スペインやイタリアの国債を欧州中央銀行が購入するかどうか、欧州通貨政策の分裂の危機と未知数(謎?)
NEGOCIOS
Las incógnitas rodean el euro
Las próximas semanas serán decisivas para la supervivencia y el futuro de la moneda única
El País 2 SEP 2012 - 00:07 CET
BUSINESS
The unknowns surrounding the euro
The coming weeks will be crucial for the survival and future of the single currency
The Country 2 SEP 2012 - 00:07 CET
August tranquility in financial markets does not mean that the uncertainties hanging over the future of the Eurozone in early summer are gone. They have enjoyed just that sort of balm that the president's remarks amounted European Central Bank (ECB) indicating their willingness to take such measures as were necessary to ensure "the irreversibility of the euro". The vagueness has hardly fallen since. A claim to articulate a new procedure designed to intervene in the secondary markets for government debt, upon formal request of the Governments concerned, an answer has emerged in countries with economies less vulnerable to crisis. The most important, of course, is from Germany. But the Finnish authorities, for example, have also expressed their reluctance not only to transactions already taken financial support to some countries, but have admitted considering a scenario of exit from the eurozone.
The fragmentation is no longer just about a possible exit of Greece, an issue that has been taken into account in areas very close to the German government, but determined by an economy like Finland, whose government fears any additional financial support or pooling Eurozone debt that could undermine public its current financial position and expected sustainability of its pension system. The need to support with public resources economies like Italian or Spanish opens scenarios that do not have clear support in some eurozone governments.
The mystery of how to articulate the sort of "rescue children" newly minted, add others of no less significance for the future of the single currency. The troika will announce its position on Greece, and in any case, it will also have to specify the stages leading to the horizon of improving the dynamics of integration within the Eurozone, consisting of the fiscal union, union bank or political union itself. Meanwhile, the German Constitutional Court announced on September 12 its decision on the creation of the European Stability Mechanism (ESM) to replace the current European Financial Stability Fund (EFSF). That one has already been approved by the German Parliament in no way removes the uncertainty.
The particularity of the unknowns in our country is located on the circumstances surrounding the request for support or rescue most likely end up asking the Government. The precariousness of the prices of government bonds issued by the Spanish Treasury, its still too high, requires direct or indirect interventions of the ECB in those markets. If this requires that the government is forced to admit the need for external support, will have to. A different matter must be the conditions imposed by the European authorities and the ability of the Spanish authorities to enforce the adjustment efforts already made its excessive concentration and time. The Spanish economy can not withstand more contractionary actions that mortgage growth recovery.
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