国際通貨基金(IMF)は、国の財政債務を削減するのは、マラソンに似ていると警告
El FMI advierte de que la carrera para reducir la deuda es “un maratón”
El Fondo advierte de que son necesarias políticas de crecimiento para bajar el endeudamiento
El organismo resalta que no basta con recortes temporales o de corto plazo
Miguel Jiménez Madrid 27 SEP 2012 - 16:30 CET
The IMF warns that the race to reduce debt is "a marathon"
The Fund warns that policies are needed to lower debt growth
The agency notes that not enough cuts temporary or short-term
Miguel Jimenez Madrid 27 SEP 2012 - 16:30 CET
What happens when a country's public debt exceeds 100% of GDP? Now that many countries exceed that threshold and others are dangerously close to it, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has asked that question and analyzed the cases that occurred since 1875 in various advanced countries. The main conclusions drawn are three: reduce debt "is a marathon, not a sprint," involves policies of growth and fiscal consolidation should focus on continuing reforms of public finances rather than cuts or tax increases temporary or short-term.
"Today, the main priority should be to complement fiscal consolidation measures to support growth, especially, a very loose monetary policy and structural reforms," the IMF concluded in an analysis published today is a preview of his report Perpsectivas of Economics World to be presented next month at the fall meeting of the Fund.
The IMF notes that public debt in advanced economies has reached its highest level since World War II. Gross debt levels in Japan, United States, Greece, Italy, Portugal and Ireland exceeded 100% of GDP. The low growth rates, persistent budget deficits, the pressure on spending related to the aging population and the weakening of the financial sector question the sustainability of public finances.
But the debt exceeds 100% of GDP is not so rare. The IMF has analyzed 22 advanced countries and in 14 of them the debt exceeded 100% of GDP at some time in the past 150 years. Spain is among them. The debt exceeded 100% of GDP in 1898 and then fell by 27 points over the next 15 years, a period in which growth was 1.1% and annual inflation of 0.3%.
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Of all the episodes analyzed, the country that reduced its debt was Germany with 129 points of GDP in the 15 years following the First World War, but this reduction was due to the hyperinflation of 14 billion% tread left so many in Germany .
Overall, fiscal consolidation and debt reduction takes time, due, among other factors, the primary deficits are difficult to reverse quickly. "The expectations of what can be achieved must be realistic," says the Fund. Since the reduction of debt takes time, the process of fiscal consolidation should focus on long-term structural changes (not temporary measures or short term as the personal income tax surcharge or losing extra pay to staff approved the Spanish Government). The IMF said that the establishment of independent fiscal institutions, such as Belgium, to promote transparency and accountability, can help. The Spanish government will create demand for Brussels for one of these institutions.
The Fund also concludes that, given the weak economic environment, "it is essential to support growth to meet the contractionary effects of fiscal consolidation" and that monetary policy of central banks should provide as much support as possible.
But even with little growth, the debt can be reduced somewhat, as evidence the Italian case of the nineties of the last century and some episodes of the first half of the past century. The more negative the case of Japan, after surpassing the threshold of 100% in 1997, its debt has risen 131 points in the last 15 years by combining low growth and deflation.
As for the implications for individual countries of their findings, the Fund notes that, "for some, like the United States, where the weakness of the financial sector has largely fought and monetary policy provided all possible support, it seems that the conditions are given to fiscal consolidation. " What about Spain? "In other countries, such as the European periphery, where financial sectors are still weak and issues related to monetary union remain unresolved, progress may be limited until these issues are resolved," the Fund.
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