キプロス金融危機は、金持ちのドイツを中心にした北半欧州諸国と、経済危機の南半欧州諸国との間に亀裂を大きくする
Chipre agrava las fisuras políticas del euro
Bruselas teme que el rescate chipriota descarrile por la falta de estructuras en Nicosia para aplicar el ajuste y alerta de los riesgos por la fractura en el Eurogrupo
El fracaso institucional europeo
Claudi Pérez Bruselas 30 MAR 2013 - 21:29 CET
Cyprus aggravates political fissures euro
Brussels fears that the rescue Cypriot derailed by lack of structures in Nicosia to apply the setting and alert the fracture risk in the Euro
The European institutional failure
Claudi Perez Brussels 30 MAR 2013 - 21:29 CET
Prospects for Europe generally between Pangloss and Cassandra: between security and prophecy dismal dull. Just a few years ago, the Union was a victim of what Felipe González defined as a "sweet decadence" and sometimes prolonged acute euro crisis has swung the pendulum toward apocalyptic predictions. The Union now has the worst of both visions: not there is already a two-speed Europe, is that it is increasingly evident that there are two Europes. One, the North imposed its law and hardly notice the crisis other running headlong into a depression. In these rescue comes to a country that accounts for 0.3% of the population and 0.2% of the GDP of the euro and turns everything upside down: Brussels warns that the Cyprus crisis "exacerbated the divide between North and South, between Germany and the other, "said a senior source community, hidden behind an anonymity that is the only way to make self-criticism in the European capital.
The markets have remained relatively calm and euro levees have worked for now. But the rescue Cypriot dramatically brought to the surface issues that have been incubating for years. The destabilizing weight of Germany in European affairs is nothing new. The current difficulty is that Germany can not avoid destabilizing Europe, however good their intentions, which are sometimes very questionable. Cyprus synthesizes all that: euro partners, after a tug melodramatic flourishes, have agreed to the rescue and thus have avoided the worst case scenario, an output of the euro with a devastating contagion. There will Wagnerian apocalypse. But there has been a crescendo of tension that threatens to move progressively from economics to politics.
That is the risk that the Europeans begin to think about the possibility of a political motive behind economic skid. "Efforts to rescue the euro are destroying the fabric that holds the Union. Leaders, especially Germany, should ensure that the remedy is worse than the disease: the austerity imposed on the periphery and rescue model to be Cyprus are in danger of triggering a reaction that endangers the integration European, "says Charles Kupchan, an analyst at the Council on Foreign Relations, one of the most prestigious testing centers worldwide. The sociologist Norman Birnbaum summarizes the reasons for the renewed American pessimism about Europe: "The combination of executive-minded politicians, economists prisoners of their models and unrealistic models with the democratic deficit of the EU has brought a completely predictable disaster . And the worst may be to come. "
Cyprus came bubble a decade, with a hypertrophied and banking institutions that did not want to know where the money came from: tax limbo. Greece pricked that balloon. The bank sought riskier returns in Athens, and the losses imposed on Greek bonds (another German decision) condemned bankrupt the entire country. Europe came to the rescue and return of slimming usual, but this time also with some elements "experimental" as defined Nikos Anastasiadis President. Cyprus must dismantle its indefensible business model: the limbo of hell. And for that closed entities and impose losses on shareholders and debt of poorer quality, but also high quality debt and deposits of more than 100,000 euros, after reaching even flirting with taxing less than 100,000.
Germany can not avoid destabilizing the euro, despite good intentions
This agreement opens a new stage in the exciting-in the sense of the Chinese curse-European crisis. For the first time a parliament rebels against Northern creditors. For the first time the leaders decree that high quality debt and uninsured deposits foot the bill, which has resulted in a logical punishment in European banking markets and breeds distrust of savers, who wonder if they are safe in Europe. And for the first time there was an open confrontation in the political arena, with risque statements after a sensational German surprise attack through the Dutch Jeroen Dijsselbloem, president of the Eurogroup.
The glue that binds the eurozone is mutual trust between its members, and this week that confidence is cracked. The rescue was a great ceremony of confusion, with accusations over the paternity of the errors that would have a point comical if it were not that air of the Marx Brothers stateroom suits him very badly to high politics. The vanishing point came when it seemed that the calm was restored: at the time - "and there seems to happen," a minister told Eurogroup-Dijsselbloem, in a fit of candor, that Cyprus will serve as a model for future crises.
Sincerity is overrated: there jumped alarms. Because none of that was apparent from the statement of the Eurogroup, which emphasized the "uniqueness" of Cyprus. The rescue brings out notable differences: this recipe is what Germany wants, and that same recipe is that the South-favor of the permanent bailout mechanism directly recapitalize troubled banks, such as agreed-now you can not permit.
The worst may be yet to come
Norman Birnbaum, sociologist
The paradox is that this debate is healthy: Europe needs to find a middle way between two extremes. It is not worth the excessive moral hazard (the continued socialization of losses by banks that excuse-bogey of fear of contagion). Nor it is denial of risk in operations such as Cyprus, threatening the continent's banking confidence. Europe is working on legislation on the matter, with loose deadlines and common sense: the idea is that anyone who has taken risks to take care of them if something goes wrong and not the taxpayer who pays the piper. In agree that left and right, north and south. But there is one key issue: the tempo in the application of this model. The Cypriot precedent had to be the rule in 2018 to allow time for banks to shore up troubled countries. Germany presses to accelerate. And the South, in the consolidation of banking, fears a money drain if there is precipitation.
The fracture is served. Cyprus brings out all that and more: the capital not just trust each other, has become tougher version IMF scaled with Greece, no one gets too heed the advice of the Commission, and the ECB has wrong on this issue and has been dangerously divided, if not disappeared, European sources indicate. That is the precarious state of mind of the Union.
The reforms are beginning to show some results in the South
And this happens just when the reforms are beginning to show some results. The periphery has regained competitiveness. Has reduced the fiscal and trade deficits at the expense of a hard adjustment, the North also has not helped. But Cyprus does blow up the deceptive quiet of late. The South begins to suspect, fatigued by successive rounds of austerity and reforms, with unemployment and poverty at record highs, dissatisfaction with the arrogant leadership of Berlin. In North eurodesencanto also rife, for other reasons. The German minister Wolfgang Schäuble has a curious theory about the criticism to Berlin: "It's like in school: when you take better notes, others are envious."
"The latest developments are worrying," said Guntram Wolff, the think tank Bruegel, "a political action needed to align North and South, but the opposite occurs and the situation is extremely fragile." Prospects do not accompany the short. According to European sources, "the world will continue to look to Cyprus, the weakest link of the euro despite the rescue. Are too many fringes: Nicosia no doubt if you can apply the required adjustment. It is a country with no structures to also expect a long recession, a scenario can not be excluded to the Greek ".
But most worrying are the cracks in the Eurogroup. Jakob Kirkegaard, of the Peterson Institute, South understands suspicions: "France and Spain are right, Germany should pay a political price for that precedent Cypriot tried to impose without consensus". For the expert, after all the hype, "deposits of less than 100,000 euros are safer than ever in Europe, whereas the big savers if they will be more careful," he concedes, "and that will pressure banks weak. "
Berlin must pay a political price for what happened
Jakob Kirkegaard, of the Peterson Institute
The Cyprus crisis leaves several lessons. A: "It shows that not all countries are equal, the interests of the great offer more," says Sharon Bowles MEP. Two: "There is not even solidarity among small: Malta or Luxembourg try to distance themselves from Cyprus, Ireland and Portugal, Greece. And it is difficult for France, Spain and Italy lead an alternative for their weakness, "says historian Kevin O'Rourke. And three: Berlin Cyprus has acted as a crusader, partly right, but his leadership has trimmed selfish: now establish the model of crisis resolution Cypriot benefits you. "If Berlin does that for economic illiteracy, is discredited. And if he does knowingly danger: these delicate moments rescues have a large impact on people's lives. If the pendulum is as the German side in a crisis so long, can derail the European experiment, "O'Rourke closes.
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