スペインの2012年の25歳以下の若者の失業率は55%に！
ANÁLISIS
La crisis golpea de nuevo a los jóvenes
José Ignacio Conde-Ruiz 24 ENE 2013 - 13:22 CET
ANALYSIS
The crisis hits young again
José Ignacio Conde-Ruiz 24 ENE 2013 - 13:22 CET
They just released EPA data for the fourth quarter of 2012, we have 5.97 million unemployed. We touched six million and the situation is very serious. From the economic point of view it makes more sense to analyze employment trends, as discouragement and emigration drops the workforce, and job destruction is more intense than the rise in unemployment. Thus, in this quarter have been destroyed 363,000 jobs and the unemployed have increased by 187,000.
During this crisis, which has lasted 21 quarters, have destroyed 3.55 million jobs (17.3% of employment) and the unemployment rate has increased more than 3, standing at 26%. Thus, we face the worst jobs crisis we have experienced, worse than that of 1976, which lasted 35 quarters and destroyed 14.3% of employment and that of 1991 which lasted 10 quarters and destroyed the 8% of employment.
Again, job losses mainly affects young people. Both in this crisis as in that of 1991, nearly 75% of job destruction has affected workers under age 30, whose unemployment rate reached as high as 40%. The unemployment rate in the under 25 just released, the INE is even more alarming, with 55%. The existence of a dual labor market, where flexibility that businesses need to compete lies with temporary contracts, occupied mostly by young people, is the main cause of this drama. Although today the temporary rate is 23%, a historic low, if we do not change the contractual framework will increase as soon as employment growth. This situation is not only unfair to our youth, but also discourages human capital accumulation more attractive and productive activities with low added value. Honestly, at this point I do not understand why we will not bet decidedly experiments and the single contract.
75% of the job losses suffered during the crisis affects children under 30 years
What other differences are between this and previous crises? In the crisis of 1991, 41% of the job losses occurred in the industry while in this crisis, to date, 46% of it is registered in the construction sector. This has led to the latest data as we have 1.16 million unemployed workers under 30 who have not completed the mandatory training because they left school early to work opportunities offered by the construction.
Second, this is the first crisis in which, to the destruction of jobs in the private sector, binds very strongly the public sector. In the 1991 crisis was destroyed just 3.7% of public employment. While so far the crisis has destroyed 9.4% of public employment and, given that the fiscal adjustment in the coming years will be in current spending (health, education, public companies, administrations, etc.), We guess that most of the jobs to be destroyed in the coming quarters will be in the public sector.
We will not leave this until the country attractive for foreign investment
When and how do we get out of this situation? I think, at least in the private sector, we are closer to touch down, not in the public sector is still travel. But really no way out of this crisis until Spain to become an attractive destination for capital inflows to invest in productive and able to employ much of the six million unemployed, mostly young. It is therefore crucial a coherent plan of fiscal consolidation to clear all tax uncertainties and a structural reform plan focused on growth. Unfortunately, both plans are missing in our country since the beginning of the crisis. Furthermore, it is urgent to improve and redefine active policies, prioritizing public spending on measures to be professionally recycled and all these young people from unskilled construction. And finally, none of this will be effective without an institutional framework of the labor market improved. Given our inability to move forward on this front, one can only hope that it is a European initiative, adopting a European labor contract similar to the contract only and encouraged to use European funds to allow our youth, which we put on the road.
* José Ignacio Conde-Ruiz is assistant professor of Fedea Complutense University.
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