スペインのラホイ大統領は、ドイツ首相のメルケル氏に欧州中央銀行によるスペインとイタリアの国債購入について下駄を預ける?
Rajoy quiere que Merkel defina este jueves su postura sobre el rescate
España busca una intervención que alivie la presión sobre la deuda
Miguel González Madrid 3 SEP 2012 - 00:27 CET
Merkel wants Rajoy Thursday define its position on the bailout
Spain seeks intervention to ease the pressure on debt
Miguel Gonzalez Madrid 3 SEP 2012 - 00:27 CET
On October 19, at the end of the European Council, Rajoy will take the plane back from Brussels to participate in the season finale of Basque and Galician elections. A new bump in the polls, after the fiasco of the Andalusian March, the Government would seriously hit the PP and would call into question the legitimacy of its absolute majority less than a year after it is earned. But what is at stake in Brussels Rajoy is even more important: a possible rescue, hard or soft, to reopen the funding tap for the Spanish economy in exchange for new and more drastic adjustments. Both run parallel processes, but are closely related. What nobody dares to predict is how the influence one another.
After interviews last week with President of the European Council, Herman Van Rompuy and French President François Hollande, the moment of truth will come next Thursday when German Chancellor Angela Merkel, visit La Moncloa. Government sources expect Merkel will clarify whether or not that Spain formally request a bailout, since the messages arriving from Berlin, depending on who the caller, are contradictory.
However, all eyes will be watching that day not Madrid, but in Frankfurt, where he meets the Governing Council of the European Central Bank (ECB). At that appointment should be realized what "extraordinary measures", in the words used by its president, Mario Draghi, in an article in Die Zeit, is willing to take to stop the bleeding of debt in Spain and Italy. And above all, what are the conditions to resume its bond-buying program in the secondary market, interrupted since March. Rajoy has conditioned a new bailout request to the fine print of the offer of the ECB: who is willing to do and what to change.
Draghi letters
Despite the excitement aroused by this conclave, government sources doubt that Draghi teach all their cards. "It has been isolated to the Bundesbank [the most reluctant to depart from the ECB orthodoxy] and continue forward, but it will not give a blow on the table", promise the same sources.
This, among other reasons, because Merkel has asked not to do anything to influence the debate in the German Constitutional Court held on the Treaty Establishing the European Stability Mechanism (ESM), whose verdict should be published the next day 12 . The Constitutional keeps blocked the entry into force of the ESM, a firewall of half a billion euros since its entry into force only when ratifying produce 90% of its capital and Germany accounts for more than 27%. The Spanish Government and the European Commission are confident that the German Constitutional treaty not lie but, at most, strengthen internal mechanisms of parliamentary control, as it did with the bailout of Greece.
Once Germany unblock the ratification of the ESM, this could start acting in October, complementing the ECB intervention. The first buy bonds of Spain and Italy in the primary market (ie in Treasury auctions) and the second, in the secondary (sales between private agents).
Intervention, no rescue
The Government is not seeking a bailout to Greece or Portugal style, with the opening of credit lines from the EU and IMF, and his departure from the capital market, but an intervention to relieve the pressure on Spanish debt and relax cost (Friday topped 550 points differential with Germany) to reasonable levels.
The Government argues that this bailout should not include more soft requirements meeting the deficit targets agreed with Brussels and for the state (4.5% in 2013 and 2.8% in 2014), but more vigilance exhaustive by famous black men.
While Spain fumbles the terms of a possible bailout, the European Commission has stepped on the accelerator of fiscal union and bank, with the aim that the new European supervisory authority bank, in which the maximum role ECB will take a walk in January, allowing the 100,000 million to recapitalize Spanish banks lend directly to banks, without the approval of the State.
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