IMFは、ドイツは"緊縮財政に'行き過ぎを回避を推奨
El FMI recomienda a Alemania “evitar excesos” con la austeridad
El organismo rebaja a la mitad su previsión de crecimiento hasta el 0,3%.
Pide a Berlín que favorezca la llegada de inmigrantes a su mercado laboral
Juan Gómez Berlín 3 JUN 2013 - 16:38 CET
The IMF recommends Germany "avoid excesses' to austerity
The body cut in half its growth forecast to 0.3%.
Asks Berlin to favor the arrival of immigrants to its labor market
Juan Gomez Berlin 3 JUN 2013 - 16:38 CET
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) detects edges "vulnerable" in the German banking system. After meeting in Berlin with representatives from government, IMF economists explained in a press conference that while all the German banks has improved "continuously" the quality of their capital and enjoy "favorable financing conditions" , the country's banking system remains exposed to risks in unstable sectors as "the maritime, international real estate and some foreign assets" dangerous. Germany needs "structural reforms" to "develop their growth potential," says the one hand the organization. But on the other, its economists warn of the "importance of avoiding excesses in the consolidation." That is, believes that Germany will be more calm and deficit reduction loosen somewhat the austerity policy advocated by Chancellor Angela Merkel.
The report by the IMF is overall positive. The text and starts well: "The strong fundamentals may expect a recovery of economic activity in Germany for the second half of 2013".
But that does not stop the international body recess to 0.3% growth forecast German GDP in 2013, half of what was predicted in January. The correction is due to the problems facing the eurozone and its influence on Europe's largest economy, whose main driver is exports. The reduction in IMF forecasts coincides with the trend of the German government itself, which fell from 0.7% to 0.5% its outlook for 2013. For next year, Berlin expects GDP to grow by more than 1%.
Find the IMF that "credit growth remains moderate, although financial stability is improving" over recent years. The cause is the "weak loan demand" caused by the remaining uncertainties in the Eurozone.
The "slight increase in public spending" is expected this year, according to the IMF, "appropriate". But they warn against excesses in austerity. Good tax collection data, which have "exceeded expectations thanks to the unexpected strength of the labor market and the low interest environment, let the hand relax austerity" he says. Then the report warns against possible (and quite unlikely) excess expenditure in the field.
The risk, of course, come from the weakest regions hit by a Eurozone recession "if not relieved insecurity and gradual recovery fails the rest of the euro area", the German economy could go crawling levels minimal growth, as it has done in recent quarters. The IMF warns that, this time, the cooling affect the German labor market. The unemployment rate in Germany is now below 7%. Experts do not rule this dead calm will spread worldwide, "increasing the risks" for Germany.
IMF economists propose to Berlin to take action against the looming aging population, facilitating the arrival of immigrants, lowering taxes for the least gain and encouraging women to enter the labor market. Recommendations are very similar to those that came this month from Brussels, signed by the European Commission.
0 件のコメント:
コメントを投稿