スペイン政府は閣僚理事会で2013年の国家予算を了承し、債権(国債)に支払う金利は、公務員の人件費を上回る!
LOS PRESUPUESTOS DEL AÑO PRÓXIMO
El gasto por intereses de la deuda superará al de personal en 2013
La partida destinada a financiar los préstamos será mayor que la del empleo público por primera vez desde, al menos, 1995
GRÁFICO El aumento de la partida de intereses
Jesús Sérvulo González Madrid 23 SEP 2012 - 00:00 CET
NEXT YEAR'S BUDGET
Interest expense on the debt will exceed that of staff in 2013
Heading to finance loans will be greater than the public employment for the first time since at least 1995
GRAPHIC Increased item interest
Jesus Gonzalez Sérvulo Madrid 23 SEP 2012 - 00:00 CET
On Thursday the government will approve, for the second time this year, annual accounts. Convene an extraordinary Council of Ministers to approve the State Budget for 2013. A lace that looks set to be the most complicated of recent times: the economy will remain in recession, which will affect tax revenues. And finally to close the circle of the impossible, also narrows the deficit limit allowed and rising interest accumulated debt. The result? Heading reserved to pay the interest on the debt will be greater than all the line to pay staff across the State Administration consolidated. For the first time, at least since 1995, happens.
COUNTRY
The increase in public debt and the high level at which stands the risk premium driving interest expense, the game will grow more next year, 9.114 million more than in 2012 (when it was already 28.913 million euros) , almost a point of GDP. In total, this charge will be more than 38,000 million euros. Consolidated staff costs (Central Administration, Social Security and autonomous bodies) budgeted for this year were already below that figure, as it was of 33.151 million euros. Thus, the forecast of expenditure made by the Government to pay interest for the first time exceed what goes to pay the salaries of the public servants, at least since 1995, the last year for which records appear Budget on the website of the Ministry of Finance. Interest expense in 2013 will be double that budgeted in 2009 for the crisis and even surpass also for the first time what the government intended to pay unemployment benefits.
The Government must make an additional adjustment of 25,000 million
The main purpose of the accounts of 2013 goes to meet the deficit target sacrosanct committed to Brussels. The Central Administration and Social Security have set a limit set deficit of 3.8% of GDP, which means that next year the difference between expenses and income may not exceed budget of 40,778,000, about 7,000 million less than 2012. The task is complicated because they are provided to the public expenditure of the central government to grow by 9.2% to 126.792 million, according to the spending ceiling approved by the Government in mid-July. The state contribution to Social Security will also increase in some 4,300 million, to take supplements of minimum social security and to support the additional pension expense.
To all this is added that the crisis continues to rage and the outlook is bleak. The latest IMF forecasts estimate that the Spanish economy will shrink by 1.2% next year, which could force the government to change the macroeconomic picture, the benchmark figures to calculate the budget, which envisaged a fall of 0 , 5% of GDP.
Another nut turns to accounts
If costs rise and revenues are down counter, how can balance the books? The Government has already taken numerous tax increases savings and the effect will last until 2013, but has yet to give a new twist to the public accounts if you want to meet the deficit target. For next year, in addition to the rise in interest rates, facing a rise in spending on pensions and unemployment benefits for the bad behavior that is expected in the labor market. In total, the government will face an additional adjustment of about 25,000 million, according to the experts consulted.
The Minister of Economy and Competitiveness Luis de Guindos, said yesterday that despite the sensitivity of the situation, the bank bailout will come from the European Union, of up to 100,000 million, will be only for banking. If, as expected Guindos, only spend 60,000 million, the rest will go to other purposes.
Mariano Rajoy with Minister of Economy, Luis de Guindos / Alvaro Garcia
"The 2013 budget will be more difficult because there are less margin, with recessionary conditions and with fewer instruments to act," concedes Miguel Angel Garcia, director of the research bureau of CCOO. The Executive Rajoy measures implemented this year that will be difficult to use in 2013, as the abolition of the Christmas bonus of officials (although in extreme cases could re-delete) or a tax amnesty. "The degrees of freedom in spending cuts are very limited, the Government will have no choice but to touch pensions," notes Luis Caramés, Professor of Applied Economics at the University of Santiago. "The budgets are dynamic games with as pensions, unemployment and personnel costs, and the remaining chapters is very little room," agrees Garcia.
Increase revenue
Among those approved by the Government in subsequent adjustment plans and included in the two-year plan 2013-2014, there is a significant tax package. As the increase in VAT, which is expected to raise more in 2013 7.834 million in the current year, although half will go into the coffers of communities by financing system. The income tax hike will add another 1.925 million, to share with the regions, for the removal of the tax credit for home purchases from next year and the review of other deductions. Changes in income tax this year will mean additional income in 2013 of 2,450 million. Among the new tax next year is the new capital gains tax that President Mariano Rajoy announced earlier this month. Is also expected to approve new environmental taxes, as Rajoy admitted.
The financial cost to the budget in 2013 will double in 2009
Although you can no longer apply a new tax amnesty, one of the aces that keeps the government in the manga is the increased penalties for tax evasion and labor. So limited cash transactions and are excluded from the system of modules that can be certain fraudulent activities in order to reduce the informal economy and input more.
The experts consulted believe that there is hardly room for further fiscal measures beyond these. "It seems that the path of increases in the tax burden is nearly exhausted," says Caramés, who committed to eliminate deductions and tax credits. José Ignacio Conde-Ruiz, deputy Fedea, says: "In the short term it is essential to eliminate income tax deductions. For example, permanently remove the deduction for housing for all citizens would be 5,000 million, removing the deduction for lottery prizes, 1,800 million. "
Another pit to public sector workers
Personnel expenses, which includes the cost of paying salaries of officials, has continued to decrease during the crisis. It is one of the most important items of the budget and the government is squeezing the possibilities to save in this chapter. In 2012, the year in which 33.151 million is budgeted for personnel, be suspended Christmas bonus to staff. He has removed the days of unrestricted personnel working for the government. Both have been removed as the grizzled moscosos (by seniority). Also has cut economic conditions of temporary disability. When a civil servant is low, charge less. The latest development has been the
freeze on public job, you will save 1,800 million for all administrations. And it is more than likely to refreeze 2013 the salaries of officials
Cutting benefits noted in the public purse
The decree of July cuts reduced unemployment benefits from the sixth month for new beneficiaries. This means that in the new year, who lost his job in July and therefore take half a year without charge less work: 50% of their salary instead of 60% as now. It was the only measure that the government took to lower spending on protection for what was budgeted in 2012 and 28.805 million euros. Conditions also much hardened to access welfare benefits and eliminated bonuses for recruitment. With the whole package, as the numbers of Finance, total savings in 2013 is 5,750 million euros. The main objective of the Government is bridling the budget that has grown with the crisis, a game that, as is being demonstrated this year (and shatters the official forecasts), is out of control.
Farewell to the tax incentive to buy home
Next year will end the advantage of the income tax deduction for the purchase of the residence. In a turnabout, the Government decided to abolish this tax credit in January after the recover-the previous Socialist government had removed in 2011 -. Another measure that more expensive real estate purchase is the VAT rise housing from the current 4% (super-reduced VAT) to 10%. The previous Socialist government had lowered to revive the real estate sector. Until July this reduction has come at a cost of 710 million euros for the public coffers. Also this year is over 50% exemption for gains on the new home purchase approved by the current government in May. It assumes that only those who purchase a home through December will have a 50% reduction in the capital gains tax if sold.
The debate over a tax on transactions busátiles
The Ministry of Finance has on the table a draft to approve a tax on certain financial transactions that could raise 2,000 million. The document would tax stock trading. "It is being studied to implement a charge for some operations, but not to international financial transactions (such as currencies or derivatives) which is properly the Tobin Tax. We study for the sale of shares ", explained last week from the Ministry.
But the tug of war that keep the Treasury has slowed the project promoted by Cristobal Montoro, Minister of Finance. Government sources explained that the Ministry of Finance opposes approve this new tax. However, the pulse is maintained between the two departments and will have to wait until next week to see if finally included in the Budget for 2013.
来年度予算
負債に対する利子は、2013年にスタッフのそれを超えてしまう
ローンを融資するために見出しは少なくとも1995年以来、初めて公の雇用よりも大きくなる
GRAPHIC増加アイテム関心
イエスゴンザレスSérvuloマドリード23 SEP 2012 - 00:00 CET
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