欧州委員会がスペインの2013年の財政赤字削減目標を4'5%から6'5%に緩和し、2016年まで財政赤字削減目標を国内総生産の3ー4%に延長、延期するのは、スペイン経済にとっては、経済成長を促す好機,ほっと一息。
EDITORIAL
De vuelta a la realidad
Dos años más para cumplir el déficit favorecerían el crecimiento y aliviarían tensiones autonómicas
El País 23 ABR 2013 - 00:00 CET
EDITORIAL
Back to reality
Two years to meet the deficit would promote growth and alleviate regional tensions
The Country 23 ABR 2013 - 00:00 CET
From a pragmatic perspective, few European decisions are so important to the Spanish economy as that Brussels supports a deficit target between 6 and 6.5% in 2013 and granted two more years, until 2016, to reach the final correction of the deficit at 3%. This is exactly what is about to happen. If new conditions mentioned are realized, the consequences for the Spanish economy can not but be beneficial: more scope to use fiscal policy on growth strategies, less internal pressure to the regions and less tense perception of investors or markets, who, of course, felt that some adjustment impositions were difficult to apply and to get.
The example of Spain has been instrumental in promoting this correction or modulation extreme austerity that, whichever way you look at it, has failed. Spending cuts implemented by the government have been a serious disappointment. Neither have managed to reduce the deficit in the intended target (Eurostat yesterday passed a deficit of 6.98% of GDP, 10.6% taking account of aid to banks), or have managed to stabilize the debt, or generated signs of recovery. In fact, the economy minister, Luis de Guindos, has already announced that the contraction of GDP in 2013 will be 1.5% instead of 0.5% initially moderated.
Previous Editorials
Forgotten growth (14/04/2013)
A realistic assessment (20/03/2013)
Forecast recession (03/01/2013
Government Rectification is not complete. It's hard to believe the economy will have a "slight increase" according to his statement in 2014. The minister would have to explain what factors underlying this forecast. The output of the crisis may be in V, but it can happen, in view of the zero pulse of credit, the economy remains stagnant conditions next year.
As already noted at the time, and as reiterated by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in its latest reports, the austerity policies implemented in very short periods imperatively aggravate the recession of the countries with the least credibility of its debt and exacerbate discontent of citizens. For Europe, a shift calculated that, if sustained politically for some time, can mean a radical correction of economic policy that will benefit other countries, such as France or Portugal. Accompanied because the ECB, the euro will cease to be an islet between economic areas that have invested in one way or another by the expansion.
A new scenario would also have its dangers. The first and foremost is that, by forgetting the radical austerity policies also forget moderate austerity strategies. The adjustment of the deficit targets precisely because they would be more affordable, should be strictly observed. The margins for stimulus policies should be exploited sensibly, without favoring new Bubbles sectoral or geographical.
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