ドイツ連邦銀行は、欧州中央銀行によるスペインとイタリアの国債購入に、圧力を掛け妨害、国債購入のドイツの買い倒れ(損失)を防ぎたい?
La ayuda financiera para España enfrenta al BCE y el Bundesbank
El banco central alemán presiona para frenar el programa de compra de deuda de Draghi
Negocios: La batalla decisiva del euro
Juan Gómez Berlín 3 SEP 2012 - 00:27 CET
Financial aid for Spain faces the ECB and the Bundesbank
The German central bank to curb press purchase program Draghi debt
Business: The decisive battle of the euro
Juan Gomez Berlin 3 SEP 2012 - 00:27 CET
The incipient fall is taking a break in Frankfurt, but economists Central Bank (ECB) will only see the good weather by the windows of the Euro Tower, headquarters of the institution. The ECB overtime to prepare measures to assist countries punished in debt markets. Its president, Mario Draghi, rumpus crisis touched until next Thursday, when a meeting is crucial for the whole euro and, first, to the solvency of Spain. Draghi is expected to expose then the details and conditions of a possible massive purchase of Spanish bonds, a move that has sparked sharp criticism of the Bundesbank, the German central bank, fearing that inflation is threatening fire and saving the Germans .
The ECB provides buy back sovereign debt on secondary markets, Draghi explained last month. Mariano Rajoy and the Italian Prime Minister, Mario Monti, request for months, but the measure conflicted with the government and the central bank (Bundesbank) in Germany. Draghi has found a way to ensure freedom of movement and try to appease ECB Berlin. In obedience to the motto of Angela Merkel, "there will be no compensation benefits." The ECB will only buy bonds of countries applying for European funds intervention of stability in the primary markets. These funds can buy debt directly from the States, but their resources are limited. The ECB, however, has the money machine. But by conditioning his speech to a call for assistance from the fund, Draghi forcing recipient countries to sign a new memorandum of understanding with creditors. That is, to accept new settings and more cuts. After knowing these details, Merkel sent a signal lukewarm support for Draghi.
This support is causing domestic tensions between the government and the Bundesbank. Its president, Jens Weidmann, the only dissenting voice in the ECB Governing Council. The central banker, 44, insists that the debt purchase unlimited hinder reforms he believes necessary for the countries concerned. Like him, many German conservatives consider buying bonds (even in secondary markets) violates EU treaties and predict that cause inflation in Germany. The daily Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung (FAZ), the flagship of this school of thought, just let a day pass without some headline about the dangers facing the Germans' savings.
Exceptional measures
Draghi, meanwhile, wrote a few days ago in a German weekly that sometimes requires monetary stability "measures that go beyond the usual". It is a call for calm in Germany, where the recovery program likely purchase of sovereign debt is causing considerable controversy. Rumors persist that the head of the Bundesbank has raised resign in protest taken by drift Euro Tower.
While the Dow Jones news agency cited "sources within the Bundesbank" to deny that Weidmann threatened to resign, the brainy and populist Bild FAZ abounded on Saturday in history.
Last week Weidmann was at the conference of central bankers in Jackson Hole (Wyoming, USA), where he could listen to his U.S. counterpart, Ben Bernanke, defending his own multibillion debt purchase program. That meeting would have been an ideal place to hold public meeting between Draghi and Weidmann, whom conservatives paint their country as a kind of sheriff who, abandoned by the boss Merkel has faced only a wasteful band came from the south. But finally Draghi did not attend the meeting at the picturesque valleys of the old American West citing scheduling problems.
Amid the controversy, Merkel honors its old nickname, Teflon-Chancellor and adopts a presidential. In a recent interview Draghi supported again and said "independence" of the ECB. Then without blinking, Weidmann expressed support for "our federal banker".
Support for Merkel
A survey of public television in August revealed that 70% of Germans Merkel hopes to end the crisis. The 45% of respondents agreed that not having an opinion about what should the ECB at this time. Above Byzantine quarrels about bonds and risk premiums, Merkel remains the country's most popular leader. A year after election, liberal-conservative critics in the center-right parties in the coalition government lack of leeway before the chancellor.
The Draghi, Weidmann is not the only match is announced for an autumn determinant. Markets have shown unexpectedly quiet during August, but now needs to clarify several points nebulous. For starters, the implementation of permanent stability fund, the provisional works since 2010 - still awaiting a ruling by the German Constitutional Court on 12 September. In addition, funds of stability depend on political decisions. If conditions its intervention to a call for assistance from the fund, the ECB will compromise its vaunted independence. It is not known yet at what point in action on the European Central Bank will have a roof or whether investment.
On the other hand, what if a government requests assistance to European funds, but once reduced their risk premium due to the ECB, does not comply with the agreed conditions? Intervene? International Monetary Fund, as suggested by Jörg Asmussen German banker? Do not even know what those conditions might be. Cuts? Pensions? Reform? Autonomy?
Cost of risk
Given these uncertainties, Spain and Italy are kept under cover. In Italy confident that Spain's appeal for funds and the resulting stability ECB intervention in secondary markets reduce the risk premium in both countries, located in the case of Spain in the 550 basis points in Italy , at 450.
Spain is expected to completely avoid a bailout like Greece or Portugal to accept new conditions in exchange for the purchase of bonds. This is intended to avoid the risk of contagion to Italy, whose economy is too big to be rescued. A complete rescue of Spain entail risks that few want to take. In Germany it is perceived that Rajoy play this card to not ask for more aid to Europe despite the disastrous situation of national and regional accounts.
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