欧州委員会は、欧州危機の原因はドイツの輸出超過であるとは、いわなかった??
Bruselas absuelve a Alemania de haber contribuido a la crisis del euro
La Comisión bendice el superávit comercial de los países del centro y del norte de Europa
Pide a Berlín que lo modere “por su propio interés”
Claudi Pérez Bruselas 18 DIC 2012 - 15:50 CET
Brussels absolve Germany of having contributed to the euro crisis
The Commission blesses trade surplus countries of central and northern Europe
Requests that moderate Berlin "for its own sake"
Claudi Perez Brussels 18 DIC 2012 - 15:50 CET
For a country to have deficits need others to have surplus: Berlin and Brussels, in that order, have implemented tough on the periphery of Europe since the crisis began, and are more than five years, to reduce both the south their fiscal deficits (with spending cuts and tax increases) as their trade deficits, with a savage internal devaluation. Brussels takes five years demanding smooth imbalances in the European economy, with an adjustment in the periphery draconian in forcing persevere despite not seen the end of the tunnel. Is the north should not also reduce their surpluses to rebalance the European economy? The European Commission presented a report on Tuesday apparently technician who comes to bless the surpluses of countries like Germany and that appeals to you, in any case, those countries that imbalance moderate "for its own sake" and drive domestic demand for the South to benefit from this policy of expansion.
But beware, the Commission notes that the benefits of this policy change in the surplus countries will have an impact only in the South: "A one-point increase in gross domestic product in domestic demand in Germany has much more traction in countries outside of Europe [as China] than in Spain, "he said at a press conference Vice President Olli Rehn. Load Brussels and against those seeking to stimulate domestic demand Germany to the meager benefits it will have on the south.
Germany has spent 20 years reinventing. While France remained petrified in their structures of the nineties, Germany was revived with a severe drain of their staff: the unions accepted a stagnation of purchasing power in exchange for keeping industrial jobs. The Germans began with Schröder and Merkel continued policy reforms in the labor market and industry aimed at increasing productivity. Consumption stagnated for years. The savings if fired and caused huge trade surpluses in the South (financed with the savings) and fabulous surpluses in the North, propitiated by an Economic and Monetary Union that facilitated the movement of money: "Saving the north heading south, channeled through the banking system, the stagnant demand fueled German Spanish boom ", which also contributed to the interest rate policy of the European Central Bank (ECB), very favorable to Germany, said Jean Pisani-Ferry, Bruegel . Boom in southern, northern sluggish: the infernal mechanism of the crisis was under way and the crisis erupted. Spain, Portugal, Ireland, Greece and company are in full penance: the Commission itself recognizes that these countries have rapidly reduced their imbalances. Spain has gone from a trade deficit of 10% of GDP this year to close at around 2%. How has contributed to the stabilization northern Europe? The surplus is concentrated in six countries of the euro (the inevitable Germany over Holland. Belgium, Finland, Austria and Luxembourg) plus two EU, Denmark and Sweden. These countries had a trade surplus in 2007 average of 5%. Since then there have been "some reduction", according to the Commission: the surplus is now 4% of GDP, and is particularly strong in Germany, Luxembourg and Sweden.
These surpluses "can be considered a problem or not," says the Commission considers necessary in the countries that are growing rapidly life expectancy. "They reflect distortions, inappropriate expectations, market distortion or misperception of risk" and may cause "welfare losses", so that "in the interest of the surplus countries, such mistakes should be corrected or market policies that have led, reducing barriers to stimulate domestic demand, "says Brussels in a hint of criticism. Brussels has demanded that South labor reforms, pension and all kinds of measures to increase the competitiveness of coercive, there is none of that in the report, but a lot of philosophy: "An increase in domestic demand in surplus countries Eurozone trade balance would improve the deficit countries. " But let no one think that this is a panacea: "The impact of that rebalancing should not be overestimated," the Commission study. An increase in demand in Germany would cause health effects in peripheral countries, but much of the stimulus was leaving to third countries. "It would have a much greater impact on foreign countries, including some in surplus [a clear reference to China] in the peripheral economies of the eurozone.
The Commission dares with this advice: "The next events in the two-surplus countries Germany and the Netherlands-are critical." But even that is unlikely to be used to stabilize the eurozone. The Commission expects a wage increase in Germany (after 15 years of loss of purchasing power) to reduce its surplus. "The increase in domestic demand, combined with debt reduction needs, are exerting upward pressure on the Dutch surplus," says the report.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has spent more than a year asking that China and Germany to reduce their surpluses for the United States and the periphery of Europe to recover. In the euro area, to get recommend moderate inflation of 3% to 4% in Germany, Spain and company to regain competitiveness, to ongoing internal devaluations, very painful, to take effect more quickly. Against that possibility, no one was prepared to northern European countries, historically reluctant to inflation, which has permeated the discourse of South sinners. Who thought that the Commission could take a step in that direction, warning that the effort to compensate the periphery would be good for the North stimulate domestic demand, has been a disappointment outstanding today.
"What blocks the recovery is only the lack of intellectual clarity and political will," writes Paul Krugman in Fulfil now with this crisis. The IMF has recently identified 173 cases of countries that have implemented fiscal austerity strictly between 1978 and 2009 and what has been found is that such a policy is followed by an economic downturn and rising unemployment higher than previously believed. "While deficit countries have gotten into savage austerity programs," says Krugman, surplus countries have gotten on their own in the same kind of politics and policies remain expansionary, "which undermines the hope of a export growth in the South, "the Nobel prize. The idea of the Commission is very different: austerity confidence eventually returning to Europe (although the trust does not come back), and stimulate demand in Germany and similar countries will not have major consequences soften ara crossing the desert in those countries.
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