スペインのマイナス経済成長は、経済沈降の速度を増している
OPINIÓN
El tiempo apremia
La normalización las condiciones financieras pasa por utilizar los mecanismos acordados por la UE
Ángel Laborda 23 SEP 2012 - 01:00 CET
el tercero y el cuarto apuntan a caídas superiores.
OPINION
Time is short
Normalization passes financial conditions use the mechanisms provided by the EU
Angel Laborda 23 SEP 2012 - 01:00 CET
While our government continues defoliating Daisy how and when to apply for financial assistance to the Eurogroup, the Spanish economy languishes and still mired in recession. According to the revised national accounts this summer by the INE, GDP began to fall again in the third quarter of 2011, leading to a slight recovery shelved during 2010 and first half of 2011 was not even sufficient to stabilize employment . We, therefore, and four quarters in reverse, and the worst is that the fall is gaining speed. In the second quarter of this year the decline was four tenths of a percent (1.7% annualized rate), and the forecast for the third and fourth point to Upper Falls.
There are many causes of this behavior, but the most important is the financial strangulation is suffering from that in July 2011 it recrudeciera the crisis of European sovereign debt and investors stop providing the necessary funding to an economy that needs much more than other euro zone to be heavily indebted. Certainly, we have not reached the status of the three countries that have had to be rescued so far, as the Treasury, thanks to the ECB provided liquidity to our banks, has been able to continue placing, albeit at very burdensome, their debt issues to finance the deficit for the year and the previous issue maturities. Perhaps this is what has lulled the Spanish and European rulers and prevented them from seeing that the problem was not only the king's funding (Treasury), but that of the subjects (banks, companies and households, ie , the troops). And without troops not win battles. Urge therefore restore funding channels of the economy. And that happens today to request financial support for the European Stability Fund intervenes buying Spanish debt in the primary market and the ECB on the secondary, which is tantamount to assure investors that they will not suffer losses (beyond the risk assessable and manageable) if reinvested in Spain. As it carries with taking a number of conditions, it is understood that the Government will try to negotiate the best terms of the agreement for the general interest of the country, but without delaying the decision unnecessarily. The troops are starving.
Forecasts predict falls in GDP between seven and nine tenths in the third and fourth quarters
The available data for the third quarter refer to July, and some, to August. Almost all of them still show setbacks [see accompanying charts], but in general it appears that the rate of decline of the economy and employment has accelerated in recent months, contrary to analysts' expectations. Now, we must take into account several factors that can worsen the situation. On one hand, it is possible that many spending decisions are ahead of those months to avoid the VAT increase. If so, it is expected that from September of private spending falls are higher than normal. The rise in inflation due to the increase in VAT and energy prices will affect the purchasing power. Confidence indicators, orders to companies and expectations, which generally anticipate the real economic cycle, have suffered significant damage. In this situation of extreme weakness in demand and lack of funding, companies are reducing their productive investments and adjusting templates. Finally, public authorities must accelerate spending cuts if they want to approach the public deficit target of 6.3% of GDP for the whole year.
All this seems to indicate that the situation significantly worse in the remaining months of the year. Specifically, the forecasts of most analysts point to falls in GDP of seven and nine tenths of a percent in the third and fourth quarters, respectively. Thus, the average annual decline would be around 1.6%. It is more difficult to predict what may happen next year, especially when the economy can stabilize and begin to recover. The normalization of financial conditions is essential, and it passes soon use the opportunities offered by the latest mechanisms agreed by the European family.
Angel Laborda situation is director of the Foundation of Savings Banks (Func).
Good data for tourism
Fortunately, all is not bad for the Spanish economy. Merchandise exports grew just accusing weak overseas markets, especially the Europeans, but exports of services show significant growth. Within these, the non-tourism are the most dynamic, but also the tourist go well. Overnight stays by foreigners in hotels maintain a clear upward trend in July and increased 4.3% from the same month last year. This week we have published data of incoming tourists in August, giving a growth of 5%. The average July and August seasonally adjusted data show an increase of 6.4% compared to the average of the previous quarter, after another 8.6% in the quarter. In addition, and contrary to what happens with the Spanish tourists, the average expenditure per tourist increased, at least to compensate for inflation, so the real total expenditure grows at enviable rates for other sectors of the economy.
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