スペインの不良債権で破綻して国有化された銀行の救済融資は損失になる危険が大きい、Banco de Valenciaは、60億0000'0000ユーロ、Catalunya Bancは、120億4800万0000ユーロ、NovaCaixaGalicia Bancは、89億8100万0000ユーロで、合計270億2900万0000ユーロのスペイン政府(スペイン国民の税金)の融資が損失になる可能性が非常に大きい。BANKIAは、270億0000'0000ユーロ?が損失になる可能性?
La mayor parte del rescate se perderá
El principal riesgo es para los 27.000 millones de NCG, Catalunya Banc y Banco de Valencia
Íñigo de Barrón Madrid 2 DIC 2012 - 01:01 CET
Most of the bailout will be lost
The main risk is to the 27,000 million NCG, Catalunya Banc and Banco de Valencia
Barron Íñigo Madrid 2 DIC 2012 - 01:01 CET
Brussels has decided to hasten the end of aid entities, causing huge losses to the state and, therefore, citizens. On Wednesday the European Commission established the harsh conditions have to assume bailed institutions with 37,000 billion European rescue in addition to amounts previously injected by the State: Bankia, NCG Banco (which operates under the brand Galicia Novagalicia), Catalunya Banc and Banco de Valencia.
Of this money, 18,000 million will go to clean up the assets of Bankia, an entity "in restructuring," according to Brussels. José Ignacio Goirigolzarri, group president, promised "life left" to return aid and not lose all the money. However, the future of the rest of the money, 19,000 million and the other 8,000 million injected by the State Fund for Orderly Bank Restructuring (FROB) is just dark.
Brussels considers Banco de Valencia, Catalunya Banc and Novagalicia entities "in resolution", so must be sold soon.
The EU mid-month inject 4,500 million to Banco de Valencia, which has been sold for one euro to La Caixa. This entity already had the FROB 1,000 million and, in addition, an estimated additional 500 million may lose the future default of the loans covered with an asset protection scheme (APS). In total, 6,000 million that taxpayers will have to repay with their taxes.
Experts believe that the money got by the State and Europe will not be saved
Meanwhile, Joaquín Almunia, Commissioner for Competition of the European Union, decided that I needed Catalunya Banc 9080 million, although the Catalan club already had in its balance of 2.968 million FROB. A total of 12.048 million at stake for taxpayers. The experts consulted considered that "it would be an achievement that the government got to a bank, Santander perhaps, to stay with this organization for a euro. Given that the capital deficit of this entity as Oliver Wyman was 10,825,000 and the Bank of Valencia has been sold with the reinforcement of the EPA, it will not be an easy task ", since in this case and that of NCG Banco no asset protection.
Finally, there is the case of NCG Banco, will receive 5.425 million. In addition, 3,556,000 conserved public, totaling 8.981 million. The bank will sell, according to the Bank of Spain, after Catalunya Banc, "when markets permit", but probably next year. The company plans to sell its subsidiary EVO Bank, which operates out of Galicia, Asturias and Leon, which could reduce the capital hole in an unspecified amount.
In short, without Bankia, are at stake in these three entities 27,029,000, of citizens who already have lost almost 6,000 million and 21,000 more are at risk, of which few can save.
And yet to know the state injection in group BMN, Liberbank and Caja Duero Spain, which will be known in December. And all this, without waiting for any loss in Bankia, which is an optimistic view.
The other big question is what can be recovered when injected into Bankia
Rafael Pampillon, economics professor at IE Business School, points out that "institutions have been nationalized. They have injected billions of public money that will end up in the hands of a private buyer. I think it would have been better if he had stayed the state as a shareholder, or merge all entities in Bankia, to try to retrieve something when sold. In the UK banks receiving aid are required to give credit, but in Spain not even that. "
This is the next problem. What business are going to do while waiting for their end? Punished by Brussels institutions should seek income despite cutting 8,500 jobs and 1,500 offices.
Tornabell professor at ESADE, predicts that both Bankia, as Catalunya Banc as Novagalicia "lose deposits because the holders of the subordinated debt and preferred not maintain their savings if they suffer significant losses."
Jose Carlos Diez, chief economist Intermoney, believes that it will be very difficult "to hold the income in a 2013 and be depressive as selling assets and offices." Nobody doubts that European aid will mean a boost in capital, solvency and liquidity, but thanks to the ECB, which is temporary cash loans, which do not encourage bankers to lend. Javier Díez-Gimenez, professor of economics at IESE, not expected to increase the credit institutions bailed, "except Public Administration. Brussels measures are harsh but necessary. We return to a sector with seven large entities, there is no choice. "
Bankia expected revenue raising financial capital and Sareb
As noted Tornabell, the model of the old Spanish savings banks "recalls the German model: municipal entities, with family business, with nothing wholesaler".
Bankia: more income, but financial
The entity headed by Goirigolzarri has announced its 2012-2015 strategic plan that includes the 20% reduction in average assets, while expected to raise gross profit. How? With 24,600 million to get the bank to sell bad assets and 24,500 million of public money they have on the balance sheet, sources of financial return will exceed the assets they have now. Sources of support entity that gross margin will fall in 2013 and will reach 4,100 million this year, but these are the income until 2015.
Another lever will reduce mortgages and corporate loans replace. The difference between the two are 4-point margin.
La Caixa assumes only 34% of the credit risk of the Bank of Valencia
The key is how to prevent the loss of business that will entail the closure of 1,100 branches. Of these, 700 were provided by low profitability. Especially not had credit and deposits. The remaining 400 if they involve risk of loss of deposits, but try to minimize it to "limit the effect." "The plan is realistic, but the environment is very complicated," he summarized.
La Caixa is left with the Banco de Valencia with 6,000 million
The Banco de Valencia has avoided liquidation, but at a very high cost. The purchase of La Caixa will have an initial invoice of 5,500 million to taxpayers, reports Ignacio Zafra. To this must be added the cost of insurance that will cover 72.5% of the possible future default, which the Bank of Spain will be 500 million more. In total, the sale will involve the disbursement of 6,000 million in losses involving direct aid to the state, increase the deficit, and a burden on the citizens. The Government and Brussels insist, to liquidate the bank was more expensive, up to twice, but do not provide accurate data and explanations.
Sources pointed out that the Bank of Spain to La Caixa will cover 6,400 million in loans and guarantees to SMEs.
The loan portfolio of Banco de Valencia amounts to 15,227,000. The bank will transfer the bad bank toxic assets valued at 5,500 million. This means that the credit will be protected 66% of the portfolio. According to Iñigo Vega, a veteran analyst of the British firm Nau Securities, if the Bank of Valencia needed capital 3,500 million, according to the worst scenario of Oliver Wyman tests, and have injected 5,500, "has a positive equity 2,000 million. To this we must add another 1,000 million of tax credits that will activate La Caixa. That is, the buyer gets 3,000 million capital ". Vega notes that the Bank of Valencia could lose 700 million for the transfer of assets to the bad bank, so that the buyer "would be a capital increase of 2.300 million." This expert believes that "we must congratulate Caixabank by this agreement." "I think this deal could be a compensation for the acquisition of Banca Civica in terms not as favorable," he adds.
The operation will also involve the dismissal of 50% of workers remaining when ERE is now underway. The template will increase from just over 2,000 employees until June to just over 800. The closure of offices will be even greater: 90% of the network will be closed, according ensures
The operation saved another potential benefit to the buyer: the key to getting control of Aguas de Valencia. La Caixa is the second largest shareholder of Aguas de Barcelona (24.26%). This has, in turn, 33% of Aguas de Valencia and historical interest for taking control. By buying the Bank of Valencia, La Caixa will stay at the same time with 49.99% of Agval Investments, which owns 60.68% of Aguas de Valencia. That is, done with full control.
The current leaders of this society, the family Calabuig, initially maintained control of society by the convoluted arrangements agreed at the time shareholders in Agval Investments. But this balance can be upset by the investigation of the National Court on predation suffered by the Bank of Valencia. In the process are charged several Calabuig family members, including the current president of Aguas de Valencia, Eugenio Calabuig.
Catalunya Banc: sanitized for sale
Current Catalunya Banc managers have focused most of their energies this year releasing brick shed weight, the origin of the evils of the old box, and especially looking for a buyer, reports Lluís Pellicer.
Anyone who acquires the entity who will be faced with a restructuring of hardness in the bank no doubt. However, the priority now is to stabilize your body balance, first recapitalizándose with Brussels 9080 million and transferring its assets to the bad bank toxic worth 9,300 million. Of these, 6,300 million in loans and foreclosed assets 3000 million. Catalunya Banc today has assets of 77,000 million.
Plans to privatize the company, now controlled 89.7% by the Fund for Orderly Bank Restructuring (FROB), stopped before the summer. So were interested in the former case: Santander, BBVA, Popular, Sabadell, Kutxabank and JC Flowers. Now, industry sources suggest that Santander has emerged as the leading candidate to take over the bank headed Adolf everything.
Who the buyer wants to find the entity during the first quarter of 2013, also determine the future of the branch network, already lowered by 30.4% through the first half of the year, and staff, who also cut in 24.5%.
One of the headaches of the entity, however, are the 510 million in preferred shares that the entity is allocated among its customers. The bank has begun to provide a solution to some customers who, by agreement with the entity, may apply to the Government for an arbitration award issued thereon. According to Catalan government sources, there are already a thousand requests in progress and so far, the awards are right customer, but since the entity will insist that the buyer who must give an outlet to the holders of preferred stock.
Storm by selling Novagalicia
The entity headed by José María Castilian Brussels hosted the commandments with some reassurance. The deadline for the sale of NCG Banco, which operates in Galicia as Novagalicia, spacious (five years) and EUR 5.425 million would enable injection, the bank said, "return to profitability" in 2013. With that margin, Castilian intended to go ahead with the project, sponsored by the president of the regional government, Alberto Nunez Feijoo, to seek a buyer, it is assumed that among foreign-investment funds that prevented absorption Novagalicia Bank (NCG) and ensure would continue as an independent entity, reports Xosé Hermida.
But on Friday, the storm was stirred in Galicia after the Bank of Spain sources divulged its intention to auction the company next year. The news sparked nervousness in NCG and the Galician PP and Feijóo himself-who was in full-investiture debate for the supervisor intervened matizase your ad. The truth is that the document sent from Brussels only alludes to the Galician bank should start looking buyer "in late July 2015" and have the transaction closed "no later than the end of December 2016." And that cling team Xunta Castilian and to ensure that your plan continues.
With the European injection, combined with previous contributions FROB, NCG has absorbed and 9,000 million euros of public money. His immediate plan is to move toxic assets to a bad bank, Banco EVO-selling brand in the rest of Spain, and from the capital of 170 companies of diverse cultures.
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