000 points in May. But the bailout of banks allowed to set aside the losses and start a step up from August to the end of the year. Thus, the Dow recovered to March levels, established in 8167.5 points.
Large bags end the year with gains
Most major world stock markets ended the year with gains of over 10%, with Frankfurt the lead with an appreciation of around 30% and Madrid to tail with a decline of 4.66%, according to market data.
The year has been particularly good for three seats, which have seen a rise over 20%. This is the Frankfurt Stock Exchange, which has experienced a rise of 29%, Tokyo with 23%, and Hong Kong with 22.9%.
In Europe, all markets closed in positive, except Madrid. After Germany is Belgium with 18.8%, the Paris Stock Exchange with 15%, with 9.5% Amsterdam, Milan with 7.8% and 5.8% London.
Uncertainties arising from excessive private sector debt in 2011 moved to government debt remained during the past year. Thus, volatility was also extended to the bond market, with the consequent escalation of risk premiums, which the Spanish arrived first overcome the barrier of 600 basis points.
Reflecting the high volatility due to tensions stemming from the sovereign debt crisis in the National Securities Market Commission (CNMV) vetoed short positions on all Spanish shares on July 23. A decision accompanied by the Italian Consob, which indicated that Spain and Italy were in the center of the target investor doubts.
This ban on short sales in Spain has been extended until 31 January, following the approval of the ESMA, the European markets authority. From the operator of the Spanish stock market, BME, insists on pointing out the harmful effects of this veto, such as lack of liquidity in the market and their weight in market efficiency. BME President, Antonio Zoido, has demanded the lifting of the ban on short positions once the restructuring of the financial sector has passed its most difficult times.
The year ended with 17 values in the earnings side. Progress is the most significant annual Grifols scored, an increase of 102.7%, Inditex (+66,72%), Amadeus (+51,97%) and DIA (+37,63%). Also accumulated gains in 2012 IAG (+28,16%), and Technical Reunidas (+26,36%) and Ferrovial (+20,11%). Endesa was consolidated as the best of the great values, with an increase of 6.44%, followed by BBVA (+4,19%) and Santander (+3,92%). Before them were placed Repsol, which was down 35.39%, and Telefonica (-23.87%).
The banking sector was among the hardest hit this year with the changes faced and with the help of the EU in the making. The fall in the prices of securities banks were deeper than the fall of industry profits. The largest decline was for Popular banking (-83.35%), followed by Bankinter (-33.89%), Sabadell (-32.69%) and Caixabank (-30.51%). BBVA and Santander got minor blips, 4.19% and 3.92%, respectively. Bankia, which will cease trading on the Dow as of January 2, accumulated loss of 89.12%, the episode marked by the resignation of Rodrigo Rato and state aid.
The experts consulted by Europa Press expect the Dow to move during the next year about 9,000 points, a trend that ultimately determine whether 2013 is the last year of recession, as the government says Mariano Rajoy. Further provide that the penalty on banks tend to relax in the new year and even opt for some values once solved bank recapitalization requirements.
The market strategist at IG Markets Soledad Pellon believes that the key level of 8630 will be the whole selective, the highest level since March and from which the Dow began to fall sharply. "This level of resistance and bypassed will serve to continue with the increases," he explains, and then place the dimension of relapse in 7600 points. "If the Dow yields below this level, greatly complicate things by making sales is untied," she warns.
Meanwhile, XTB analyst Juan Pedro Zamora was somewhat more optimistic about a reduction in the "dislike" the risk in the equity market, which expects the selective end of 2013 between 9,200 and 10,000 points. "With the standards in place and considering that can give complete set stage of the crisis lasts, the process of a gradual enhancement of the stock will continue in 2013," said Zamora.
The values of the index, which will feature 34 Quoted from January 2 due to the departure of Bankia, the most recommended by analysts by 2013 will DIA, which advanced 37.63% more than in 2012. Also included among the best buys Santander, Inditex, Ferrovial and Viscofan, all for their business plans and diversified.
For XTB analyst shows his preference for the technology sector and financial, in the latter given that some institutions have already met the requirements of recapitalization. "From the side of its stock market valuation and its current price, and their balance sheets seem an interesting opportunity to face next year," he explains.
Pellon, meanwhile, disagrees to recommend the eigenvalues of the energy sector and banking medium, considering that generate "little doubt" and links his behavior as the economy starts to recover. "The recommendations go through very internationalized companies and not so tied to the economic cycle," he qualifies.
0 件のコメント:
コメントを投稿