スペイン国立銀行によると、スペインの2013年1月ー3月の経済成長(沈降)率はー0'5%で、年間ー2'0%の経済成長(沈降)。2012年10月ー12月は、ー0'8%で、年間ー1'9%。スペインの経済の景気後退は2012年12月より減少傾向。
El Banco de España calcula que la recesión se frenó en el inicio de 2013
El PIB retrocedió un 0,5% en el primer trimestre, tres décimas menos que a finales de 2012
La caída del consumo de las familias se atenúa tras los efectos de la subida del IVA
El sector exterior reduce su aportación positiva por el recrudecimiento de la crisis en Europa
Guindos admite ahora que el PIB caerá mucho más de lo esperado
El País Madrid 23 ABR 2013 - 12:05 CET
Fuente: Banco de España / EL PAÍS
The Bank of Spain estimates that the recession slowed at the start of 2013
The GDP fell by 0.5% in the first quarter, three tenths less than the end of 2012
The fall in household consumption dims after the effects of the increase in VAT
The foreign sector reduces its positive contribution by the intensification of the crisis in Europe
Guindos now admits that GDP will fall more than expected
The Country Madrid 23 ABR 2013 - 12:05 CET
The recession in the Spanish economy since late 2011 slowed at the start of 2013, according to the Bank of Spain, which calculates a decline of 0.5% of gross domestic product (GDP) between January and April compared with December. The rate of contraction in the first quarter is three tenths less than in the last months of 2012, when the economy dropped by 0.8% quarter on quarter, marking the biggest drop since the Great Recession of 2009. According to the supervisor says, the "contraction pattern" of activity continued in this period, although at a "more muted". Compared to the same period in 2013, the cut of GDP is 2%, one tenth more than the decline experienced in the fourth quarter of 2012.
This moderation, supervisor explains in its latest Economic Bulletin, for April, was due to private consumption fell much less than in the final stretch of 2012. The reason for this was because they overcome the negative effects it had on families spending the VAT increase and the elimination of extra pay of officials. Specifically, consumption rose from 2% contraction between October and December last year to fall by 0.3% in the first quarter of 2013. With this slight recovery, domestic demand fell by 0.8%, less than 2% in the previous quarter.
But it will be difficult to regain positive growth rates in this section. "The reduced capacity of household savings in a context of declining disposable income, falling wealth, persistently uncertain job outlook and high debt leaves little room for the recovery of consumption in the short term," said the Bank of Spain.
The figure unveiled on Tuesday the Bank of Spain coincides with the advancement which featured a few days ago the Minister of Economy, Luis de Guindos, who advanced a fall in GDP of between 0.5% and 0.6% . However, the lead agency Luis Maria Linde missed by two tenths to advance figure for the last quarter of 2012. So while predicted a decline of 0.6%, the final data of the INE rose 0.8% contraction between October and December.
Employment side also fall slows over the last months of 2012, although the recovery is minimal and the rate of decline is still high. Specifically, it passes from a fall of 4.7% to 4.5%. This Thursday, the EPA published the first quarter.
As for the deficit, which closed 2012 at 10.6% of GDP or 7% excluding the bank bailout, warns that the weakness in revenue from indirect taxes and social contributions "illustrates about the difficulty involved in the deficit reduction in adverse cyclical situation. "
In this regard, the Government on Friday approved a new package of reforms to achieve to bring the deficit below the 3% limit imposed by Brussels. This, however, will have two years later than planned in order to encompass the cuts to a recovery of growth. Indeed, the minister has already ruled Guindos new measures "significant" austerity and advocated by seeking a balance between adjustment and growth.
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